Biggest Surprises and Disappointments for San Antonio Spurs
Aside from completely collapsing, there was little that the San Antonio Spurs could have done to start the 2014-15 NBA season that would have been viewed as surprising.
Any drop-offs in production would simply have been seen as a symptom of the Spurs' post-championship lull, while any improvements would seem characteristic given the team's gradual upward trend over the past few years.
Even so, the Spurs' classic 18-11 start isn't without its fair share of pleasant surprises and alarming disappointments.
Though the franchise may be universally recognized as a paragon of consistency, there are quite a few notes concerning individual and team play that warrant discussion given their unexpected positive or negative impacts on the team's mostly successful start to the season.
Disappointment: Health
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It might be out of their control, but the Spurs' never-ending string of injuries has been quite worrisome for more than one reason.
For starters, the frequency with which key players have missed extended time is vexing. Though the team has only played 29 games, it has already seen Tiago Splitter, Marco Belinelli, Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker miss long stretches (Leonard is still out). Meanwhile, Patty Mills has yet to log a minute this season as he continues his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery.
Most alarming, the absences—particularly those of Splitter and Leonard—have revealed several weaknesses that don't seem on the verge of being fixed.
With Splitter gone, the Spurs found themselves playing Aron Baynes as the second center off the bench. With Tim Duncan's minutes monitored carefully, Baynes was thrust into a huge role for which he was hardly prepared or qualified. This is not to say that he was bad; on the contrary, he was quite impressive. But with Splitter's injury history and the need to preserve Duncan's health, Baynes is simply too raw to carry such a heavy burden.
As for Leonard, his absence has exposed the glaring holes in San Antonio's defense, something that most recently came to light during Monday's contest against the Los Angeles Clippers. Though San Antonio broke season records with its offensive efficiency, L.A. was on the Spurs' tail throughout the night—a product of the Spurs' weak defense sans Leonard.
The injury plague hasn't derailed San Antonio by any means, but if it continues—or if any of the players return at less than 100 percent—the long-term consequences could potentially be dire.
Surprise: Tony Parker's 3-Point Shooting
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Tony Parker is by no means a long-range sniper (or he hadn't been in years past, at least).
Despite having previously lacked the offensive weapon, however, Parker has emerged in 2014-15 as a deadly threat from beyond the arc.
And contrary to what you might think, his three-point success is not relative to his previous struggles. Compared to the rest of the league, he has been an elite long-range shooter, having set plenty of benchmarks with his current clip of 64.3 percent—a mark that, as Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney noted earlier in December, casts a shadow over the rest of the league.
"One month of NBA basketball has come with its share of surprises, though none more incredible than the fact that Tony Parker ranks – at a 66.7-percent clip – as the league’s most accurate three-point shooter. Parker does not gun from the perimeter by trade. His career is predicated on an ability to drive down the seams of an opposing defense, after which he flips in shots around the rim and lures opponents into collapsing on his drives. Those talents remain, though Parker has taken to further complementing the Spurs’ complete offense through marksmanship from the perimeter as the situation calls for it.
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Though Parker has not attempted as many threes as some of the league's other long-range threats, the impact is still far-reaching. His newfound ability has given San Antonio an offensive boost on more than one occasion while also forcing defenses to press up on him (whereas they'd be more likely to slack off in previous seasons).
Though it remains to be seen whether he can sustain his hot shooting, his drastic improvement has been one of San Antonio's most pleasant surprises to date.
Disappointment: Kyle Anderson's Shooting
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Perhaps I'm judging Kyle Anderson too harshly.
After all, he's just a rookie. He's the only new face in a Spurs uniform this year, and the team's system is hardly an easy one to break into.
Even so, expectations for Anderson have been high since he was drafted with the final first-round pick by San Antonio. His high IQ and impressive distributing ability made him an obvious fit with the defending champs.
Yet Anderson—who has gotten a much bigger role than anyone could have expected due to the team's injury problem—hasn't made the immediate impact that many had hoped he would make.
He is averaging just over three points per game on 35 percent shooting and has not yet demanded respect from defenders when standing beyond the arc. His poor marksmanship has hurt the team, which likes to space the floor.
Though his play has been trending upward, and his occasional flash of stardom hints toward a long, strong future with San Antonio, Anderson has simply not made the offensive impact that many had expected from a rookie who was seemingly born to wear silver and black.
Surprise: Cory Joseph
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The topic of Cory Joseph as a positive 2014-15 surprise has been rehashed plenty of times, but his play continues to feed the hype.
Though fans had speculated that Joseph would add his name to a long list of Spurs guards who exceeded expectations when given a greater role, the fourth-year point guard continues to draw second glances with each passing game.
He is distributing, defending and scoring well, exhibiting plenty of confidence and leadership in a time when San Antonio needs it most. With Patty Mills still sidelined and Tony Parker having just recently returned after missing eight of his last nine games, Joseph has been the team's sole pure point guard—and his play is making it difficult to reimagine him as a third-stringer going forward.
Per Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News (subscription required):
"Last year’s championship team was already one of the deepest in NBA history at full strength. And now, with third-stringers Aron Baynes and Cory Joseph performing ably in replacement of the aforementioned pair, Popovich could have even more options at his disposal.
Joseph has been especially good of late, scoring 10 of his 12 points in the fourth quarter of last week’s victory at Memphis after Tony Parker went down with a mild hamstring strain, before tying his career-high with 18 in Saturday’s conquest of Minnesota.
Those outbursts boosted Joseph’s scoring average to a career-high 8.7 points. He’s also shooting 50.4 percent, another personal standard, with a 17.4 Player Efficiency Rating — you guessed it, his best ever.
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Every year, it seems, a new Spurs guard proves himself as a valuable rotation player and hidden gem. First, it was George Hill, then Gary Neal, followed by Danny Green and, last year, Patty Mills. Now, it's Joseph's turn—and with increased visibility, he has exceeded any and all preseason expectations.
Disappointment: Ambiguity in the Western Conference
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The Western Conference is always remarkably competitive, so it's tough to get down on San Antonio for currently sitting in the conference's seventh slot.
That said, the number of contenders out West has seemingly reached an all-time high, and San Antonio's low seeding is not by any means guaranteed to be temporary.
Not only would the Spurs be a bottom-two seed if the regular season ended today, but they would also finish second to last in their division. They are sitting behind the Memphis Grizzlies, one of the NBA's hottest teams at full health; the Houston Rockets, whose recent signing of Josh Smith (per Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports) adds to an abundant collection of talent; and the Dallas Mavericks, whose contender status was solidified with the addition of Rajon Rondo.
Beyond them, the Western Conference has its fair share of teams whose starts to the NBA season have been more impressive than that of San Antonio. The Golden State Warriors, Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers all rank ahead, and the Oklahoma City Thunder—though currently ranked 10th in the conference—are surging following the returns of stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
It's a terrible time to be a contender in the Western Conference, and though all San Antonio needs for a shot at the title is a playoff berth, it's disheartening to look at the defending champions as one of many championship hopefuls rather than the distinct favorites many had originally tabbed them as.
Surprise: Tim Duncan's MVP-Caliber Play
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At this point, should we even be surprised?
Tim Duncan has consistently established himself as a timeless wonder, and in what many forecast to be his final playing season, the 38-year-old veteran is once again dominating the NBA as if he had just entered the league fresh out of Wake Forest.
However, despite the trademarked excellence that fans have come to associate with Duncan, the future Hall of Famer's 2014-15 campaign is nonetheless turning heads. Not only has he overachieved for someone his age, but Duncan is contributing in a manner that blows away his other standout campaigns in recent seasons.
Despite a relatively slow start, Duncan has emerged as a reliable source of two-way production even with increased pressure from defenses resulting from the extended absence of Tiago Splitter, his partner in the post.
On the season, he is averaging 16 points, 11 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game—a mark good enough for fourth in the entire league—despite playing just over 32 minutes each night.
Recently, though, he has taken his game to new heights. With increased playing time due to longer games—San Antonio went to triple overtime in back-to-back contests—the Big Fundamental is filling up the stat sheet with over 20 points (on nearly 50 percent shooting) and 12 rebounds, along with 2.6 blocks per contest.
His career production has followed a relatively level path despite the expected decline that comes with age, but this year, there's little doubt that his play is trending upwards.
Ranking 12th in PER, Duncan has not only emerged as one of San Antonio's best players but also as one of the league's most dynamic two-way bigs thus far.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise cited.
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