Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: Complete Week 15 Preview for Houston
Welcome to Indianapolis, where the nightmares of the Houston Texans' players, coaches and fans have lived for the last 12 years.
The Texans have won road games at other tough places like Lambeau Field and Soldier Field, but whether it was the RCA Dome or the house that Peyton Manning built—Lucas Oil Stadium—they've never been able to put it all together at Indianapolis and have an 0-12 record hanging around their neck.
Eventually the Texans will break through and win a game at Indianapolis; this would be a hell of a time for them to finally do so as few games there between the Texans and Colts have had more significance.
Everyone is probably aware by now that the Texans need to win out to make the postseason while the Colts need only one more win or a Texans loss to clinch the division title for a second straight season.
The Colts finish up the season in Week 17 with the Titans, so let's forget about winning the division; its Wild Card or bust for the Texans.
Even if the Texans won out and the Colts went on to lose at Dallas next week to make both teams 10-6, the Colts would win the tiebreaker on record against common opponents with a 9-3 record in those games compared to 7-5 for the Texans.
Record against common opponents is the third tiebreaker for a two-team tie in a division race after head-to-head, which the Texans and Colts would split in this scenario and record against the division, which would be 5-1 for both teams in this scenario.
Their chances of winning the division are basically zero, but don't lose hope just yet, because they're very much alive in the Wild Card chase!
The tiebreaker for ties involving three or more teams in the Wild Card chase that you'll need to pay attention to is record against the conference. That will work in the Texans' favor as they'll have a 9-3 record against AFC teams if they win out.
The Texans are already at the top of the teams who have 7-6 records based off that tiebreaker and would likely make the playoffs on the strength of it if they win out.
Winning out would keep them ahead of all the current 7-6 teams and also leapfrog the Baltimore Ravens to move into seventh place on the strength of their record against the AFC.
This is where the Texans will require some help, because if the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Diego Chargers both win out then the Texans will be eliminated; both teams would be 11-5 if they won out.
However, the Chargers' remaining schedule is very tough with games against the Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs—the last two are on the road—so chances are they'll lose at least one.
If they do and the Texans win out, Houston will be the sixth seed in the playoffs based on the record against the conference tiebreaker that I mentioned earlier, because the Chargers, Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, Bills and Browns all already have at least four losses in the conference.
It won't be easy this week against Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton and the rest of the Colts, but hopefully the playoff carrot dangling right in front of their face will be enough to motivate them to victory.
Houston Texans Week 14 Recap
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Last week almost felt like the Texans played two different games with each half having a very different feel. Houston trailed 7-0 after the first quarter and 13-10 at halftime, but they outscored the Jacksonville Jaguars 17-0 in the second half to win the game.
"Biggest take away from the #Texans is that OB is making sure this team knows how to finish games. Something they lacked previous years.
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 8, 2014"
The Texans opened the game playing very sluggishly and almost like they didn't want to be there, but they eventually turned it around to win easily. I'm sure I wasn't the only fan watching who started to have flashbacks during the first quarter of all the other majorly disappointing losses in franchise history.
They won the game in the second half on the strength of great play from their defense, which shut down whatever high school scheme the Jaguars were running that day.
"#Texans held the Jaguars to TWO yards of rushing and 73 total yards of offense in the second half.
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 7, 2014"
The usual suspects were, of course, at it again, which starts with J.J. Watt. Some Jaguars writers comically tried to downplay his impact, but even ignoring the stat sheet—which he stuffed—he forced them to either roll away from him or throw short passes on a quick drop-back the entire game; that's an impact!
"Will post the article tomorrow, Jags had zero 5 step drops. 14 1-step drops out of gun. 20 3-step drops out of gun.
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 9, 2014"
Of course the offensive line he was going against wasn't the Cowboys' line of the 1990s, and it wasn't Watt's best game of the season, but he whipped their line nearly every play possible. I'll say it again though; by forcing the Jaguars to roll out and throw quick, Watt had an impact even if he hadn't had a sack.
"Bortles feeling pressure from three man rush. Watt not close, Bortles panics. #Texans https://t.co/3YiNegQ8EW
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 10, 2014"
For the game Watt finished with three sacks, four tackles for loss, one pass defensed and five hits on the quarterback; yeah Jaguars writer, he made no impact.
"Watt in domination mode. Young has no chance. #Texans https://t.co/OjvGEQwCNJ
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 10, 2014"
Brooks Reed also had one of his best games of the season while making life difficult for former first-round pick Luke Joeckel.
"Reed vs. Joeckel part three. Third straight play. Reed spin move forces the bad pass. #Texans https://t.co/p5pgoLNKrz
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 10, 2014"
Safety D.J. Swearinger made a play with his second interception of the season; the secondary nearly had a couple more but dropped a couple. The Texans have excelled at forcing turnovers this season and now rank first in the league with 29 takeaways for the year.
On the offensive side, it was all Arian Foster as the passing game produced next to nothing. Foster finished the game with 127 yards rushing, 21 yards receiving and one touchdown, which came on a great effort and great athletic play from the veteran.
"Bryant causes the play to breakdown. Cyprien loses contain, Foster bounces outside for the TD. All Foster. ... https://t.co/lbNsyOqtn8
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 10, 2014"
As I just mentioned, the passing game contributed next to nothing, but luckily the Texans didn't need anything from that part of the game with how much the defense and running game dominated.
Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 13-out-of-19 pass attempts for 135 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions and an 88.7 QB rating; his lowest total for completions and yards of the year and only the second time he hasn't thrown a touchdown in a game.
At the risk of saying something obvious, the Texans will need more from Fitzpatrick this week to come away with a victory at Indianapolis.
News and Notes
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Jadeveon Clowney Has Another Surgery
"In addition to a lateral meniscus tear Clowney had articular cartilage damage. #Texans knew all along microfracture surgery was possible.
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) December 10, 2014"
Very disappointing end to an already disappointing rookie season.
There will be a lot of time to discuss and debate on who was to blame here or if anything could have been differently, but hopefully because Clowney is still very young—21 years old—he'll be able to bounce back quicker and better than most athletes who have this surgery.
It seems like this surgery comes from the knee injury he suffered in their opening game of the season back in September, so nothing could have been done to detect this problem at the time they drafted him.
I don't know if the awful field at NRG Stadium caused it—though some players do—but that playing surface has to be fixed before next season. Take Clowney out of the conversation, do you really want to risk the health of your 100-million dollar player J.J. Watt on a surface many people have called dangerous?
Fix it and fix it now.
J.J. Watt on South Park
""Now I've heard what they do to people," Watt says of South Park. Still calls it an honor and says a lot of his friends are excited. #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) December 10, 2014"
Turns out Watt didn't have an actual role on the long-running animation show, but it's still nice to see that casual fans around the nation have taken notice of his great play and star power.
As a fan of the show, when I first heard that Watt was going to be on the show I assumed they were either going to roast him for being too wholesome or feature him as some dumb destroyer who runs around and messes stuff up.
Turned out all you saw of Watt was a quick animated picture of him hugging a reindeer and an announcer saying his name; still a cool thing, though.
Injury Report
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| Garrett Graham | Ankle | Questionable |
| Andre Johnson | Concussion | Questionable |
| Whitney Mercilus | Back | Questionable |
| Tim Jamison | Knee | Questionable |
| Brian Cushing | Back | Probable |
| Xavier Su'a-Filo | Back | Questionable |
| Johnathan Joseph | Knee/Achilles | Questionable |
| Arian Foster | Groin | Questionable |
| Jeff Tarpinian | Knee | Probable |
| Kareem Jackson | Knee | Probable |
| Danieal Manning | Hamstring | Probable |
| Akeem Dent | Neck | Probable |
Source: Pro Football Focus
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Can Anyone Slow Down T.Y. Hilton?
T.Y. Hilton may be the biggest "Texans killer" in the entire NFL right now. The young receiver has averaged six receptions for 122 yards receiving with six touchdowns over his five career games against Houston.
Hilton's second-highest touchdown total against any other team is just two, while his yards per game average is easily the highest he has against any team he's played more than once.
In their first game this season, Hilton had nine receptions on nine targets for a career-high 223 yards and one touchdown.
His catches weren't just on dinks and dunks either, Hilton beat them on completions for 33 and 49 yards during the game. Hilton's explosion in that game is part of why the Texans have allowed the fifth most pass completions of 40 yards or more this season.
Can they stop Hilton? It's hard to feel confident in their ability to slow him down, but they have to give whichever corner is covering him some help by leaving a safety over the top in most passing situations.
The Texans' defense ranks fifth in most interceptions and first in most turnovers forced, so if you can keep everything in front and force the Colts to go on 10-plus play drives to score, the Texans' opportunistic defense will have a chance to take advantage of a mistake by the Colts.
I don't often like the idea of playing off-coverage in the secondary or using a "bend but don't break philosophy" on defense, but that strategy will give the Texans their best chance to slow down the Colts' passing offense and win this game.
Can't stop them from scoring if Hilton just runs right by single coverage on his way to the end zone.
Texans' Linebackers In Coverage on Colts' Tight Ends
With all the attention that will be paid to Hilton and Reggie Wayne, the Texans' linebackers will probably be put into some difficult situations in coverage on the two talented tight ends from the Colts. Anyone who follows the Texans closely knows that man coverage isn't something their linebackers do well.
Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener are averaging nearly 90 yards receiving combined per game and rank first and second in receiving touchdowns for the Colts this season; Allen is tied for first with Hilton. Allen and Fleener rank fifth and sixth respectively among all NFL tight ends in touchdown receptions this season.
Might be a good idea for the Texans to run some hybrid "Cover two-man under" looks with the corners in man coverage on the receivers, but the safeties and linebackers in zone to not only protect against the deep ball to Hilton, but also help out the linebackers.
With some or most linebackers in zone you won't expose them as much to having to run with the tight ends down the field, plus they'll be able to keep their eyes on Luck in case he decides to break the pocket and run.
There's no foolproof way to defend an explosive offense led by a talented quarterback like the Colts have, but playing your safeties in a deep-zone with man coverage by the corners, a couple linebackers in zone and another linebacker spying the quarterback should give them their best chance.
Blitzing too often will leave either their corners or linebackers on an island in man coverage, which will lead to disastrous results against a smart and talented quarterback like Luck.
X-Factor of the Week: The running game
Although this part of the game will, of course, fall heavily onto the shoulders of Arian Foster, I couldn't pick just one player because they'll need strong performances from their backup backs as well; especially since Foster is questionable.
Much in the same way that the level of play at quarterback hasn't dropped off much from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck, the best strategy to defeat them hasn't changed much either. It sounds simple, but they'll need to run the ball, control the clock and keep the ball out of Luck's hands.
When the Texans beat Manning's Colts in 2010, they won the time-of-possession battle and rushed for 257 yards.
When the Texans beat Manning's Broncos in 2012, they won the time-of-possession battle and rushed for 152 yards.
When the Texans beat Luck's Colts in 2012, they won the time-of-possession battle by over six minutes and rushed for 178 yards.
I could go back further but only wanted to use games since Foster has been in the league.
I say all this not to elicit a "duh" response from you guys, but Foster, Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes all need to make an impact when they have the ball in their hands for the Texans to win this game.
If the Texans can be plus-five minutes or more in time of possession and rush for over 150 yards as a team, they can win this game. If they don't, hard to believe that they'll have a chance.
Hitting those marks won't guarantee victory—see their first game last year—but it gives them their best chance.
For the season, the Texans rank fourth in rushing yards per game but just 16th in time of possession compared to fourth by the Colts at 32 minutes, 35 seconds per game.
Prediction
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Outside of the fluky game in 2011 where several horrible penalties helped a team led by Dan Orlovsky defeat the Texans, there is a very good reason why the franchise has never won at Indianapolis; the Colts have always had the better quarterback.
The Texans have had some good teams go in there and play close, but when your opponent is led by Peyton Manning and now Andrew Luck, you're going to lose most of those road games.
Obviously with the Texans starting Ryan Fitzpatrick this Sunday they'll once again be at a huge disadvantage at that position.
The Colts aren't close to being an unbeatable juggernaut, so there are several weak areas on their roster like run defense and pass protection that the Texans might be able to exploit. However, it's hard to imagine the Texans scoring enough points to keep up with the high-powered Colts' offense.
Indianapolis ranks second in the league in points scored—31.3 per game—and each loss has come to a team who scored at least 30 points. In their four losses their opponents—Broncos, Eagles, Steelers and Patriots—scored an average of 38.5 points; is the Texans' offense capable of matching that?
Saying you need to score points to beat a good offense is obvious, but you can't just outscore the Colts, you need to bury them to win. Luck has shown a tendency and knack for leading second-half comebacks during his career, so you have to stomp on their throat early to come away with a win.
In three of their losses, their opponent did just that to prevent any magic from Luck. The Broncos led by 17 at halftime, the Steelers led by 15 at halftime and the Patriots led by 15 at the end of the third quarter; Luck will kill you if his team is within striking range.
Don't forget the lesson learned last year when the Kansas City Chiefs led the Colts 31-10 at halftime of their first-round playoff game only to lose by a final of 45-44. In less than three full seasons, Luck already has 12 game-winning drives on his resume—it's hard to keep his team down.
The Colts did it to another team last week when the Cleveland Browns led their game at the end of the first, second and third quarters only to watch Luck lead a late drive for the go-ahead score with 36 seconds left in the fourth quarter. He was terrible during most of the game but turned it on when it mattered most.
The Colts are at home, have the better quarterback, have the more explosive offense and have shown more ability to make clutch plays late in games than the Texans; there is no reason to pick against them this week.
Prediction: Colts 30, Texans 24
Follow me on Twitter for more opinion on the Texans and live tweets during games: @sackedbybmac
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