Andrew Luck Must Reach His Full Potential to Upset the Denver Broncos

Exactly one year after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in a wild comeback victory for his first playoff win, Andrew Luck knocked off another fifth seed for his second playoff victory.

This one wasn't quite as nerve-wracking.

Last season, neither Luck nor the defense came to play early in the game, and the Colts would need to overcome a 28-point deficit to pick up the victory. On Sunday, Luck showed his evolution, controlling the game from start to finish en route to a dominating victory.

The 2013 Wild Card version of Luck was erratic, making costly mistakes, but making up for them with big plays in critical moments. The 2014 Wild Card version of Luck was controlling, accurate and calculating.

He still made some jaw-dropping throws, but he mixed them in with easy dump-off passes to accumulate the yards after catch.

Running back Dan Herron finished with 10 catches for 85 yards, becoming just the second Colts running back in playoff history to record a double-digit-catch game (Joseph Addai in the 2006 Super Bowl). Zurlon Tipton added a six-yard catch as well and tight end Jack Doyle, primarily a flats receiver, caught three quick outs for nine yards.

But while Luck was accurate on short throws and safe with the football, it didn't mean he was sacrificing the long ball.

Luck averaged over 8.5 yards per throw on the day, which would have led the league if thrown over a season-long span this season. Luck routinely attempted and completed a few outlandish throws.

His 37-yard touchdown pass to Donte Moncrief in the third quarter, which was made while Luck was on the run and being tripped by a defensive lineman, was called magical by head coach Chuck Pagano, per Dan Hanzus of NFL.com.

"The one magical play to Moncrief was Andrew at his finest. He's a maestro back there, he's unbelievable. He made great decisions today and he made them all day long. It was a great game for him," he said.

It was the perfect example of what Luck is capable of when playing at full capacity.

Unfortunately for the Colts and Luck, they need that kind of performance yet again.

The Colts may have been able to get away with a few Luck mistakes, if he would have made them, on Sunday against a Cincinnati Bengals team that could not stop the run or move the ball offensively. Against the Denver Broncos next week, they'll face a much more difficult task.

Team	Pass DVOA (rank)	Run DVOA	Pass Def. DVOA	Run Def. DVOA	Sacks
Bengals	6.7% (20)	-1.0% (10)	-7.3% (5)	1.3% (28)	20 (32)
Broncos	41.3% (3)	2.6% (7)	-4.9% (7)	-23.7% (3)	41 (9)

The Broncos defense is one of the league's best at stopping the run, so expecting Luck to have the kind of help he did from the running game on Sunday would seem foolhardy at best. They also have a much more dangerous pass rush, which may make the Colts' stellar offensive line play in the Wild Card Round a thing of the past very quickly.

Then, of course, there is Peyton Manning.

The Colts can't load the box to stop C.J. Anderson and the running game like they did against Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Manning is a master of reading defenses and taking what they give him.

Blitz? He'll set up the quick pass that will kill a defense with yards after the catch. Stack the box to stop the run? He'll hit you over the top and stretch your lone safety out. Drop back and keep the Denver receivers in front of you? He'll run a draw for five yards and grind it out.

Let's just say he's no Andy Dalton, despite an exaggerated reputation of demise in the playoffs.

In order to win on the road, against the premier quarterback of this era with one of the most individually talented teams, the Colts will need Luck to be at his finest yet again.

He wasn't at his finest against the New England Patriots last season, and the result was a 43-22 road loss to the New England Patriots.

No, he wasn't as bad as his 53.0 passer rating would suggest. And, no, not all of his four interceptions were his fault. He did still throw for over eight yards per attempt and two touchdowns, after all, and the defense and run game did him zero favors on the day.

But Luck also wasn't good enough to win. Not against a top-tier team. He wasn't careful enough with the ball, mistimed a few key throws and continued to perpetuate the narrative that he turns the ball over too much in key games.

Unfortunately, that narrative carried over into the 2014 regular season as well.

Luck threw eight interceptions in the Colts' five losses this season, including seven in the four losses to playoff teams (Denver, New England, Pittsburgh and Dallas) compared to just seven touchdown passes.

While Luck's defense put him in a big hole early in each of those four games, Luck didn't exactly help the problem with his turnovers either.

In each of those games, including last year's playoff loss to New England, Luck showed his potential. He wasn't the main reason the Colts lost or even anywhere near the top of the list. He averaged over seven yards per attempt in those five losses and still averaged two touchdown passes per contest.

But now we've seen Luck put it all together in a playoff game. We've seen the full package, running the offense as well as anybody could and dominating the Bengals as a result.

Had the Colts not had five drops on the day, had Herron been able to hold on to the football or had the offensive line not been quite so penalty-heavy, they could have scored near 40 points.

Make no mistake, Luck was phenomenal.

And if you want to be a great quarterback in this league, you need those phenomenal playoff performances.

But the thing about those performances is that if you go out and throw three interceptions and lose the next week, they tend to be forgotten pretty quickly.

The ones that aren't forgotten are the ones that are strung together. If the Colts want any chance at upsetting the Broncos and anybody else in these playoffs, they'll need Luck to string together some awe-inspiring playoff performances.

The easiest task is behind him. He got the first one.

Now, on the road against the defending AFC champions and his predecessor, Luck has to do it again.