Despite Recent Skid, Colts Still Favorites to Win AFC South

Big losses beget panic. 

That's just how it is in the NFL, especially for contending teams. When a team gets blown out, it's a sign of something. It could be something temporary or it could be a bigger issue, but losing by 20-plus points generally isn't something to be totally ignored. 

For the Indianapolis Colts and their fans, some of that panic has begun to set in after being blown out twice in three weeks by AFC contenders.

First it was a 51-34 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. That one could be explained away somewhat. The Colts were on the road and saw their best cover cornerback leave the game with an injury after the first drive of the game. Running into a perfect storm in Pittsburgh, there were indications of chinks in the defense's armor, but nothing more. 

But after Sunday's 42-20 loss to the New England Patriots, things are on edge once again in Indianapolis. The Colts defense has been stripped of its armor completely now, exposed to the run game against New England, vertical passing offenses in Pittsburgh and Denver and a deadly screen game versus Philadelphia. 

The defensive issues in Indianapolis are real. A thin roster propped up by scheme can have success against lesser offenses, but any offense with a pulse can, and has, produce against the Colts. 

Indianapolis now sits at 6-4, just one game ahead of Houston in the AFC South and tied with four other teams for the sixth-best record in the AFC.

But that doesn't mean that the Colts' season is over, as the tone of some fans would make it seem. 

No offense to the aforementioned fan(s), it's a general depressed attitude after a bad loss.

Team	Wins	Losses	Pt. Diff.	DVOA (Pre- Wk 11)
IND	6	4	+57	13.0%
HOU	5	5	+25	-11.6%
TEN	2	8	-82	-17.1%
JAC	1	9	-124	-26.2%

For one, there is still the saving grace known as the AFC South. The South belongs to the Colts, and has for the last decade. While Houston has put together a decent season, they would likely have to beat the Colts in Indianapolis in order to take the division. And, lest anybody forget, Houston has never won in Indianapolis, even when the Colts were rocking Dan Orlovsky at quarterback in 2011. 

The division is still ruled by Indianapolis, not in small part because of the Colts' soft second-half schedule. 

"

Updated AFC South standings, after today's tumultuous ride: pic.twitter.com/OyjGWbggOg

— Shawping Bag (@ShawSP) November 17, 2014"

Not only does Indianapolis play Tennessee, Jacksonville (at home) and Houston (at home) once more before the season's end, but the Colts also will play the Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys. 

While road games at Dallas and Cleveland will be difficult, they are certainly winnable. Eleven wins is a very attainable goal, with nine or 10 wins likely winning the division. Ryan Mallett, Zach Mettenberger and Blake Bortles aren't scaring anybody.

If Indianapolis does win the division, then they get to the playoffs, and once the playoffs arrive, anything can happen. With Andrew Luck and the Colts offense, any game is winnable. If the defense gets on a hot streak, anything is possible. 

Remember, the 2006 Colts looked dead in the water after losing 44-17 to the Jaguars in Week 14 but won a Super Bowl just two months later. The 2012 Baltimore Ravens looked like a one-and-done playoff team after a 34-17 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 15 capped a three-game losing streak. They'd go on to beat the Broncos (on the road) in the playoffs en route to a Super Bowl win. 

The NFL is a fickle game. Four of the last five AFC champions have had to beat a team they lost to in the regular season. What holds true in the regular season does not always hold true in the playoffs. 

Will the Colts be favorites to make noise in the playoffs? Is this a team that should see a 2006-like turnaround as a likely scenario?

Absolutely not, not with a defense that's crumbled under pressure and a complete lack of running game weakened further by the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw, per NFL.com's Kevin Patra. And that is a slight indictment on the current coaching staff and front office, in all honesty. The next step for the Colts is to be an elite team in the AFC, a team that is a favorite to make a deep playoff run. 

But for now, the Colts are still the favorites to win the division, and therefore make the playoffs. Once they're there, well, who knows?