Why Boston Celtics Should Target Al Horford Trade This Season
Despite the return of Rajon Rondo at point guard, the addition of rookies Marcus Smart and James Young and steady growth from Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk, the Boston Celtics are still looking to add an All-Star or two.
They look better than the 25-win team from a year ago, but more talent is needed before the Celtics can refer to themselves as a relevant basketball team.
The easiest way to acquire such talent remains a trade, and as this regular season unfolds, several talented players (including Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert, Paul Millsap, Greg Monroe, etc.) may become available if the right package of goodies are dangled and their respective teams find the need to change direction.
Should all go according to plan, Atlanta Hawks lynchpin Al Horford will be one of those players. As Grantland’s Zach Lowe recently wrote, Atlanta quietly shopped the two-time All-Star last season. Why, you say? A new ownership group is set to take over, and the uncertainty has caused speculation that Atlanta may have no intention of paying Horford’s next contract:
"It happened in stealth mode last season, when the Hawks reached out to a select group and made it known that Horford could be had for the right price — including an unprotected 2014 first-round pick, per several league sources. Nothing materialized, and Horford is ready to return from another torn pectoral muscle.
A healthy Horford is a top-20 player on a below-market contract that runs through 2015-16 — long enough that some team could talk itself into gambling on him. He could net a hefty return for the Hawks, who have been happily skipping down the “pretty good with cap room” path under Danny Ferry.
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Atlanta could desire to rebuild sooner than later. The best way to start over, of course, is to exchange a franchise player for draft picks, cap space and talented young assets. Boston has such things, and their desire to acquire Horford stretches beyond the obvious.
Everyone in the league would love a versatile two-way big with soft touch around the rim and serious attitude on the glass, but the Celtics need another guaranteed commodity. Everything in Boston revolves around its franchise point guard, and questions loom: Is the organization better off stabilizing a legitimate rebuild around Rondo or cashing out and further diving into the dark depths of roster renovation?
Moving Rondo will be hard. He’s an unrestricted free agent this summer, so any possible trade partner won’t be willing to offer much value due to the fact that they wouldn’t even be guaranteed a full season of Rondo’s service.
The Celtics know this and aren't willing to settle. Assuming he's the same player post-ACL surgery, Rondo is one of the best point guards in the league, and trading him for anything but a blue-chip prospect and/or several first-round picks isn't worth the trouble.
Conversely, re-signing the 28-year-old Rondo to a four or five-year deal this summer doesn’t make much sense without legitimately skilled pieces around him.
He isn’t old or past his prime, but those days are approaching. The Celtics need another bankable player. By adding Horford, Boston would boast two top-25 talents, a smart, young head coach who has embraced speed, free-flowing offense and the three-pointer (at least in the preseason) and would still have cap space and draft picks to play with in an attempt to get even better.
Horford is owed $24 million over the next two seasons, making his contract one of the most attractive chips in the league. He’s also missed 132 games over the past three years, with the aforementioned torn pectoral muscle ending his 2013-14 campaign after just 29 games.
He’s 28 years old, has two All-Star games under his belt and, pending the exact haul Boston ships to Atlanta for Horford's services, appears to be a splendid complement beside the floor-stretching Olynyk and a perfect pick-and-roll partner for Rondo.
Landing him would make Boston an attractive destination for a third All-Star. Upcoming big-name free agents—like Marc Gasol, who would fit Boston like a glove—would be more likely to select Boston if the talent level became more respectable.
And even if the Celtics can’t land someone this summer, Horford’s reliable offensive production in Boston’s offense would turn Jeff Green into a third option (assuming he picks up his player option or is re-signed to a team-friendly deal), increasing his comfort level and more importantly his efficiency.
How Boston can pry Horford from Atlanta is the next logical question. Between now and 2018, they have several first-round picks to play with: including all of their own, unprotected picks from the Brooklyn Nets in 2016 and 2018, a top-10 protected pick from the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2016 and an unprotected pick from the Los Angeles Clippers in this year's draft.
Those are golden assets with escalating value. As the salary cap rises over the next few seasons, rookie-scale contracts will not rise with it. From there, Boston has several expiring contracts they'd be willing to part with, including Brandon Bass, Marcus Thornton and Jeff Green (who has a player option in 2015-16). A pick or two, one of those contracts and Jared Sullinger should be enough to get Atlanta's attention, at least.
Horford doesn’t make the Celtics a championship contender by himself, but he does make them better on both ends of the court, perhaps even a playoff team in the lowly Eastern Conference.
He would also help clear up Boston’s murky future quite a bit. Trade rumors surrounding Rondo would disappear, and just like that the Celtics would once again be a competitive basketball team, accelerating their path toward title contention.
It's an opportunity they must explore.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
Michael Pina covers the NBA for Bleacher Report, Sports on Earth, FOX Sports and elsewhere. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.
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