Grading the San Francisco Giants' Offseason Post-Winter Meetings
It has been roughly six weeks since the 2014 baseball season ended with the San Francisco Giants winning their third World Series title in five years. The Giants and the city of San Francisco held a victory parade which was attended by hundreds of thousands of adoring and jubilant fans.
In addition, Madison Bumgarner was named the Sportsman of the Year by Sports Illustrated magazine.
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However, in these six weeks the Giants have not made any significant moves to bolster their roster and have already lost free-agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval to the Boston Red Sox. Michael Morse, Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo and Ryan Vogelsong are now free agents and weighing their options.
General manager Brian Sabean has yet to reel in any players of note via the free-agent market or by trade. Baseball's winter meetings have also concluded without the Giants making any big moves.
It will be tough for Sabean to make any major trades without giving up some of the Giants' more coveted younger players like Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Andrew Susac or Kyle Crick.
In addition to Sandoval, several of the top free agents the Giants were interested in have already been signed by other teams.
Starting pitchers Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Jason Hammel, Francisco Liriano and Ervin Santana have all agreed to terms elsewhere. Outfielders Nelson Cruz, Yasmany Tomas, Nick Markakis, Torii Hunter, Melky Cabrera and Michael Cuddyer are also off the market.
Right-handed relief pitchers Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek, either of whom would have been a good fit for the San Francisco bullpen, have both signed with the Astros.
This leaves the Giants with the same four holes they had when the market opened up: The Giants are still in need of a third baseman, left fielder, starting pitcher and right-handed reliever.
As MLBTrade Rumors.com reports, the Giants are in hot pursuit of former Royals starting pitcher James Shieds and are also in the hunt for Chase Headley and Jed Lowrie. If the Giants end up with Lowrie, who is more of a middle infielder, Joe Panik could possibly slide over to third base.
Shields had a strong year with the Royals, throwing 227 innings, allowing 224 hits and 44 walks while striking out 180. His ERA was 3.21 with a WHIP of 1.181. The only concern with Shields is his age: He will be 33 in a couple weeks.
Shields has been extremely reliable, having thrown at least 31 starts and 200 innings over the past eight seasons. A three-year deal would be ideal for the Giants, but Shields is likely to want four or five. Sabean would most likely go four years, but anything more is a big gamble for a pitcher who has worked this much.
Do not look for the Giants to make a serious push for Max Scherzer. Although an outstanding pitcher, his asking price could be more than Jon Lester's. Scherzer's agent is Scott Boras, who is notorious for delaying negotiations and trying to squeeze the last possible nickel out of a team.
Sabean does not like to deal with Boras, so look for the Giants to make a move for a starting pitcher long before Scherzer signs. Hayden Kane of Fansided.com reported that Scherzer wants a deal similar to that of Clayton Kershaw, which was for seven years and over $200 million. The Giants will not and should not be interested.
Jayson Stark of ESPN recently tweeted that the Giants are also interested in making a deal with the Phillies for Cole Hamels. He is another top-quality pitcher, but again, the price will be extremely high.
If the Giants strike out on these options, look for Sabean to quickly move to sign Jake Peavy. He became a fan favorite in San Francisco with his performances and intensity.
Peavy pitched very well for the Giants after a dismal first half of the season in Boston. As a Giant, Peavy started 12 games, worked 78.2 innings and compiled an ERA of 2.17 and WHIP of 1.042. He also had a big win against the Nationals in the NLDS.
In the infield, Headley is the best available third baseman on the free-agent market. However, he has been trending downward since having a big year in 2012.
ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that Headley has received a four-year, $65 million offer, but it was not from the Giants. Frankly, the Giants would be taking a huge risk by giving Headley a contract of that magnitude and length.
Like Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera could also be a fit at second base, with Panik again moving over to third.
Another possibility for third base is a deal with the Cubs involving Luis Valbuena. The Cubs have an overflow of outstanding young infield prospects, and Valbuena is a good candidate to be moved. Rob Huff of Bleed Cubbie Blue reported on some possible trade scenarios between Chicago and the Giants.
Valbuena is much more cost-effective than Headley or Sandoval, and his regular-season numbers are fairly comparable. In 478 at-bats, Valbuena hit .249, with an OBP of .341 and OPS of .776. He hit 16 home runs and drove in 51 RBI.
By comparison, Sandoval had 588 at-bats, over 100 more than Valbuena. He also hit 16 home runs with 73 RBI. Sandoval's OBP of .324 and OPS of .739 are actually below those of Valbuena. Where Sandoval shined was in the postseason, but the regular-season totals are quite similar.
The other major difference is that Valbuena made only $1.7 million in 2014. He is arbitration-eligible and under the Giants' control for two more seasons. He is likely to get a raise perhaps toward the $4-5 million range for 2015, but that pales in comparison to Sandoval's five-year, $95 million deal.
Valbuena's numbers were also better than Headley's this past year. Headley split time between the San Diego Padres and the New York Yankees. In 470 at-bats, Headley hit .243, with an OBP of .328 and OPS of .700. He hit 13 home runs with 49 RBI.
Although it will cost the Giants one or two decent prospects, they will be far better off with Valbuena than spending a large chunk on Headley.
In the bullpen, both Gregerson and Neshek, the two most attractive setup men available, have already signed. Look for the Giants to retain Romo with a two-year deal in the $12 million range.
In the outfield, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Giants are trying to forge a deal with the Atlanta Braves for Justin Upton. The price will be very steep, however, and Upton is set to become a free agent after the 2015 season.
Upton, 27, is in the prime of his career. In 2014, Upton had a big year, hitting .270 with an OBP of .342 and OPS of .833. He hit 29 home runs and had 102 RBI. He would be an ideal fit for the Giants in left field and batting in the third or fourth spot in the order.
A key to a deal for Upton is whether the Giants believe they can sign him to a long-term contract. Sabean will not want to give up the Giants' best young talent for a one-year mercenary.
If the Giants are able to ink Shields, which will not cost them any prospects, it will improve the odds of Valbuena's or Upton's arrival in San Francisco. The Giants' minor league system is relatively thin, and Sabean will be reluctant to trade away too many of his top prospects.
Other potential outfield options include Alex Rios, Nori Aoki or the return of Michael Morse.
The winter meetings have concluded and the only grade we can give Sabean and the Giants, is an "incomplete." This is a work in progress, and there is still a lot of time before the spring.
Player stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Salary data courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.
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