Exploring the Los Angeles Clippers' Regular-Season Ceiling
Coming off the best regular season in franchise history, the Los Angeles Clippers won a record 57 games, and expectations have been at an all-time high. Expecting to match, or exceed, that win total this season would be a lofty goal.
The talent on the roster is undeniable. Not many teams have a duo that rivals Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Add in DeAndre Jordan, who led the league in rebounding, field-goal percentage and finished third in the Defensive Player of the Year Award voting last season, and the top three is as lethal as any in the league.
Additionally, there are plenty of complementary players, considering J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford and Spencer Hawes each play a large role. Doc Rivers has assembled enough offensive talent to overwhelm opponents, and he has the shooting to space the floor for his star players.
Analyzing aspects such as team statistics and the remaining schedule should allow us to answer a few questions about the team’s potential. Are the 2014-15 Clippers as good as last season? What is the team’s regular-season ceiling this year?
The Statistics
Before analyzing the present and future, we need to take a look into the past and see what the Clippers’ strengths and weaknesses were last season.
The 2013-14 Clippers won 57 games, finished third in the Western Conference and won their division. They were particularly good at home (34-7), winning the second-most amount of home games in the league.
They were also solid on the road (23-18), tying for the fourth-most road wins, which would have been tops in the Eastern Conference.
Not only did the Clippers win 57 games, but they did so in impressive fashion. L.A. finished second to the San Antonio Spurs with a plus-seven point differential.
As of December 10, the Clippers are fifth in the West with a 15-5 record. Riding an eight-game winning streak, they are an impressive 8-3 at home, 7-2 on the road and are fourth in differential at plus-7.5.
According to NBA.com, the offense is a major reason why the team has had success. The Clippers rank first in points per shot, true-shooting percentage and effective field-goal percentage, second in assist-to-turnover ratio and third in offensive efficiency.
Defense, on the other hand, has been an Achilles' heel. L.A. ranks in the middle of the road or lower in most defensive categories. Most importantly, the team is 12th in defensive rating and 14th in points allowed per game.
Part of this has been due to poor defensive rotations. While the team allows the second-lowest amount of field-goal attempts inside five feet, it ranks 23rd in opponent field-goal percentage. The same can be said from mid-range, where the Clippers allow the highest opponent field-goal percentage in the league.
The two are related, mainly because when there is penetration, the second and third defensive rotations need to contest or eliminate open shots, but they are typically slow or late.
Rivers mentioned the poor rotations and missed assignments as things the team needs to correct, according to Kurt Helin of NBC’s ProBasketballTalk:
"I wasn’t real happy with our defense tonight, Clippers coach Doc Rivers said afterward. I thought we had a couple key stops down the stretch. It’s one of those games where you’ll take the win, it was neat for our guys, they were excited, but they knew. You could see it collectively right when I walked in (the locker room) on their faces: ‘Not my best,’ ‘Not my best,’ ‘We messed up,’ ‘I messed this coverage up.’ You could just feel it.
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One final problem the team must correct is how often it fouls. Opponents are shooting 26.4 free throws per game, fifth-most in the league.
The late defensive rotations and poor decision-making are currently hampering the team’s defensive capabilities and providing opponents too many opportunities to score from the free-throw line.
Schedule
With 62 games remaining, the schedule still has plenty of twists and turns ahead. The Clippers have 32 road games left, including the annual Grammys road trip, which is eight games this season.
Additionally, there are 15 remaining back-to-back games and 29 meetings against teams .500 or better. The schedule has been fairly average so far, ranking 14th in difficulty. However, it will grow more formidable, as the team has 38 games remaining against the Western Conference.
Currently sitting three games behind the Golden State Warriors, the Clippers are going to be in a fight all season long with their new rivals. While the Warriors have played the 20th-hardest schedule so far, they look like the best team in the league and have the record to match.
The Clippers are beating the teams they should early in the season, despite losses against the Sacramento Kings and the Chicago Bulls—without Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol. Still, L.A. will be tested as the season progresses and will need to earn victories over the conference’s elite.
Analysis
Currently rolling, the Clippers are projected to win 57 games again, according to John Hollinger’s NBA Playoff Odds. It seems doubtful the team wins as many games as last year without a defensive addition or two, plus some internal growth.
Rivers agrees, according to Fox Sports West's Jovan Buha.
"You have to win games, period, while you're getting better," Rivers said. "But if we are the best we're going to be right now, then game 82 we're in trouble."
Rivers is correct. While the offense has performed well early in the season, the defense is an issue. Poor rotations, late closeouts on shooters and a lack of solid perimeter defense have made the Clippers vulnerable to defeat.
This is especially true against offenses that can keep the floor spread with shooters, forcing three or four rotations defensively. The Clippers need to be alert on defense, executing their rotations and help defense consistently.
To their credit, the players are giving a better effort on defense after a 5-4 start, ranking ninth in defensive rating since. However, when a team is as talented offensively as the Clippers are, sometimes it becomes commonplace to outscore opponents rather than stopping them.
With that said, the L.A. ceiling seems to be in the 52- to 58-win range. The offense is far too dynamic to not approach the 50-win mark this season. However, the defensive growth will determine if the Clippers approach 57 wins again.
The conference is strong, perhaps as strong as it has been in the last five years. The talent level in the West is breathtaking. In fact, each of the top five teams in the West would be the top seed in the East. Meanwhile, the sixth-place San Antonio Spurs are the defending champions.
The conference is akin to navigating through a minefield, and while the Clippers’ regular-season ceiling might be a tad below last year's, the overall ceiling is championship-caliber.
All statistics courtesy of NBA.com/Stats as of December 9.
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