Detroit Pistons' Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for December
If the Detroit Pistons have any chance to salvage the 2014-15 season, it will take a major bounce-back performance in December.
After their 104-98 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, they dropped to nine games below .500. That is three games worse than they were at the same point in 2013-14—when they finished with just 29 wins—and puts them on pace for just 16.
The silver lining for Stan Van Gundy and company is that they have been within striking distance in the final minutes of nearly every game this year, even if closing has been a serious problem. Had even a couple of those contests gone Detroit's way, the outlook would look much brighter.
For the Pistons to move up the standings, they will have to knock off some quality squads. Eight of their 14 December opponents are from the Western Conference, and half of their matchups come against a team boasting a record of at least .500.
Improvements must be made quickly, or their chances of seeing the postseason may be gone even before the new year.
Week 1: 12/01-12/06
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The start of December offers Detroit the perfect opportunity to change the trajectory of its season.
Week 1 features games against the Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers. If this was 2010-11, the stretch would be brutal. Instead, these are three of the worst rosters in the league, combining for a 7-35 (.167) record.
Even with Nick Young back in the lineup and Kobe Bryant averaging more than 26 points per game, Detroit's frontcourt should overwhelm the likes of Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill. And if Van Gundy cannot lead his guys past the winless 76ers, then it is time to follow their cues and let the tanking commence.
The most important contest of the week is with the Celtics, who are not a playoff team but are coached well by Brad Stevens. They are young with a lot of athleticism and feistiness on the perimeter and will have the best player on the court when they play Detroit.
Rajon Rondo will be the key to the matchup. He has been great so far after returning from an ACL injury suffered in 2013, averaging 10.1 points, 10.7 assists and 7.5 rebounds.
Brandon Jennings will be tasked with containing him—a prospect that should make Pistons fans cringe. But if Jennings can play the former All-Star to a near draw offensively, Detroit has the size to exploit the Celtics down low.
Week 1 prediction:
12/02 vs Los Angeles Lakers: Win
12/03 at Boston Celtics: Win
12/06 vs Philadelphia 76ers Win
Weekly record: 3-0
Week 2: 12/07-12/13
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Getting three wins in the first week is especially important because of how much more difficult the schedule becomes the following seven days.
That stretch has four matchups with Western Conference foes. The Pistons face the Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers at home and then go on the road against the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings.
OKC only has four wins so far, but it should have All-Star Russell Westbrook back in time for this game. Portland is just one game off the pace for the league's best record. And Sacramento is a very winnable game—it is just three games above .500—but DeMarcus Cousins is giving every big man he faces trouble right now. The Pistons may actually be at a disadvantage down low in that one.
The most winnable game of the week may be against the Suns, whom the Pistons lost to by just two earlier in November. Phoenix lacks the size to match up well with Detroit's bigs. The Pistons showed they had the talent to beat the Suns once; they'll just have to finish the job this time coming off two days' rest.
There are winnable games in this bunch, but the Pistons may not be favored in a single one. They need to snag at least one victory, and splitting the four seems like the best-case scenario right now.
Week 2 prediction:
12/07 vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Loss
12/09 vs Portland Trail Blazers: Loss
12/12 at Phoenix Suns: Win
12/13 at Sacramento Kings: Loss
Weekly record: 1-3
Week 3: 12/14-12/20
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There is no reprieve from the tough games in the third week of December.
The Pistons follow the matchup in Sacramento with one against the Los Angeles Clippers on the road. Then they go back home to face off with the Dallas Mavericks, who have the third-best win differential in the NBA. The week is capped off by hosting the East-leading Toronto Raptors.
By the end of the third week, the Pistons could have realistically played a stretch where six of seven games were against future playoff teams. That's not exactly what they need with their current record.
None of the three matchups is a particularly appetizing one. Dallas is leading the league in scoring, averaging 17 points more per game than the Pistons. The Raptors offense is second in scoring. Both are among the hottest teams in the NBA and have the firepower on the wing to present issues for Detroit.
In what would have seemed crazy before the season, the most winnable game may actually come in Los Angeles. The Clippers have two All-Stars in Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, but the team has underachieved in the early going. LA is No. 7 in the West and is outscoring opponents by only three points per game.
The Clippers have not gotten much production on the wing, which bodes well for this Pistons squad that has struggled to contain perimeter players. The Matt Barnes and Josh Smith matchup is particularly tantalizing, as J-Smoove should be able to have his way in the post.
But saying that one of these three games is "most winnable" really isn't saying much. It will take a bit of luck to come out with even one win.
Week 3 prediction:
12/15 at Los Angeles Clippers: Loss
12/17 vs Dallas Mavericks: Loss
12/19 vs Toronto Raptors: Loss
Weekly record: 0-3
Week 4: 12/22-12/31
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Week 4 is being stretched to 10 days, but it provides four winnable games for Detroit.
Three come against teams that don't look like they will be playing in the postseason. The Brooklyn Nets are sitting at No. 8 in the East but are two games below .500 and have won just two of their last eight. They have also had some chemistry issues.
The Indiana Pacers still have one of the best defenses in the league, but scoring the ball has been like pulling teeth without Paul George and Lance Stephenson. And the Orlando Magic are a fun, young team, but they are still a year or two from being real playoff contenders.
The big matchup of the final week comes when the Pistons visit the new-look Cleveland Cavaliers for the first time. LeBron James and company are one of the most talented groups in the NBA, but they are just .500 right now and have a number of issues on the defensive end.
This is not a sure win for the Cavaliers' trio of All-Stars. Their interior defense is terrible—they have allowed opponents to shoot 64.4 percent from within five feet, only ranking ahead of the Charlotte Hornets, per NBA.com. And if there is one area where the Pistons can hurt a team, it is down low.
It is not inconceivable for Detroit to sweep the final week and roll some serious momentum into 2015. But nothing about the team's early play has inspired enough confidence to truly believe in that.
Week 4 prediction:
12/21 at Brooklyn Nets: Loss
12/26 vs Indiana Pacers: Win
12/28 at Cleveland Cavaliers: Loss
12/30 at Orlando Magic: Win
Weekly record: 2-2
December Recap
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Their December schedule is far from kind, and the Pistons just do not look like they know what they want to be as a team. They desperately need to rattle off a string of wins, but there doesn't appear to be the opportunity to do so here.
The predicted record includes a lot of losses to Western Conference playoff teams. Nothing the Pistons have done thus far has inspired confidence in them beating many of those squads. It also predicts them handling business against bottom-dwelling East teams, something that has been far from a guarantee so far.
Going two games below .500 in December is far from ideal, but it would keep the team afloat in the quest to earn a postseason berth. Perhaps Van Gundy can figure how to get the offense clicking by the new year in time for a bit of a reprieve in the schedule.
The Pistons need to start gaining ground in the standings as soon as possible, but treading water in December may be the best they can hope for.
Prediction: 6-8
All records and statistics accurate through Nov. 28, 2014 and are from NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
Jakub Rudnik covers the Detroit Pistons as a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
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