Predicting the Denver Nuggets' Next Moves Following Timofey Mozgov Trade
The Denver Nuggets might not be ready for a full-on fire sale just yet, but this is the perfect time for them to put their selling skills to the test.
With a championship field looking as wide open as it's been in some time, buyers are proving willing to part with future assets for immediate assistance. The Nuggets know that as well as anyone, having just poached two future first-round picks from the Cleveland Cavaliers for solid-but-not-spectacular center Timofey Mozgov, as Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported.
While the Nuggets have cautioned this isn't necessarily the sign of more moves to come, a realistic assessment of their current position might send them in that direction sooner rather than later.
"I'm the most optimistic guy in the world," Nuggets general manager Tim Connelly said, per Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post. "But at some point the numbers are the numbers. When we reach a point where we don't think it's realistic this year we're going to have to make some tough decisions."
Light on prospects and overloaded with the type of win-now contributors coveted by contenders, the Nuggets should find a lot of these decisions aren't as tough as they seem.
Ty Lawson looks untouchable, while JaVale McGee and Danilo Gallinari might be unmovable due to the combination of injury issues and the money still owed to them. Rookies Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris should have at least a short-term future in Denver, and Kenneth Faried could be around for the long haul.
But that still leaves a number of interesting trade chips up for grabs. The following deals would help the Nuggets maximize the value of those chips and restock their shelves for the future.
Nuggets, Heat Swap Reserve Point Guards
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Denver Nuggets receive: Norris Cole
Miami Heat receive: Nate Robinson
When LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were splitting the Miami Heat's playmaking duties, the team could afford mediocre production at the point guard position. But now that James is back in his native Ohio, the Heat need more capable hands to help Wade initiate the offense.
"The Heat's point-guard play must improve considerably for Miami to climb higher than the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference," noted Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
Miami may not have the highest ceiling anymore, but it has to pursue whatever its peak is. The Heat have too much invested in high-priced veterans like Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng to even consider waving the white flag.
Nate Robinson has seen his shooting percentages plummet to career lows across the board, but he had posted a .430/.388/.817 slash line over the previous three seasons. And his best work has often come with playoff contenders, whether that's providing a spark to the NBA finalist Boston Celtics in 2010 or helping the Derrick Rose-less Chicago Bulls score a first-round series win in 2013.
The Nuggets, who hold the 11th seed in an overcrowded Western Conference, aren't likely to see any postseason action this year. So, this swap allows them to get four years younger at the backup point guard spot, while giving restricted-free-agent-to-be Norris Cole a few months to prove he can be Lawson's long-term understudy for Ty Lawson.
Darrell Arthur Brings Back Pick from North of the Border
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Denver Nuggets receive: Tyler Hansbrough, 2017 second-round pick
Toronto Raptors receive: Darrell Arthur
Upon first glance, the Toronto Raptors look like championship contenders. Their .706 winning percentage is the NBA's fifth-best, and their plus-6.1 net efficiency rating also checks in at fifth overall.
But history doesn't like the odds of a team as one-sided as Toronto. While the Raptors have the league's second-best offensive efficiency, their 22nd standing at the opposite end could prove to be a fatal flaw. None of the NBA's last 10 champions has ranked outside of the top 10 in defensive efficiency, and six of those 10 have found themselves in the top five.
Darrell Arthur wouldn't solve all of Toronto's defensive issues on his own, but pairing him with the versatile James Johnson could be a way to help stop the bleeding. Arthur isn't a rim protector by any means, but his instincts and athleticism allow him to handle a variety of defensive assignments.
"How comfortable were the Nuggets with Arthur's defensive capabilities?" Dempsey wrote. "Here's some of the players he was asked to guard: Dirk Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Zach Randolph."
Arthur has also been a valuable weapon in the mid-range (career 43.2 percent shooting from 10 to 16 feet, 40.4 percent from 16 feet to the three-point line), and he's been working on expanding his range to beyond the arc the past few seasons. In other words, he would help open up driving lanes for Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Terrence Ross to exploit.
Hansbrough, whose contract comes off the books at season's end, would be a capable placeholder for the Nuggets. But Denver does this deal for that second-round pick, which could have nice value by 2017 depending on the Raptors' ability to maintain this core and bring young guys like Ross and Jonas Valanciunas along.
J.J. Hickson to OKC for Jeremy Lamb's Potential
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Denver Nuggets receive: Jeremy Lamb, Nick Collison
Oklahoma City Thunder receive: J.J. Hickson, two future second-round picks
It was easy to stay away from the panic button when the Oklahoma City Thunder were scrapping to survive the losses of both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. But it's tough to not be at least slightly concerned with the Thunder having had each perennial All-Star around for the last two games and dropping them both by an average of 23.5 points.
While it's still too early to panic, it's time to get proactive—especially with the red-hot Phoenix Suns pushing the postseason further out of reach.
The Thunder need more consistent production on the interior, and they seem to know it. ESPN's Ohm Youngmisuk reported that Oklahoma City recently discussed a deal that would have brought back 7-foot scorer Brook Lopez.
J.J. Hickson isn't the same caliber of contributor, but he is on pace to average a double-double per 36 minutes for the fourth time in the last five seasons. He could help man the middle behind sophomore Steven Adams and packs a far greater offensive punch than current reserve Kendrick Perkins.
The Thunder might hesitate to part with a glue guy like Nick Collison, but the recent acquisition of Dion Waiters proves OKC is willing to take a chemistry risk. Waiters' arrival also buries former lottery pick Jeremy Lamb deeper on the bench, though he was fighting for minutes even before the transaction.
Denver can afford to be patient with the 22-year-old Lamb, who has shown flashes of what he could become if he puts it all together. Collison could be a calming influence on a locker room that could see some dramatic changes. And while parting with two picks might seem like a curious move for a rebuilding club, the Nuggets have avenues to replenish that stock in separate transactions.
Arron Afflalo to Portland for Future First-Rounder
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Denver Nuggets receive: Thomas Robinson, Dorell Wright and 2016 first-round pick
Portland Trail Blazers receive: Arron Afflalo
The Portland Trail Blazers look a lot like last season's 54-win group—only better. Their offense is still explosive, their defense has significantly improved and Damian Lillard has continued to push his superstar ceiling even higher.
But depth remains an issue, as the Blazers sit 25th in bench scoring with 26.6 points per game, via HoopsStats.com.
In Arron Afflalo, Portland could inject its reserve group with a steady two-way contributor who should fit this system like a glove. He's a career 38.8 percent three-point shooter, so the Blazers would only add to what's already a prolific perimeter attack. And he's always been a pesky defender, so coach Terry Stotts would have another stopper to throw at opposing scorers.
Parting with the pick stings a bit for the Blazers, but they're in a position where it makes sense to value today over tomorrow. Plus, this move could have one big benefit down the line: It would safeguard the Blazers against Wesley Matthews potentially leaving in free agency this summer. Even if the Blazers want to keep Matthews, they have to find enough money to keep him, LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez happy.
That's where things get interesting on Denver's end. Not only would the Nuggets land a first-round pick for someone they needed only a part-time player (Evan Fournier) and late second-rounder to acquire last summer, they would net one from a team with a very uncertain future. This is a move worth making even if the Blazers continue playing at a high level, but it's grand larceny if Portland takes a step back in 2015-16.
Thomas Robinson and Dorrell Wright are mostly salary fillers, though the former has a shot to play his way into a future with the Nuggets.
Kings Get Wilson Chandler, Nuggets Pick Up Prospects
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Denver Nuggets receive: Nik Stauskas and Derrick Williams
Sacramento Kings receive: Wilson Chandler and Alonzo Gee
While buyers should all be harassing the Nuggets, sellers should be blowing up the phones of the Sacramento Kings. The Kings are desperate to contend sooner rather than later, and opposing executives might be able to use those desires against them.
"It's kinda like we were in San Quentin. Now we're in Motel 6. But I want to go to the Four Seasons," Kings majority owner Vivek Ranadive said earlier this season, per Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee.
Wilson Chandler, and to a lesser extent Alonzo Gee, could help make the Kings better right now. Maybe not playoff good, but the potential reward could be high enough for Sacramento to bite. It needs more scoring, shooting and defense on the perimeter, and Chandler is capable of filling any of those roles.
But for everything Chandler does well, it's hard to imagine the 27-year-old moving past his current level: a solid complementary piece. Denver doesn't need that right now. It needs players with potential, and former lottery picks Nik Stauskas and Derrick Williams certainly fit that bill.
Williams, the second overall pick in 2011, is shooting a career-best 44.9 percent from the field this season. His combination of size and athleticism allows him to fill multiple positions, so the Nuggets could mold him however they see fit.
But the real prize is Stauskas, the eighth selection in this past draft. His development has been stunted by the presence of Ben McLemore, but at his best Stauskas is a lights-out shooter with the ball skills to find his own shot or create looks for his teammates. Between him and Harris, the Nuggets could have their shooting guard spot covered for years to come.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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