Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals
Some in St. Louis will call for manager Mike Matheny's head after the Cardinals fell to the San Francisco Giants in five games in the National League Championship Series.
That's to be expected when you fall one round short of the World Series and make some, shall we say, questionable decisions along the way.
But once emotions calm and sanity creeps back in, we'll remember that Matheny has steered the Cardinals to three consecutive NLCS appearances in his first three years on the job. Clearly, he's doing something right, and it's on him to learn from his mistakes moving forward.
Yet there are bound to be some changes in St. Louis this offseason, as the team makes its preparations for a fourth consecutive drive for the pennant—and perhaps more—in 2015.
What follows is a look at the decisions the team is going to have to make when it comes to the roster—and some reinforcements that could be brought in.
Payroll Breakdown
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St. Louis has been a postseason fixture since 2011—the first season that the team's Opening Day payroll eclipsed the $100 million mark.
With another deep October run, it's fair to assume that the Cardinals will stay close to their four-year average—roughly $112 million—once again in 2015.
With roughly $85 million committed to eight players heading into next season, you would think that wouldn't leave general manager John Mozeliak much wiggle room to make significant changes, especially after raises through arbitration and new deals for the team's pending free agents are worked out.
But as we're about to take a look, those raises may not be as substantial as we'd imagine them to be.
Arbitration-Eligible Players
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The Cardinals aren't faced with a ton of big-time players heading for arbitration, but one player in particular—Lance Lynn—is going to prove to be costly.
On the table below, projected salaries are loosely based on what the players listed for comparison received, either as a one-year deal or through the arbitration process, at similar points in their careers. You can find the exact figures for those players by clicking on the links included.
| Peter Bourjos | OF | $1,200,000 | $2,000,000 | Drew Stubbs |
| Tony Cruz | C | $521,000 | $700,000 | Drew Butera |
| Daniel Descalso | IF | $1,290,000 | $2,000,000 | Brendan Ryan |
| Jon Jay | OF | $3,250,000 | $4,500,000 | Gerardo Parra |
| Lance Lynn | SP | $535,000 | $5,000,000 | Jeff Samardzija |
| Shane Robinson | OF | $519,000 | $750,000 | Mike Baxter |
| Totals | $7,315,000 | $14,950,000 |
Lynn's salary is only going to continue to rise as he works his way through the arbitration process over the next few years, making a long-term extension with him the preferable option.
Given his age (27) and level of production (48-27, 3.48 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 from 2012-14), the risk to St. Louis appears to be minimal.
You could make a similar argument for Jon Jay, who over parts of five seasons has hit .295 with a .755 OPS.
While the Cardinals are deep in young, inexpensive outfield talent, Jay is really their only real full-time option in center, with Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Oscar Taveras best suited for a corner spot and Peter Bourjos most valuable as a late-inning defensive replacement.
Bringing back Tony Cruz, Daniel Descalso and Shane Robinson—the latter as organizational depth—makes sense given their relatively low price tags.
Players with Options and St. Louis' Free Agents
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If you thought St. Louis had a light load of players heading to arbitration, take a look at those with options on their deals and those heading for the open market:
| Mark Ellis | 2B | $5,250,000 | |
| John Lackey | C | $15,950,000 | Team Option (MLB minimum) |
| Justin Masterson | SP | $9,762,500 | |
| Jason Motte | RP | $7,500,000 | |
| Pat Neshek | RP | $1,000,000 | |
| A.J. Pierzynski | C | $8,250,000 |
There's really only one player whom the team needs to bring back, and John Lackey has already made that decision for the Cardinals. Due to a clause in his deal with the Boston Red Sox, the Cardinals can exercise a team option for the major league minimum in 2015—somewhere in the neighborhood of $500,000.
Shortly after he was traded from Boston to St. Louis, Lackey announced that he would honor his contract and play for the minimum in 2015, as originally reported by MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch.
Aside from Lackey, Pat Neshek would be the only other member of the pending free-agent class whom the Cardinals might make a priority to bring back.
That said, it's fair to assume that the 34-year-old is going to regress some in 2015 after pitching to a 1.87 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 2014, and his asking price may simply be too rich for the team's liking.
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Potential Free-Agent Targets
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On a team with few obvious holes, the Cardinals don't need to be players on the free-agent market. The infield, outfield and rotation are all set, leaving the bullpen—which, realistically, doesn't have many openings, as a potential area to bolster.
If we operate under the assumption that Marco Gonzales will continue to be developed as a starting pitcher, St. Louis could be in the market for another left-handed reliever in the bullpen, especially if it's not sold on the likes of Sam Freeman, Nick Greenwood, Tyler Lyons and Kevin Siegrist.
Here are a few left-handed relievers who could be on the team's shopping list this winter:
- Zach Duke: Once considered the future ace of Pittsburgh's rotation, Duke has developed into a reliable reliever who is tough against batters from both sides of the plate.
- Tom Gorzelanny: Like Duke, Gorzelanny is a former Pittsburgh starter-turned-reliever. He struggled against left-handed batters in 2014 but has a track record of success against them and would be on the cheaper end of the free-agent spectrum.
- Andrew Miller: Miller has been one of baseball's most dominant left-handed relievers over the past two seasons, pitching to a combined 2.23 ERA and 0.99 WHIP for Boston and Baltimore while striking out more than 14 batters per nine innings of work. Only downside would be cost, as he's likely looking for a deal like the one Boone Logan signed with Colorado last winter—three years, $16.5 million.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs; all payroll and salary information courtesy of Cot's Contracts. All player comparisons link to Baseball Prospectus.
Want to talk Cardinals' offseason plans or anything baseball-related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
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