5 NFL QBs with the Most to Prove in the Remainder of the Season
With 10 rounds of fixtures down and seven still to go in the current NFL regular season, there are several issues—such as the quarterback position—that each team needs to address on its way to the playoffs. Or 8-8 mediocrity. Or worse.
Some NFL franchises need their quarterbacks to step up their game in order for the team to reach its desired targets for the season. The likes of Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick have failed to impress this season.
This ranked list compiles five NFL quarterbacks, as well as a few honourable mentions, who need to improve in the last seven weeks of the season. The list is based on three key pieces of criteria.
First, they will be judged on their statistics and whether they are statistically good enough over the course of the season.
Second, they will be assessed on how they are actually performing on the field: their mechanics, movement out of the pocket, decision-making, etc.
Finally, they will be judged on whether they are making the best use of their offense around them (if they have a bad offense, then that quarterback is unlikely to be No. 1 on the list).
Honourable Mentions
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Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota Vikings): The biggest reason why Bridgewater is not on this list is the fact that he is in his rookie year. Furthermore, his game against the Atlanta Falcons shows he has the potential to improve on his performances.
Mike Glennon/Josh McCown (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): It really does not matter who is under centre at Tampa, because neither one is going to improve his game any time soon. Their mechanics and decision-making just look dismal, and the fact that Lovie Smith has switched from McCown to Glennon and then back to McCown does not inspire confidence. They don’t qualify for this list purely because it's about QBs who can improve.
Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders): Like Bridgewater, it is hard to slate a rookie for being poor. Carr has also had to deal with an uninspiring offense, and therefore, it is nearly impossible to criticise his performance, even if he has made some incredibly bad throws during his rookie season.
Austin Davis (St. Louis Rams): Again, this ranked list is on QBs who can step up, not those who won’t. Davis is an average QB who has had a couple of great performances (Week 5 versus Philadelphia was superb) mixed in with games with sub-200 yards passing and a season full of turnovers.
Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins): Griffin was not that bad in the starts he has had so far this season, but it is clear that he is still not 100 percent there physically or mentally after a woeful second season in 2013. He is not on this list due to the fact that he has been injured for most of the season.
Nick Foles (Philadelphia Eagles): Foles is not on this list purely because he will be out until the latter part of the season or for the remainder of the year. Foles is crashing back to reality following a terrific second season with a remarkable 27 touchdowns and two interceptions in 10 starts in 2013. This season, he has put up 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in eight starts. Put it like this: Using this season's stats, Foles would have 26 TDs and 20 INTs in 16 starts, one less touchdown than last season in fewer games with 10 times the amount of interceptions. Dismal.
Geno Smith (New York Jets): Smith would be on the list because despite what his critics say, he has shown that he can perform well now and then. The problem is that he is so inconsistent that the Jets coaching staff has decided to opt for veteran Michael Vick as their starting QB.
5. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)
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Wilson is never going to be the greatest passer in the world in terms of passing yards. Seattle’s franchise quarterback managed to only throw for 3,118 yards in 2012 and 3,357 yards in 2013.
Moreover, ESPN has projected (at the time of writing) that Wilson will only throw for 3,273 yards this season. Therefore, Wilson, being a dual-threat QB, is unlikely to reach that elusive mark of 4,000 passing yards in a season.
But the concern for Wilson lies in the game-by-game statistics. Over the course of his first four games, Wilson managed to be an incredibly accurate passer, with his lowest completion percentage being 67.9 percent in Week 1. Undoubtedly, that’s impressive.
Yet the concern has risen over the last few games as he earned QB ratings lower than 80 in four of the last five games. He has not thrown a touchdown in back-to-back games (against the Oakland Raiders and the New York Giants) for the first time in his career. Sometimes, QBs have slumps, but in order for the Seahawks to put up a title defence, Wilson must replicate his September form.
ESPN.com’s Terry Blount said (in reference to their game with the Giants):
"He had only 172 yards passing Sunday, but 60 of those came on one improvised deep throw to Kearse off a scramble. He threw two interceptions for the first time in 19 games (counting the playoffs last season) and only the third time in his career.
It’s clear Wilson misses having starting tight end Zach Miller as a target, but Wilson has been off target on too many throws. For now, the Seahawks need to run some quick-hitting routes, short turn-ins, short crossing routes and bootleg throws on the run to get Wilson back into a rhythm.
But get away from the bubble screens to the wideouts. It had stopped working with Percy Harvin, and it definitely isn’t working now.
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Blount’s analysis is almost spot-on. The problem is Wilson has never looked that comfortable making those deep throws, and without an obvious deep threat, Wilson has no option other than to throw short routes or bubble screens. No Percy Harvin or Zach Miller has certainly led to a very unhappy Wilson.
Furthermore, it does not help that head coach Pete Carroll is focussing on the running game, which in turn won’t help Wilson’s passing game. The success of Seattle's run game, which put up a franchise record 350 rushing yards against the Giants last week, means that Wilson is never going to throw for that many yards or touchdowns.
Still, Wilson needs to be more accurate when passing the football, because there are going to be times when the running game does not work.
4. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
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Season upon season, Newton’s passing game has gotten worse in terms of passing yards, and his QB rating and completion percentage have been average and unworthy of a No. 1 pick. According to ESPN.com’s David Newton, Cam Newton has a QB rating of 61.12 over the past four games—the worst in the NFL.
Yahoo Sports' Eric Edholm claims that despite the poor offensive line, Newton holds on to the football for far too long in the pocket and constantly misses the pass rush. While Edholm has a point, Newton is typically far better at escaping the pocket and either throwing on the run or scrambling for at least a few yards.
Newton and Wilson are very similar in the fact that they are very effective dual-threat QBs. What dual-threat QBs need, and what the Panthers franchise quarterback is lacking, is a solid offensive line. If the Panthers had a good O-line, Newton would obviously be making some better decisions in or out of the pocket.
Furthermore, the Panthers do not have a great receiving corps. Obviously, Newton should do better with the weapons that he has, but it has to be taken into consideration that neither Greg Olsen nor Jerricho Cotchery is going to be the equivalent of Jimmy Graham or Calvin Johnson. And Kelvin Benjamin is a great rookie that Newton is putting to good use.
Overall, Newton has the talent to climb out of this hole and lead the Panthers to successive divisional championships. With that being said, he needs to be more accurate, and he needs to buy himself time, because the O-line are not going to provide him with the time he needs.
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3. Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)
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Statistically speaking, the San Francisco 49ers quarterback is on course to have his best year in terms of passing yards, with ESPN projecting that he will get 3,851 yards by the end of the season. Furthermore, whilst it appears that he is not the most accurate of throwers, his pass completion percentage is about the same as his marks during his first two years (as a starter).
Therefore, one will be asking why he is on this list. Quite simply, despite the improved statistics this season, there has been something lacking from his game on a game-by-game basis.
In his game with the St. Louis Rams two weeks ago, Kaepernick drove all the way down to the red zone in his last drive—only to fumble and lose the ball with two seconds to go. And in his last game, he had such a poor pass completion rate against an underperforming New Orleans Saints secondary.
Yahoo Sports analyst Greg Cosell wrote this week that Kaepernick made some incredibly nice plays against the Saints that eventually led to his overtime victory. Kaepernick is used to receiving that sort of praise and rightfully so—he can make big plays when required (like his last touchdown against the Seahawks in last season’s NFC Championship game). Yet it is frustrating to see that though he can read defences well and make some wonderful plays, there is a huge amount of inconsistency to his game.
Kaepernick also has a good receiving corps that one feels he is underutilising. Veteran Anquan Boldin knows how to get open, while Michael Crabtree is a very good deep threat in the spread formation. Meanwhile, he also has other options available to him in Vernon Davis and Steve Johnson. Davis was a key part of the team's passing offense in 2013—therefore, it is surprising to see him not get so many targets this year. If Kaepernick wants to progress and become that elite QB, then he should make full use of the weapons around him.
2. Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears)
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Good news, Chicago Bears fans. Cutler is not as inaccurate as you think he is!
According to NFL.com, Cutler has the highest completion rate in his nine-year career, and he also has the second-highest yards per game in his career so far. ESPN has even projected him to go over 4,000 yards passing—something that he has not achieved since his last season with the Denver Broncos in 2008.
Bad news, Bears fans. Cutler has thrown the second-most interceptions this season with 10 (tied with Drew Brees, Geno Smith and Nick Foles) and has already been sacked 23 times.
Some of those sacks come down to the fact that Chicago’s offensive line has been depleted quite considerably due to various injuries.
However, some of those sacks come down to Cutler’s indecision in the pocket. He has poor footwork when in the pocket, and he is incredibly slow to release the football. He does not need to have a lightning-quick release like Peyton Manning, but some speed into that side of the game would help massively.
"But if Cutler — with that arm strength and mobility — doesn’t give a rip about maximizing his tremendous physical talent, well, hand me the matches.
An arm is a terrible thing to waste.
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(Van Schouwen wrote about fans burning effigies of Cutler, hence "hand me the matches.")
He's right. Cutler’s physicality is a terrible thing to waste, and one would say that with his potential (a word that should never be associated with a ninth-year QB), he could reach the same level as Ben Roethlisberger with his ability to move out of the pocket.
With all this being said, one could ask if his two main wideouts are letting him down. Neither Brandon Marshall nor Alshon Jeffery is having a terrific year. In fact, there should be no way that Marshall is fourth in terms of receptions and receiving yards for the franchise. It is not like Cutler is failing to target him either, since Marshall does have six touchdowns.
Cutler may make some terrible passes, but sometimes his receivers need to step up. In fact, both of them need to step up, or else the Bears are going to be putting on more performances like they did against Green Bay last Sunday.
1. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)
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Andy Dalton is arguably the most frustrating quarterback in the NFL today.
After signing a six-year, $115 million contract with the Cincinnati Bengals, the man from Katy, Texas, has proven his critics right with a comedown year. As seen in the tweet below from @SNFonNBC, this is a massive disappointment considering that the statistical comparison with Peyton Manning was enough to inspire confidence.
"Dalton and Peyton Manning's numbers in the first 3 years of their careers are remarkably similar #SNF pic.twitter.com/1bqeM8B314
— SundayNight Football (@SNFonNBC) August 25, 2014"
According to ESPN, Dalton is on course to replicate similar statistics from his first two seasons with the Bengals with an underwhelming 3,484 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Actually, scrap the word "similar," because it is worse—considering this would be the first time in his career he may throw for more interceptions than touchdowns (if ESPN’s projections prove to be correct).
It’s a shame that it is nearly impossible for him to break his own franchise record of scoring 33 passing touchdowns like last year—or even come close. It is also a shame to see some regression through the course of the season.
His first two games against the Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons show what Dalton could be like if he was composed 100 percent of the time. He didn’t make sloppy decisions, yet he still played with more flair than the stereotypical game manager. His last game against the Cleveland Browns highlighted the worst of Dalton—dumb throws into the opposition or just throws that were overthrown or underthrown. Dalton did not look comfortable at all and looked bench-worthy.
It is not like Dalton does not have two very effective weapons, either. A.J. Green can be seen in the NFL’s top five receivers, while Mohamed Sanu has stepped up due to Green’s injury and become a dynamic playmaker for the Bengals. A good run game means that he really should not be turning over the ball so much. But he does so nonetheless.
In his defence, there is an interesting report by ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey showing that some quarterbacks have years that are not as good as the one they previously had due to the signing of a new contract. Yet again, that is a weak defence for a quarterback that definitely should be doing better.
Broderick Sutherland is a B/R Contributor. Follow on him twitter @BrodSutherland.
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