The NBA's Best and Worst Halftime Adjusters
Halftime adjustments are a big part of any NBA game, as they are in all sports. Taking what has happened in the first half and applying changes within the context of your offensive and defensive systems can often mean the difference between a win and a loss.
With that in mind, I set out to find a way to quantify halftime adjustments. One such way I measured this was to find the differential in all 30 teams' first-half Net Rating and third-quarter Net Rating, reasoning that halftime adjustments made would reveal themselves in the third quarter and that a big spike in the fourth was likely due to other factors. Net Rating is found by subtracting Defensive Rating from Offensive Rating (O-Rtg - D-Rtg = Net-Rtg).
Using that calculation, these were the results. (Note: All numbers are current through December 31, 2014.)
The Utah Jazz, with a plus-22.7 Net-Rtg differential between the first half and the third quarter, came out on top, significantly ahead of the L.A. Clippers, who checked in with a plus-13.8 differential. The Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks were tied at the bottom with a minus-14.8 differential. When I saw that the Golden State Warriors were the third-worst team by this measurement with a minus-10.1 differential, it became obvious that it was flawed.
See, the Warriors only performed badly in this metric because they destroyed teams by 16.8 points per 100 possessions in the first half of games. That number dropped to only 6.7 points per 100 possessions in the third quarter, but that's still a really, really good performance.
Similarly, the Jazz led the way in Net-Rtg differential, but much of that is because they were so terrible in first halves. The Jazz were outscored by 11.6 points per 100 possessions in the first half and then outscored opponents by 11.1 points per 100 possessions in the third quarter...which still wouldn't even tie the game.
And that massive first-half deficit is a big reason why the Jazz are tied for last in the league with just one victory after trailing at halftime. So Utah's halftime adjustments are getting the team back into games, but ultimately it's not accomplishing much in the way of wins and losses.
The three other teams with only one such victory—the Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics and New York Knicks—each sit at least six games under .500. Of the four teams tied with two wins after trailing at halftime, only the Atlanta Hawks currently have a winning record.
Conversely, take a look at the teams with the most wins after trailing at halftime. The Blazers lead the way with 10, followed by the Toronto Raptors with eight, Phoenix Suns with seven and Memphis Grizzlies with six. The Chicago Bulls, Washington Wizards, Cleveland Cavaliers, San Antonio Spurs, Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic have five.
Of those 10 teams, only the Magic have a sub-.500 record, and the other nine sport a combined .651 winning percentage.
The Bucks, who are one of those five teams with five wins after trailing at halftime, also lead the NBA with eight losses after leading at halftime, indicating that they've had trouble countering the halftime adjustments of their opponents.
The Charlotte Hornets have also blown eight halftime leads, while the Sacramento Kings and Celtics—there they are again—have each lost seven games after leading at halftime, and the Magic and Heat have lost six such games. Each of these teams is at least five games under .500.
Five teams—Houston, Denver, Cleveland, Golden State and Atlanta—have only blown two halftime leads, while Portland has done it just once. Chicago and Washington are the only two teams who have yet to lose a game they've led at halftime this season. Each of these teams is at least four games over .500.
It should be no surprise that that group of teams has been excellent at countering adjustments. One thing that becomes clear when looking at each of these metrics is that the Blazers are the NBA's best team at making halftime adjustments this season.
Their Net-Rtg differential is only 0.6 (plus-5.6 in the first half and plus-6.2 in the third quarter), but they've won 10 games after trailing at halftime and only blown one halftime lead. Terry Stotts and his staff, as well as LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Wes Matthews and the rest, are doing something right.
