Portland Trail Blazers Should Embrace Small-Ball Lineup After Robin Lopez Injury
There's an obvious solution to the Portland Trail Blazers' temporary life without starting center Robin Lopez, but it may not be the best one.
Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski recently reported that according to league sources, the 26-year-old big man "is expected to miss four weeks with a fractured right hand" he suffered during the third quarter of Monday night's 108-95 win against the San Antonio Spurs.
His natural replacement is seven-foot center Chris Kaman, a 32-year-old journeyman averaging 10 points and 6.2 rebounds per contest.
But there may be a better idea, one that takes full advantage of Portland's offensive prowess and collection of floor-spacing shooters. In this scenario, pick-and-pop extraordinaire LaMarcus Aldridge would slide over to the 5 spot—a position he frequented prior to Lopez's arrival in 2013.
Third-year power forward Thomas Robinson would bring interior activity to the starting lineup, but he's only played sparingly in 10 games so far this season. And the idea behind going small (and moving Aldridge to center) is premised on stretching the defense by keeping shooters on the floor, particularly at the 4 spot.
So 6'9" forward Nic Batum should get the nod at power forward. The Trail Blazers would lose some rebounding battles, but their ability to push tempo and frustrate defenses is critical. They score 27.2 percent of their points via three-pointers, the fourth-highest mark in the league, according to TeamRankings.com.
There are certainly risks associated with sacrificing size, but it's unlikely Kaman or Robinson would duplicate Lopez's rim protection, defensive presence and all-around impact.
His 9.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per contest may seem relatively modest on face, but Lopez has quickly become one of the league's more indispensable role players in Portland.
As The Oregonian's Joe Freeman recently put it, "In many ways, he's the heart and soul of the Blazers' starting lineup, a selfless, rugged, lane-clogging big man who is the unsung hero to their free-wheeling offense and linchpin to their improved defense."
Portland's reserve big men may have the size, but they don't have the same intangibles, as Wes Matthews told reporters Monday night:
"It's going to be different. It's going to be an adjustment. Everybody's going to have to step up their defense and work that much harder. What [Lopez] provides, it's not something that you can really put into a stat sheet. Some games he will stuff that stat sheet up, but his talking, his activity, his unselfishness on offense and defense, his energy—we'll have our work cut out for us. But, unfortunately, that's part of the game and we have guys that are going to be willing and are going to need to step up.
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The injury will almost certainly create additional opportunities for Kaman, Robinson, reserve Joel Freeland and third-year center Meyers Leonard. And while they won't replace Lopez, they'll maintain some degree of respectability up front.
That doesn't mean they should be in the starting lineup, though.
Lopez has been essential to allowing opponents just 99.5 points per 100 possessions, the sixth-best mark league-wide, according to Hollinger Team Stats. As NBCSports.com's Kurt Helin noted on Tuesday, "Portland is 5.4 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the court this season."
Without him, head coach Terry Stotts' best option is turning to an offense that ranks eighth in efficiency with 106 points per 100 possessions, per Hollinger Team Stats.
A step back on the defensive end is inevitable. The best hope of keeping pace in this conference involves lots of scoring.
Over the course of the next month, Portland will face the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers. If Lopez misses slightly more than a month, he could also miss a back-to-back, including another meeting with San Antonio and a game against the Memphis Grizzlies.
As if the Western Conference matchups aren't enough, Lopez will also miss contests against the Toronto Raptors and much-improved Atlanta Hawks.
With Batum and Aldridge manning the 4 and 5 spots, respectively, the Trail Blazers could give some of these teams defensive fits and get out to a few early leads in the process. Opposing bigs would struggle mightily to simultaneously protect the basket and disrupt perimeter looks.
Of course, Portland still needs someone from the second unit to fill the starting lineup's remaining void, and that's a decision that should probably be dictated by matchups.
On some occasions, Stotts could elect to go extra small by playing backup point guard Steve Blake alongside starter Damian Lillard. Though a defensive liability against some swingmen, Blake brings a solid repertoire of shooting and playmaking to the table.
Swingman Allen Crabbe has already started four games this season, and the 22-year-old would give Portland more of a three-and-D look on the wing. Small forward Dorell Wright has largely fallen out of the rotation this season, but he might also figure somewhat prominently into a small-ball attack thanks to his length and shooting ability. So too could 23-year-old Will Barton.
With combo-guard C.J. McCollum about to return from a fractured finger, smaller lineups may well be essential to keeping this club's best players on the floor. If Batum and Aldridge are the de facto bigs, there's no shortage of minutes to distribute among perimeter guys.
"It's going to be a process," Stotts told Freeman this week concerning McCollum's imminent return. "Allen is playing very well. CJ was playing very well before he got hurt. I can't tell you right now how it's going to work itself out. But it'll work itself out."
Despite small-ball's virtues, Stotts may be more inclined to adopt more conventional lineups featuring Kaman and other traditional big men.
The Trail Blazers are a good rebounding team (with an eighth-best 51 percent rebounding rate, per TeamRankings.com) thanks in large part to a towering front line. And even if Kaman isn't a perfect defensive replica of Lopez, he's still posting 1.1 blocks per contest in just 19 minutes of action.
Moreover, there's a danger Aldridge would encounter more foul trouble when serving as his team's principal source of rim protection. There was, after all, a strong rationale for acquiring a big man like Lopez in the first place.
That said, some risk-taking may be in order for Stotts and Co.
There are always costs associated with the deployment of small lineups, but there are also some compelling benefits. Portland's version wouldn't be all that different from the Miami Heat's decision to play Chris Bosh at center.
Like Aldridge, Bosh has the skill set and instincts of a power forward with deep range. And that's precisely what makes him such a rare and dangerous commodity at center. Most big guys just aren't mobile enough to keep a hand in his face.
There will be situations in which a small lineup simply isn't feasible, times when there's too great a premium on interior defense or preventing second-chance opportunities. Even the best strategies should adapt to circumstances.
But in that same spirit, making the most of life without Lopez may require a little creativity—and an open mind toward a slightly shorter starting five.
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