Which Team Will Be a Better Free-Agent Destination in 2015: Lakers or Knicks?
As proud NBA franchises in proud American markets, the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks expect to win. They expect to sit atop standings, and they expect to court and land the best talent available on the market.
Neither is happening.
The two franchises have combined for a 77–144 record since the start of the 2013-14 season, and there's little reason to believe either roster can change course as currently constructed. The only hope for each team lies in 2015 free agency.
We asked NBA Lead Writer/Lakers sympathizer Josh Martin and league analyst/Knicks masochist Dan Favale about each roster's prospects for the summer of 2015.
Bleacher Report: Dan, the lure of the New York media market and the mass notoriety that comes with donning a Knicks uniform was once impossible to ignore. Do Knicks fans still believe in their heart of hearts that New York will always be on the short list of superstar NBA free agents? Or has that confidence shaken in recent years?
Dan Favale: Confidence has indeed been shaken to its core in recent years. Yet, even amid growing trepidation, the team has been able to successfully sell the idea of free-agent coups. In 2010, it was all about the cap space and market mystique.
Now, even though the current team resembles a poorly built, reflexive model of that previous vision, the prevailing train of thought is the same: The Knicks will be on the short list for any and all first-rate free agents so long as they have the cap space and market to back their name.
Past failures have garnered skepticism, but there's always a caveat. Phil Jackson is now that caveat. It doesn't matter that free-agency ventures have failed before. It doesn't even matter that the Knicks are pacing themselves toward a franchise-worst finish now. Jackson will turn cap space and market appeal into stars because of what he accomplished as a head coach. Re-signing Carmelo Anthony, after he had so many opportunities to seek out greener pastures, is supposed to reinforce this notion.
This upcoming summer will make or break belief, though. If Jackson and Anthony are unable to successfully woo Marc Gasol, Goran Dragic or whomever else they'll chase, faith will start to waiver. And if those same players choose markets like Memphis (Gasol), Phoenix (Dragic) or Atlanta (Paul Millsap) over New York, the Knicks' demise will be irrefutable. Right now, though, fan morale is somewhere in the middle—ebbing, but not quite gone.
B/R: Josh, rumors circulated over the offseason that painted Kobe Bryant as a deterrent to L.A.'s big-name free-agent recruiting, with ESPN The Magazine's Henry Abbott citing both on-court and off-court factors. Many voices—including Kevin Durant—have come out in support of Kobe and his viability as a co-star. How would you rate Kobe's effectiveness as a recruiting tool at this point in his career?
Josh Martin: Leaving aside the frivolity of those rumors and the extent to which those named (i.e., Carmelo Anthony, Paul George) have shot them down since, Kobe Bryant can certainly be an effective recruiter if he so chooses. So many of today's NBA players grew up watching, emulating and idolizing the Black Mamba. You don't think that nostalgic connection would resonate with the generation of stars who have followed in his footsteps?
Remember, according to USA Today's Sam Amick, the Lakers were in the running for 'Melo this past summer—despite coming off a 27-55 season—alongside the New York Knicks, who were able to offer Anthony more money and a starring role in his hometown, and the Chicago Bulls, who were (and still are) on the cusp of title contention. The team's history of winning, inimitable brand and unbeatable locale had plenty to do with that, but so, too, did Anthony's connection with and affinity for Bryant, one of his closest NBA confidants. Don't think 'Melo is the only star with whom Kobe has a strong rapport, either.
His desire and knowledge of how to win would find plenty of appeal among free agents, as well. Bryant's five rings unequivocally attest to his acumen in that regard, but it's what he's done this season that should and will intrigue his potential partners-in-crime.
Sure, the shooting numbers and the win-loss record aren't pretty, but if Bryant is out there looking so much like his old self—and killing himself behind the scenes to do so, after two major injuries and on a team without any immediate hope for even a morsel of playoff success—just imagine what he'd put himself through to help a team with legitimate postseason aspirations.
B/R: Dan, did re-signing Carmelo Anthony help or hurt Phil Jackson's chances of landing the next free-agent superstar?
DF: Retaining Anthony definitely helped Jackson's chances of landing another superstar. That he's over 30 and still known as a self-serving ball-stopper certainly doesn't make Anthony the ideal selling point, but he's a superstar who is well-liked by most of his superstar peers. He's also made an effort to exist within the Knicks' half-baked triangle, indicating he's amenable to playing off the ball more.
Keeping Anthony was, in a way, the Knicks' first test. Landing that initial superstar is difficult. Not one of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh or even Joe Johnson wanted to join their star-starved roster in 2010, so they were forced to "settle" for a more willing Amar'e Stoudemire. While Stoudemire's tenure in New York has been muddled by injuries and expectations gone astray, Anthony has admitted on more than one occasion that Stoudemire is one of the main reasons why he came to New York.
Anthony should have a similar impact on Gasol, Dragic and eventually Durant.
That slightly discounted contract he signed helps as well. If the salary cap erupts and hits $80- or $90-plus million for 2016-17, his near-max contract wouldn't function like a near-max contract anymore. It will be worth substantially less in proportion to the league's financial ceiling, allowing the Knicks to chase yet another star even if they land one this summer. And the opportunity to play with two other pre-eminent talents—one of them being Anthony—will resonate with whatever stars the Knicks inevitably court.
B/R: Three-pronged question: Who is the Knicks' dream 2015 free-agent target, most realistic free-agent fit and the fool's gold on the market?
DF: There's no doubt the Knicks' ideal free-agent fit is Marc Gasol. Assuming they want to move forward playing some version of the triangle, they need a savvy big man who can score and pass out of the post. Neither Amar'e Stoudemire nor Samuel Dalembert fits that bill now. Gasol, a former Defensive Player of the Year, is also someone who can help them reinvent a turnstile defense.
Goran Dragic, though, is easily the most realistic free-agent fit. The Suns already have too many point guards, so if he reaches the open market, look for him to sign with a team that can promise a bigger role.
The Knicks could be that team. Dragic is essentially a younger, sprier, healthier version of Jose Calderon. That he doesn't need the ball in his hands all the time makes him a solid fit for an offense predicated on constant ball movement.
Greg Monroe, meanwhile, is one of those bigger names both the Knicks and Lakers should sidestep. Though he's been mentioned as a target for both, by Sporting News' Sean Deveney and USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt, it's tough to envision him moving the needle enough for either team. He's a porous defender, a sub-optimal passer and his per-game stat lines appear to have already peaked five years into his career. Part of that is on the Pistons' yearslong dumpster fire, but a more transcendent talent would have most certainly led them to more than 30 victories since 2010.
B/R: Same question to you, Josh: Who is the Lakers' dream 2015 free-agent target, most realistic free-agent fit and the fool's gold free-agent name?
JM: Does LeBron James count as a free-agent target? He can opt out of his two-year deal this summer and just might, though it's tough to imagine him ditching his home-state team again, especially after just one year back.
Kevin Love would be a great get, as well, but even his affinity for L.A. may be no match for the allure of continuing to win alongside LeBron James in Cleveland. The Lakers would also do well to nab any one of Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard, but all three are coming from much more stable situations, and Leonard figures to stay in San Antonio as a restricted free agent.
Realistically, the Lakers would do well to nab Goran Dragic, assuming he opts out of his current contract with the Phoenix Suns. Jeremy Lin has underperformed considerably in L.A., leaving just enough room for Ronnie Price to steal his starting spot.
As gifted a player as Kobe Bryant is, he doesn't have enough juice left in the tank to run the offense and be the go-to scorer from quarter to quarter, much less night to night. That's where Dragic, a productive player at either backcourt spot, comes in. He's tremendously tricky with the ball and is more than capable of being a threat off it (36.3 percent from three for his career). Dragic would reinvigorate the Staples Center with his signature flair while giving Byron Scott yet another talented player at the point as his star pupil.
If the Lakers don't want to get burned in free agency, they'd do well to avoid Greg Monroe and DeAndre Jordan. The former is a skilled low-post scorer who's not particularly athletic and doesn't offer much resistance defensively—not unlike, say, Carlos Boozer, who already wears purple and gold.
The latter, meanwhile, has the opposite problem: He can jump out of the gym and be a difference-maker defensively (when he plays with some modicum of discipline, that is), but his offensive game is limited to alley-oops, putback dunks and clanked free throws. Neither is the sort of star who would elevate the Lakers back into playoff contention.
B/R: Let's use your common target as a means to an end. Assuming the Lakers and Knicks have the good sense to pursue the services of Marc Gasol, what's the three-bullet point pitch? Josh, what's the Lakers' case?
JM: 1. Hey Marc, remember when your brother Pau played here with Kobe? He did pretty darn well: three All-Star appearances, three trips to the Finals, two titles. You could follow in his footsteps...and continue a long and rich tradition of great big men leading the Lakers to Title Town, from George Mikan and Wilt Chamberlain to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Shaquille O'Neal and your big bro!
2. We take care of our stars. I mean, did you see how much money we gave Kobe? That could be you, assuming you bring us more rings to kiss.
3. Listen: I'm sure Memphis is great, but L.A. is pretty awesome—arguably more awesome than Memphis. More importantly, the vast majority of your peers probably think so. That may not seem like such a concern now, but what happens when [Kosta] Koufos bolts, Z-Bo [Zach Randolph] breaks down and Mike Conley hits free agency? Are the Grizzlies going to be able to lure impact players to help you?
Kobe will be done soon, but when he goes, we'll have you, two young studs (assuming the Lakers keep their '15 pick) and oodles of cap space with which to attract more stars to the NBA's marquee franchise in one of the most desirable locales in the country.
B/R: Dan, let's hear it.
DF: 1. *Deliberately steps on Josh's toes* Yo Marc, remember when your brother Pau played under Phil Jackson within the triangle? He fared pretty darn fantastic—provided you consider three All-Star appearances, three trips to the NBA Finals and two championships pretty darn fantastic. Why not join forces with the man behind Pau's two rings who actually has nine more to his name as a coach and is currently pulling strings in the Big Apple?
2. Have you ever played with a top-10 superstar before? Of course you haven't. Zach Randolph and Mike Conley are fabulous, but they're not superstars. Carmelo Anthony is a superstar and will instantly become the most talented teammate you've ever played beside.
And because we, the New York Knicks, don't face the same financial restraints as your Grizzlies, we won't hesitate to fill out the roster with more superstars. The luxury tax doesn't scare us. Kevin Durant is available next summer. Sign with us, and you, along with Anthony, will have the opportunity to recruit him. Then, with him in tow, we'll spend what's necessary—and legally permitted—to fill the roster out with viable supporting cast members.
3. Have you seen the East lately? Man, it's awful. But that means there's a superteam void to fill. With you, we can fill that void. Really, what's more likely: you and the Grizzlies overthrow the Spurs, Blazers, Clippers, Rockets, Warriors, Mavericks and, with time, Anthony Davis' Pelicans, or we scrape past the LeBron James-led Cavaliers? Think about it, Marc. The NBA Finals is a heartbeat away when conference competition isn't competition at all.
B/R: Be honest. Say LeBron James opts out of his contract at the end of this season and declares he's settled on two potential teams: the Lakers and the Knicks. What's the smartest move for LeBron to win the most possible titles?
DF: There isn't even a question here, in my opinion. Given the state of both teams, this is like asking which squad is the lesser of two evils. But at the same time, it's inherently easier to win a championship in the Eastern Conference. James himself is apodictic proof. He made four NBA Finals appearances in four years with the Heat, winning two championships.
The East hasn't gotten any better in the meantime, nor is it closer to getting better. Rajon Rondo has already been shipped West. According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, Deron Williams could be headed to Sacramento, and there are two playoff teams on pace to win less than 40 games. Although the balance of power could shift eventually, James has the chance to strike while the iron is hot, winning multiple titles alongside Anthony and at least one other star to be named later before another legitimate threat emerges.
Housing Anthony is big for the Knicks here, too. Other stars would inevitably follow James to Los Angeles, but he'll still have to play at least one season beside an ebbing Bryant. At minimum, that increases the degree of difficulty under which James must win a title. At worst, that precludes him from hoisting another Larry O'Brien Trophy through 2015-16. And, when put that way, it's easy to see which team offers a better opportunity for him to pad his ring count.
JM: If history is any guide, the Lakers would easily be the better choice between the two. In New York, LeBron would be leaning on two former champions (i.e., Phil Jackson and Derek Fisher) who are relatively inexperienced in their respective positions. In L.A., he could count on the front office of Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss, who have been building teams for years and have won championships doing it, and Byron Scott, who's been in two NBA Finals during his 14 years as a head coach.
Keep in mind, too, that Scott has done his best work with unselfish playmaking savants (see: Jason Kidd, Chris Paul).
That sort of organizational stability is key. The Buss family needed some time to sort things out after the passing of the late Dr. Jerry Buss but now appears to have its house in order. The Knicks, on the other hand, are relying on the Zen Master to fend off the meddling James Dolan.
What are the odds that Jimmy D. would be able to resist catering (if not kowtowing) to Bron-Bron and his entourage? How long would it take for LRMR to have its run of the place, just as World Wide Wes and CAA once did? Does anyone think the Lakers' higher-ups would be so susceptible to external interference?
Either way, James would be hard-pressed to win a title in year one with New York or L.A. With the Lakers, though, would come the prospect of having the cap room to add multiple max-level free agents once Kobe Bryant's contract comes off the books in 2016.
Which other ring-starved stars would scramble to play with the NBA's marquee player on its marquee team? Kevin Durant? Al Horford? Joakim Noah? Those guys will all be free agents come 2016, and they might all be able to wear purple and gold together if James takes his talents to the City of Angels.
