Memphis Grizzlies 2014-15 Season Preview: Roster Breakdown, Win-Loss Prediction

Time and again, the Memphis Grizzlies prove people wrong, whether inside or outside the organization. Now basketball observers wonder whether they can do that again.

As the Memphis front office readied to trade Rudy Gay in 2013, the team's new hierarchy doubted its ability to compete, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports told The Chris Mannix Show. 

However, the players refused to give up the grind, upsetting the Oklahoma City Thunder to reach the Western Conference Finals.

After Marc Gasol went down last season with a left knee sprain, the team floundered and talk of tanking ensued among those like ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh (subscription required) and SB Nation's Matt Hrdlicka. But the Grizzlies defense recovered its primacy upon his return and keyed their climb to seventh in the West.

Writing for Grantland, Lowe said that "internal team projections around the league peg Memphis as the most likely victim" of turnover in the Western Conference playoff race.

Entering the 2014-15 season, Memphis is older. The average age of the Grizzlies' 14 players under contract is 28.6 years old, 1.6 more than the squad that made the conference finals.

The core of Randolph, Gasol and Mike Conley is limited. Randolph is an aging double-double machine. Gasol is a powerful, yet pass-first center. Conley is a high-usage lead guard who won't score much more than his 17.2 points per game last season.

The Grind Era Grizzlies don't go away easily. General manager Chris Wallace signed Vince Carter and drafted Jordan Adams to fortify a sturdy supporting cast.

Biggest Question Mark

Can the Grizzlies score enough to upset the Western Conference order?

The Thunder dealt the Grizzlies a gut check in a seven-game first-round defeat, thrusting a blow with the scoring of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Durant and Westbrook combined for 60 or more points in double-digit wins in Games 6 and 7.

Memphis earned all three wins in overtime. In the second halves of Games 2 and 5, the Grizzlies survived Oklahoma City comebacks of nine and 16 points, respectively. While Gasol and company overcame 3-of-10 shooting in Game 5's extra period, the Spaniard couldn't carry his crew the following game as the team shot 37 percent from the field, and his 17 points paled next to the Thunder duo.

They depend on a couple developments to keep up with the conference's top contenders. Acquiring Carter improves upon Mike Miller's outside shooting from last season. 

The 37-year-old Carter, who rejuvenated his career in the past two years with the Dallas Mavericks, hit 39.4 percent from three-point range while taking 4.6 threes and scoring 11.9 points per game.

That's 1.8 more long-range attempts per game than Miller, who left the Grizzlies for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Not only will Carter demand more attention from opposing defenses, but he'll also be a greater threat than any complementary Grizzlies shooter from 2013-14. He averaged more than all Grizz players outside the core.

Courtney Lee, the Grizzlies' No. 4 scorer last season at 11 points per game, had 14 games with 16 or more points while wearing the three shades of blue, while no other supporting cast member had more than six. Carter had 21.

Additionally, Quincy Pondexter comes back after missing 67 games last year with a broken right foot. He shot 39.5 percent from downtown in 2012-13 and nailed 45.3 percent from long range in the 2013 playoffs.

Memphis must hope the small forward it signed to a four-year extension last October proves his worth from that distance. As the Memphis Flyer's Kevin Lipe pointed out, the 26-year-old hasn't attempted nearly enough threes in his career to show that.

If Pondexter returns with great perimeter aim, it would be as good as a cheap-quality signing.

Conley has a little more room for growth as a scorer. He should raise his usage rate after setting a career high at 24.6 percent last season as Gasol remains deferential and Randolph recedes a bit with age.

The 27-year-old raised his field-goal percentage one percent to 45 percent last year, but he still has soft spots on the floor. As his 2013-14 NBA.com shot chart shows, he has work to do in the paint, even after he boosted his clip at the rim by 4.7 percent from 2012-13.

The combined boost from these three backcourt players can close the gap between the Grizzlies, the Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, particularly with Conley and Carter spending significant minutes together.

Best Five

Gasol, Randolph, Carter, Lee, Conley

This won't necessarily be the starting five, as head coach Dave Joerger has yet to pick a starter at the 3 spot. However, this will be the best and most common group Joerger uses.

Gasol, Randolph, Lee and Conley played 771 minutes together and produced 106.5 points per 100 possessions, 124 minutes and 0.9 points fewer than the core trio with Tayshaun Prince, according to NBA.com.

Due to Carter's superior offensive production compared to Prince's dismal 42.7 percent effective field-goal rate from last season, Joerger has little reason to prioritize Prince.

This set will give Memphis ample firepower. Conley and Randolph combined for 34.6 points per game last year. Gasol and Conley share passing duties. With Carter and Lee in the lineup together, they optimize their floor spacing.

Defensively, they'll be superb with Gasol and Conley leading the way. Lee and the core allowed 99 points per 100 possessions, as shown in the aforementioned NBA.com link, 1.6 fewer than Tony Allen and the core. Carter will give enough effort to be supportive.

Youth Movement

Rookie power forward Stokes will share minutes with Jon Leuer behind Randolph. Stokes, a tough inside presence, is closer to the Grizzlies archetype. He's bulky and long despite being a bit short for the position at 6'9" and 263 pounds with a 7'1" wingspan.

DraftExpress' Josh Riddell described Stokes as a premier rebounder, noting his strength, hard work on the offensive glass and nature as a "consistent ball hawk." His grit and strength make him a helpful interior defender.

Randolph told The Commercial Appeal (subscription required) that the 20-year-old is "a beast."

"He's strong. He's really strong. And he knows how to use his strength," the veteran said.

Stokes will receive significantly more minutes than fellow rookie Adams, who is buried in the shooting guard rotation behind Lee and Allen.

Team Award Predictions

Team MVP: Gasol

As he works through his contract year, the 29-year-old will be as big a difference-maker for the Grizzlies as last year. 

The Grizzlies allowed 101.5 points per 100 possessions after his return, eight fewer than before.

With his defensive leadership, they'll regain a season-long ranking among the best teams on that end. His rim protection and ability to take away driving lanes and make up for teammates' lapses will ensure their dominance. 

Most Turnovers Forced: Allen

The Grizzlies thrived on forcing turnovers in the first three years of the Grind Era, placing in the top 10 in steals and opponent turnover percentage each year. However, last year, they dropped to 14th and 12th in the two categories, respectively. As Gasol led the team's defensive resurgence, the opponent turnover rate was 13.7 percent, 0.5 lower than the season clip.

Conley and Allen led the team in steals during this period, with 564 and 442 in the past four seasons, respectively. But Allen is more likely to maintain this aggression. While Conley had a 3.4 percent steals rate in 2012-13, his 2.4 percent mark last year was 1.4 percent lower than Allen's.

As Conley leans more on defensive discipline, Allen will own this area.

Most Resilient Veteran: Carter

Memphis has five players older than 30, four of whom will be in the rotation throughout the season.

Carter's track record and playing style best equip him to stay at his best throughout the campaign. He hasn't missed more than nine games since 2002-03. Randolph, whose physical style poses a risk, is three seasons removed from his last prolonged absence, as is Prince. Allen missed 23 games in 2013-14. 

The 37-year-old evolved his game in recent years, taking more outside shots. He takes 60.5 percent of attempts from outside 15 feet. Allen and Randolph take the bulk of their shots inside 10 feet.

When Dust Settles...

The Western Conference became tougher, as the Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers deepened their rosters. Steve Ballmer's purchase of the Clippers and the continuity of the Spurs and Thunder calcifies the top three spots in the West, even if Durant's injury costs Oklahoma City a few wins.

The Grizzlies improved enough with the Carter signing and Gasol's health to once again find a place in the middle of the West's playoff bracket. Their defense alone causes enough teams problems to put them in the playoffs. Conley will average 18 points per game, with Randolph close behind. Carter's high-volume three-point shooting will lift the team's scoring average a bit.

Memphis won't keep up with the Blazers at the end of the regular season, but another hot second half will give them decent playoff positioning. Portland will hold the edge on the Grizzlies with what the Grizzlies lack—not one, but two high-volume scorers in Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge.

Win-loss prediction: 54-28 (fifth in the Western Conference)

Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from basketball-reference.com.