Predicting San Francisco 49ers' Biggest Roster Moves This Offseason
Combining the San Francisco 49ers with predictions of the biggest offseason moves isn’t something that would normally inspire much attention or controversy.
General manager Trent Baalke is known for being conservative in free agency and implementing a best player available strategy in the draft. Neither approach lends itself to landing premier free agents or big-name draftees.
In other words, Baalke just won’t break the bank when it comes to signing players.
He didn’t pursue highly prized defensive backs Aqib Talib and Jairus Byrd or receivers Eric Decker and Golden Tate last year. He’ll likely do the same with the likes of prominent defenders Ndamukong Suh and Darrelle Revis and wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Jeremy Maclin in 2015.
As for their own free agents, the 49ers will face a number of critical decisions.
Do they retain an aging Frank Gore or underachieving Michael Crabtree? What about the problematic Mike Iupati—a mauling run-blocker but deficient pass-protector at left guard?
Do they extend top corners Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox or re-sign backup-turned-starting linebackers Dan Skuta and Michael Wilhoite?
Draft considerations are yet another matter that will require an extensive breakdown and analysis after the conclusion of this 2014 season.
But for the purposes of this article, we’ll focus solely on San Francisco’s tactics in free agency.
So with that, let’s unveil the six predictions for the 49ers’ biggest moves this offseason.
Note: Other than the soon-to-be-departed head coach Jim Harbaugh, little, if any rumors exist in regard to potential moves by the 49ers this offseason. As such, this piece will focus on team needs and make predictions based on franchise historical trends and reasonable speculation.
6. Culliver Walks, Cox and Cook Stay
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Putting the 49ers’ gravitation toward last names beginning with the letter “C” aside, much offseason activity will involve the cornerback position.
Coming off a lost 2013 campaign due to injury, Culliver has enjoyed a career year.
He recorded a fumble-return touchdown in Week 1 and has since gathered three interceptions (second on the team) and 12 pass breakups for the 49ers. He’s also tied for fourth on the team with 42 combined tackles.
The 2011 third-round pick out of South Carolina has missed just two games and ranks an impressive 17th among 108 corners graded by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Culliver earned positive scores in nine of 13 games as well. He didn’t allow a touchdown in coverage until Week 6 and has surrendered only four since that Oct. 13 contest.
Yet at the completion of his four-year, $2.6 million rookie contact, Culliver is due for a substantial raise.
Cornerbacks are arguably the third-most valued position after quarterbacks and elite pass-rushers. In this pass-crazy NFL, general managers covet assets who can lock down opposing receivers in coverage.
Even though Tramaine Brock signed a bargain four-year, $14 million deal before this season, San Francisco’s No. 1 corner was an undrafted free agent out of small-school Bellhaven back in 2010.
Culliver was the No. 90 overall selection from a major SEC institution. Any sort of team-friendly terms just aren’t a possibility for No. 29.
As such, Baalke will keep the salary cap in mind when letting go of the 26-year-old and opting instead for Perrish Cox and Chris Cook, who are only one year older.
Cox has compiled a team-best five interceptions and 18 pass breakups while operating under a one-year, $695,000 deal. He’s certainly worth a more lucrative contract but not one that will affect the 49ers’ flexibility under the cap.
Cook, meanwhile, saw action in just six games before suffering a season-ending hamstring injury. But when healthy, he did net a plus-2.0 grade from Pro Football Focus while playing under a meager one-year, $730,000 contract.
As far as Baalke is concerned, why settle for one when you can retain two for a more fiscally responsible price?
5. Sign Free Agent WR Kenny Britt
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Bear with us for a bit here as we explain this next selection.
After a productive first two years in the NFL, Kenny Britt severely underachieved while burning all bridges with the Tennessee Titans and nearly flaming out of the league.
A series of off-the-field arrests and on-field insubordination led to a 2013 campaign in which Britt started just three games and compiled a whopping 11 catches for 97 yards.
The versatile 6’3”, 215-pounder, however, produced 703 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie in 2009. He then totaled 775 yards, nine scores and a fantastic 18.3-yard average in only 12 games the following year.
He compiled just seven touchdowns and 974 yards over the next two seasons combined, not to mention nearly being forced out of the league altogether.
But fortunately for Britt, the St. Louis Rams gave him an opportunity—and one that the sixth-year pro has fully honored.
He leads the Rams with 607 yards receiving and ranks fourth in the NFL with 17.3 yards per catch. He’s also managed three touchdowns while playing with two different backup quarterbacks, including a 21-yard score against the 49ers in Week 9.
The immensely skilled 26-year-old brings great size and can line up both outside and in the slot. He would provide Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers with a big-play, downfield and red-zone target.
Britt will also be available on the cheap. Although he surely met most of his bonus clauses, only $550,000 of his one-year, $1.5 million contract was guaranteed this year.
Past controversial behavior notwithstanding, Baalke must recognize this tremendous talent and bring him to a struggling 49ers offense that desperately needed his services in 2014.
The team will need him even more in 2015 (more on this later).
4. Re-Sign a Franchise All-Timer and Future Hall of Famer
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Believe it or not, this next entry could actually don the colors of another squad in 2015.
But first allow us to frame the narrative.
Frank Gore recently reminded the viewing world of his rarefied abilities on the gridiron.
He racked up 158 yards on 26 carries and a 6.1-yard average against the San Diego Chargers in Week 16. That included a 51-yard score in which he broke multiple tackles, stiff-armed league-best safety Eric Weddle and outran the entire Chargers defense.
Wait, really?
The 31-year-old running back—at an age when most of his positional brethren are no longer effective, if they’re not already retired—registered the fifth-highest rushing total of his legendary career and best single-game mark since 2009.
He’s also just 38 yards away from 1,000 on the season and 71 yards from eclipsing 11,000 for his career.
Again, how can that be?
Well, because Gore is a one-of-a-kind talent with one of the highest football IQs and most instinctual feels for the game you’ll find at the running back position.
His smarts, patented low-to-the-ground running style and knack for always falling forward for extra yards have fostered his Hall of Fame-caliber resume.
For those who require the optics provided by raw numbers, Gore is atop the 49ers’ franchise leaderboard with 10,929 yards and ranks second with 64 touchdowns.
So, what’s the problem?
He plays a position that the NFL has continually devalued and one where teams are extremely reluctant to pay, especially backs on the wrong side of 30. And his backup, second-round pick Carlos Hyde, is the Niners’ future every-down back.
Plus, with Harbaugh coaching elsewhere next season, San Francisco’s new head coach will understandably want to start fresh and move forward with the 24-year-old Hyde.
Yet there’s just one problem with, well, those aforementioned problems.
Gore, the backfield savant who is approaching that 11,000-yard threshold while sporting the red and gold, still has plenty left in the tank.
He showed it Saturday and will do so again in the season finale against a stout Arizona Cardinals defense that rates No. 8 against the run.
Oh, did we also mention that Gore is a coach’s dream who’s beloved and respected across the league?
Whether Baalke and CEO Jed York promote from within or bring in a guy like the Cardinals’ own defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, the new sideline general will want the services of No. 21.
He’s just too vital as a runner, pass-protector and leader on and off the field.
The three-year, $19.2 million extension (with $13.5 million guaranteed) Gore signed before the 2011 season-opener will end soon.
But more importantly, his next contract will require fewer years and even less guaranteed money.
Gore is exactly the type of player who will accept a cap-friendly deal to stay with the team that drafted him in 2005.
Baalke and Co. will honor one of the 49ers’ greatest players, one who’s repeatedly honored the franchise’s proud traditions and always believed that he’s been “blessed” to wear a Niners uniform his entire career, via ESPN.com’s Mike Sando.
The same front office that wanted Gore to be a “49er for life” back in 2011 will make that possible once again.
And like Gore said at the time of his last contract signing, “Hopefully (I’ll) get my name on the 10-year wall and break some more records out here.”
Make that 11, Frank.
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3. A Not-so-Fond Farewell to No. 15
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Since being drafted No. 10 overall in 2009, wide receiver Michael Crabtree seemed to progress after each of his first four NFL campaigns.
He increased both his catch and yardage totals every year, culminating with 85 receptions for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns in 2012. He then cemented that annual progression during the ensuing postseason.
Crabtree logged nine catches for 119 yards and two scores against the Green Bay Backers in the Wild Card Round, followed by another 109 yards and a score in Super Bowl XLVII.
The 6’2”, 215-pounder out of Texas Tech had finally realized his potential and would explode on the stat sheet moving forward.
Regrettably, the former first-round pick has been a shell of his once productive self ever since.
Crabtree suffered a torn Achilles tendon prior to the 2013 season. He suited up in just five games, recording 19 catches for 284 yards and a touchdown.
He provided a slim measure of hope during that year’s playoffs when he amassed eight receptions for 125 yards in a win over the Packers at Lambeau Field.
But he then faltered to just seven grabs for 78 yards over the next two postseason games combined. That included his poor play against Seattle Seahawks’ cornerback Richard Sherman in the NFC Championship Game.
Most recently, Crabtree has mustered just a 10.8-yard average on 64 catches for a second-rate total of 657 yards and four touchdowns this season. He’s logged eight games with three or fewer receptions and another five with fewer than 30 yards.
Kaepernick’s regression and the Niners’ overall issues on offense have played somewhat of a role in Crabtree’s decline.
Yet the same cannot be said for his 10 drops and No. 100 overall ranking among 113 wideouts graded by Pro Football Focus.
The same receiver who ranked 44th as a rookie and moved all the way up to fourth in 2012 has collapsed to the bottom-15 in the entire league. The once-dynamic pass-catcher in space has fallen to No. 37 with 245 yards after the catch and No. 72 with a 3.8-yard average.
And in more traditional metrics, he is 94th with just 10.3 yards per catch all told.
So, at the conclusion of his six-year, $32 million rookie deal, No. 15 will not receive a penny more from the 49ers.
They’ll bid an easy farewell to their first-rounder who only once fit the bill of a No. 1 wide receiver.
We’ve already made the case for Kenny Britt and argued previously why the 49ers must land an impact wideout in the 2015 draft. We even listed some intriguing prospects.
Crabtree’s big-picture bust as a top-10 draft pick certainly helped fuel those arguments.
And it’s sufficient reason for the 49ers to let him walk in free agency and forgo any such five-year, $44.8 million deals at the end of this season.
2. Pass Pro or No Pass Pro—Lock Up the Mauler at Left Guard
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There was a time when a certain burly Samoan landed on the 49ers via the 17th overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft.
The 6’5”, 330-pound Idaho graduate arrived in San Francisco as a long-term reinforcement along the offensive line.
He went on to start the first 60 games of his career at left guard, earning first-team All-Pro in 2012 and Pro Bowl nods in both 2012 and 2013. Missing four games in that latter season didn’t detract from his award-winning play when healthy for the other 12.
This interior mauler has also held a league-wide renown as a premier run-blocker.
The advanced statisticians at Pro Football Focus have awarded him with double-digit positive grades in that category for all but one of his four NFL campaigns. He’s also occupied a spot in the top 15 among guards overall in every season but 2013.
Yet problems have recently arisen for this mauling lineman in pass protection.
He has plummeted to No. 58 out of 79 in pass blocking due to his minus-7.8 score and league-worst seven sacks allowed.
He’s never been praised for stellar work in protecting the quarterback. But seven is nearly double his previous career high.
With just one game away from entering free agency, the only team he’s ever known faces a critical decision.
Do the 49ers re-up the former first-round road-grader and live with his average to below-average pass blocking? Or do they shy away from his impending gargantuan market value, let him walk and promote from within?
Brandon Thomas—the third-round pick with first-round talent—certainly comes to mind.
In case you hadn’t already realized it, we’re currently debating the merits of signing Mike Iupati to a substantial multiyear deal.
Iupati’s five-year, $15.1 million rookie contract expires this season. His modest 2014 cap hit of $4.6 million also ranks 27th among the scores of impending free agents.
Combine his bargain salary, Pro Bowl-level production and otherwise barren market for available interior linemen, and the 27-year-old is due a massive pay increase.
The question, of course, is: Do the 49ers meet the ensuing contract demands? Do they lock him in alongside the already extended left tackle Joe Staley, centers Daniel Kilgore and Marcus Martin, right guard Alex Boone and right tackle Anthony Davis?
The answer, for our purposes, is a resounding of course.
In the scenario where they’ve parted ways with Crabtree and Culliver and have given cap-conscious deals to Gore, Cox and Cook, signing No. 77 is the operative move.
Even though Iupati and the entire line underperformed, injuries, a lack of continuity and a generally confused approach on offense turned this season into an unfortunate aberration.
Just infuse this group with good health and an offensive coordinator who commits to a consistent game plan that’s geared toward the run. Do this, and watch how Iupati and Co. will thrive once again in the trenches and reignite the 49ers’ power-run identity.
Kaepernick will take fewer unnecessary sacks, and the offensive line will respond in kind.
Let Iupati’s new deal break the proverbial bank; he’s worth it.
York…Baalke…Paraag Marathe—you’re on the clock.
1. Trade, Cut or Otherwise Wave Goodbye to Vernon Davis
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Yes, Vernon Davis will play elsewhere in 2015.
The same Pro Bowl tight end who ranked fifth in the NFL with 13 touchdowns last year will no longer catch—or not catch—passes from a 49ers quarterback.
It’s just a matter of whether it comes via trade, release or retirement to promote his brand.
So, buyers beware—investing in Davis’ stock as a 49er won’t return any value moving forward, if it hadn’t completely failed in ROI metrics already.
The absurdity of human stock trading aside, why would San Francisco let go of such a prodigious talent? Why would Baalke send one of the league’s fastest and most physically gifted tight ends packing?
Because the reasoning lies solely in his metal capacity, or at least the cognitive drop-off following a minor physical setback.
After Davis hauled in two touchdowns in the season opener, an awkward tackle against the Chicago Bears a week later rendered him to the sidelines in Week 3 with an ankle injury.
When he returned to the field against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4, another rough takedown led to back spasms that lingered for some time.
And with that, Davis was never the same…his mind hasn't been right.
His four catches for 44 yards and two scores in the 49ers’ Week 1 win over the Dallas Cowboys ended up representing Davis’ benchmark totals for the entire season.
Seven games culminated in two or fewer receptions, while five others produced single-digit receiving yards.
Best yet, his last two box scores have yielded two targets, zero catches and zero yards.
A season that began with Davis somewhat distracted with contract holdouts and promotional opportunities off the field has deteriorated into a campaign where his mindset is anything but conducive to gridiron functionality.
A couple of injuries, a limited offensive role and a few hard-hitting defenses reduced Davis to something less than even a shell of his 13-touchdown self from 2013.
Not since his rookie campaign has the 6’3”, 4.3-running tight end compiled less than 30 catches and 300 yards receiving.
Davis’ 9.4-yard average is a career low, while his six drops rank third-most among his 66 positional counterparts, per Pro Football Focus.
Sitting four spots from dead last in PFF’s rankings solidifies one of the all-time unproductive campaigns from an upper-echelon player and former top-10 draft pick.
OK, so assuming Davis at least has the desire to remain in the league, do the 49ers seek some kind of return in a trade or just release him and his $7.02 million cap hit outright?
Trading Davis for a mid-round draft pick would certainly entail the more likely outcome.
The man who wears No. 85 is just too good to flat-out cut him.
As for the potential destination, what about the Cleveland Browns? They have been linked in trade talks with the 49ers before and their big-name tight end, Jordan Cameron, will become a free agent in 2015.
Johnny Manziel will also need all the downfield targets he can get his hands on as a developing sophomore quarterback at the pro level. Davis’ speed and abilities down the seam would surely fit the bill.
At any rate, this is all just speculation.
But if we’re making predictions on the 49ers’ offseason moves, and especially those of the biggest varietal, we’ll opt for the front office packaging Davis to another squad.
Kaepernick needs mentally tough assets and reliable pass-catchers in his receiving arsenal if he is to ever realize his own potential.
And Davis just isn’t that.
All team and player statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, ESPN and NFL.com unless otherwise noted. All contract information courtesy of Spotrac. Advanced metrics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Joe Levitt is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, waxing academic, colloquial and statistical eloquence on the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him on Twitter @jlevitt16
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