Predicting the Baltimore Orioles' 2015 Opening Day Roster
Anyone who's read or seen Moneyball knows the stresses that come along with assembling a 25-man major league roster, especially in the wake of a disappointing dismissal from the postseason.
Unfortunately, the real-life version of team-building is even more stressful and daunting than the cinematic depiction.
Such is the task that falls at the feet of the Orioles front office and manager Buck Showalter.
With several departing free agents, nearly a dozen arbitration-eligible players and several holes in the lineup to fill, they'll have their work cut out for them.
The questions heading into this offseason are bountiful.
Do they re-sign Nelson Cruz? What about Chris Davis? Or Andrew Miller? Will Nick Markakis be willing to return to Baltimore for less money? Will Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy really be healthy in time for Opening Day? Which of the seven starters on the roster make the starting rotation? How big will Steve Pearce's raise be? Will the O's swing any trades this offseason? Will Ryan Flaherty return? Will Delmon Young? Who else will join Zach Britton and Darren O'Day in the bullpen?
Oy! It's enough to make one's head spin.
Luckily, we're here, to guide you through what looks to be an exciting, but possibly tumultuous offseason and hand to you a roster capable of competing next year, complete with salary estimates courtesy of my best guesses. Hopefully, we'll also answer all of the questions listed above along the way.
O's fans, meet your 2015 Baltimore Orioles.
CF Adam Jones
1 of 26
2014 Salary: $13.33 million
2015 Salary: $13.33 million
Despite Jones' dismal playoff performance (6-for-27, eight Ks) and his frustrating ability to lay off pitches in the dirt, the 29-year-old outfielder had another sensational season.
He was one of just five outfielders in baseball to hit more than 25 home runs, and he joined Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton as the only outfielders to hit at least 29 home runs, 30 doubles, score at least 80 runs and drive in at least 90. He was one of just six position players to reach those marks:
| R | 2B | HR | RBI | ||
| Mike Trout | LAA | 115 | 39 | 36 | 111 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | MIA | 89 | 31 | 37 | 105 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | 80 | 35 | 36 | 107 |
| Victor Martinez | DET | 87 | 33 | 32 | 103 |
| Nelson Cruz | BAL | 87 | 32 | 40 | 108 |
| Adam Jones | BAL | 88 | 30 | 29 | 96 |
He once again surpassed the 25-HR mark, making him the first outfielder in franchise history to string together four consecutive seasons with 25 or more long balls. With another, he'll tie Hall of Famer Frank Robinson for the most non-consecutive seasons in the history of the club.
He earned his fourth All-Star nod, after hitting .301 with 16 homers and 54 RBI during the first half.
Defensively, Jones wasn't as sharp, although he did make his fair share of highlight-worthy catches, including this one. He committed his first three errors since the end of the 2011 season, and notched just seven outfield assists, down from 11 in 2013.
Despite finishing just his seventh season with the Orioles, he's starting to find his name among Baltimore's franchise leaders.
He ranks third in Orioles' history with 69 HBPs and his 72 percent success rate on stolen base attempts is ninth on their all-time list.
He should crack the franchise top 10 in several categories in 2015, including home runs and sacrifice flies.
If we're looking for areas of improvement for Jones, who is scheduled to make $13.3 million in 2015, look no further than his .190 average with two strikes. Also, his performance against RHP could use some work. He posted nearly as many strikeouts (103) as he did hits (128) against right-handers in 2014.
And maybe his walk total, which has been on a decline since 2012 and bottomed out at 19 in 2014.
SP Ubaldo Jimenez
2 of 26
2014 Salary: $11.25 million
2015 Salary: $12.25 million
It's hard to find good things to say about Jimenez's 2014 campaign.
I suppose if you're really looking for a bright spot, you can point to his heart-warming victory in the Orioles' division-clinching game. He wasn't particularly sharp in that contest either (5 IP, 2 ER, 4 BB, 6 K), but the O's helped him out with eight runs of support.
He didn't win Jayson Stark's Cy Yuk honors, although he gave it his best with a 6-9 record and a 4.81 ERA. He somehow issued 77 walks, which ranked fifth in all of baseball and is amazing, considering he only appeared in 25 games. The four pitchers who issues more free passes each had at least 29 appearances. Had he pitched enough innings to qualify, his 1.516 WHIP would have been the second worst in the majors.
Perhaps the most telling fact from his debut season in Baltimore is that after the team shelled out $50 million in order to bring him in, he was dropped from the rotation and used sparingly, and in relief, during the final month of the season. He was mysteriously added to the ALDS roster, although he didn't make an appearance in the three-game sweep of Detroit, and he was left off of the ALCS roster altogether.
Perhaps the biggest question heading into 2015 is what do the Orioles do with Jimenez?
While he was on a DL stint, the O's got a long look at Kevin Gausman, who went 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA and seemingly locked down a spot on the roster for 2015, likely in the rotation.
It seems silly to plug Gausman and his 99 mph fastball into the bullpen, and with Wei-Yin Chen under contract, and Chris Tillman, Bud Norris and Miguel Gonzalez likely to return, not to mention Dylan Bundy, who will return from an injury that cost him nearly all of the 2014 season, it's hard to envision room for Jimenez.
My guess? The O's will let Jimenez prove himself in spring training and depending on the results, either go with a six-man rotation or bump the veteran right-hander into a long-relief role.
SS J.J. Hardy
3 of 26
2014 Salary: $7.41 million
2015 Salary: $11.5 million
Hardy cemented his long-term status with the Orioles by agreeing to a $40 million contract extension that runs through 2017, and possibly 2018 depending on the number of at-bats Hardy reaches.
Clearly the O's like the overall package that Hardy offers, despite the fact the he posted his lowest HR total since an injury-shortened season in 2010. While he wasn't a major contributor to the O's league-leading 211 home runs, he did his part at the plate, hitting a career-best .315 with runners in scoring position, and .341 with two outs and RISP, leading to 52 RBI.
As noted in a previous profile on his extension, Hardy's offensive numbers since 2011 stack up well against the other top shortstops in baseball, notably Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez. Since his first season in Baltimore, Hardy has out-homered everyone except Tulowitzki, and has driven in more runs than all except Ramirez.
And he's done that despite making $12.9 million less than Tulowitzki, $20.1 million less than Reyes and $30.6 million less than Ramirez.
Just for the record, Hardy's two Gold Gloves, since 2011, double the total won by Tulo (one), Reyes (zero) and Ramirez (zero) combined.
As good as he's been at the plate, the deal was really about locking up his services at shortstop, baseball's most demanding position, where he has thrived since joining the O's. He's won back-to-back Gold Gloves and has a serious chance at taking home his third this year.
Hardy's preparation, effort and poise have turned Baltimore's infield into one of the best defensive units in baseball, and in 2013 the unit as a whole posted the highest team fielding percentage in major league history.
Perhaps the biggest testament to the impact he's had in an Orioles uniform is that the team has a .538 winning percentage when he's played and a .443 mark when he hasn't.
Hardy's work this season with rookie Jonathan Schoop also shouldn't be overlooked. The 22-year-old saved the fifth-most runs (10) of any second baseman in 2014 and posted the fourth-highest fielding percentage (.987) in the American League, committing just seven errors in 551 total chances.
Just imagine how good this infield unit will be with Schoop a year wiser, a healthy Manny Machado and Hardy leading the way.
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RP Darren O'Day
4 of 26
2014 Salary: $3.2 million
2015 Salary: $4.25 million (club option)
It's hard to envision the O's not picking up the option on O'Day for 2015, especially after he's posted three consecutive seasons that are arguably the top three-year stretch by a non-closing reliever in franchise history.
And this is an organization that knows a thing or two about dominating non-closing relievers (see Armando Benitez, B.J. Ryan, Arthur Rhodes, etc.):
| Years | GP | ERA | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | WHIP | K/BB | WAR | |
| Darren O'Day | 2012-14 | 205 | 2.05 | 197.2 | 138 | 47 | 45 | 19 | 48 | 201 | 0.941 | 4.19 | 6.9 |
In a day and age when relievers bounce around from team to team, O'Day's run is even more impressive.
O'Day is part of a very select group of full-time pitchers (60+ innings) who have posted an ERA of 2.30 or lower the past three years. Select...as in two members. You may have heard of the other guy:
| Team | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
| Darren O'Day | BAL | 2.28 | 2.18 | 1.70 |
| Craig Kimbrel | ATL | 1.01 | 1.21 | 1.61 |
There are simply too many great things to be said about O'Day's season.
For instance, checking out his splits page on Baseball-Reference.com, we find that...
- He was just as tough against lefty hitters (.189) as he was against right-handers (.164).
- He allowed one or fewer earned run in April, May and July.
- Opposing 3-4-5 hitters hit a combined .241 off of him.
- Batters hit .089 off of him with RISP.
- He posted a 0.69 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 13 innings when making back-to-back appearances.
- He didn't allow a run (earned or unearned) to 10 of the 18 teams he faced.
- He posted a 1.82 ERA against AL East opponents.
- In 32 appearances at Camden Yards, he allowed just 17 hits, while striking out 42 of the 133 batters he faced.
Simply put, he served as the perfect bridge to closer Zach Britton.
There's no reason why that shouldn't continue in 2015.
RP Ryan Webb
5 of 26
2014 Salary: $1.75 million
2015 Salary: $2.75 million
Webb was signed to a two-year deal last winter, almost guaranteeing himself a spot in the 2015 bullpen.
If there was one thing that might prevent him from breaking camp with the club out of spring training, it would be his performance after the All-Star break in 2014:
| ERA | GP | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB | |
| Pre-All-Star | 3.18 | 38 | 39.2 | 33 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 1.034 | 7.3 | 4.00 |
| Post-All-Star | 6.52 | 13 | 9.2 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2.172 | 4.7 | 1.25 |
After posting a 1.76 ERA in May and a 1.50 mark in June, Webb posted an 11.50 in July and a 4.05 in September.
Things got so bad for Webb that he was optioned back to Triple-A when the O's acquired left-hander Andrew Miller from the Red Sox. He didn't fare too well there either, allowing eight runs (six earned) in just 11.1 innings.
Needless to say, he was left off the Orioles playoff roster, for both the division and championship series.
Interestingly, in many ways, Webb actually had one of his best years as a reliever, save for the demotion.
His 6.8 K/9 was a career best, as was his 2.2 BB/9. His WHIP was only marginally higher than it was in 2013, when he posted a 2.91 ERA for the Marlins. He posted a 24-to-2 K-to-BB mark against right-handed hitters, while lefties hit just .212. Against the 22 batters he went to an 0-1 count against, he allowed just three to reach base.
The Orioles figure to have a crowded rotation this year and, therefore, a crowded bullpen. All eyes will be on Webb during spring training, but I'm guessing he locks down a full-time role.
3B Manny Machado
6 of 26
2014 Salary: $519,000
2015 Salary: $567,000 (estimate)
The Orioles are blessed to have a team filled with young players making close to league minimum, which in 2014 was exactly $500,000.
Think of them as the Seattle Seahawks of MLB.
Following the trend of the past two seasons, the 2015 minimum should sit somewhere around $510,000, making Machado one of the best bargains in baseball. And while the O's would be wise to lock up the 22-year-old, they would love to get the most out of him while he still comes relatively cheap.
Troubling, however, are the knee injuries that have cost him a chance at finishing out either of the past two seasons with the club.
When on the field, however, Machado is a stud, a franchise player, the cornerstone on which the Orioles will build for the next five years. Take a look at what he did at the plate in just 82 games in 2014:
| GP | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | WAR | |
| Machado | 82 | 327 | 38 | 91 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 20 | 68 | 2 | .278 | .324 | .431 | 2.4 |
That's including a miserable opening month, in which he hit .220.
Defensively, he was his usual sensational self, racking up 1.0 WAR on defense, before his season was ended abruptly. He managed to save six runs in the short time he was on the field, which was good for 12th in the majors at third base. Had he played the entire year, he would have easily cracked the top five at the position.
We also would have been witness to one of the all-time battles for the Gold Glove with Machado pitted against expectant-winner Josh Donaldson.
Machado went under the knife on Aug. 27, and should be good to go in time for spring training.
The O's will welcome his return, seeing as how there aren't many 22-year-olds out there with an All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove and a top-10 MVP finish.
CP Zach Britton
7 of 26
2014 Salary: $521,500
2015 Salary: $565,000 (estimate)
What more can be said about Britton?
From not knowing if he would even make the Opening Day roster, to having an unspecified bullpen role, to producing one of the top single-season campaigns of any closer in team history, the year was full of surprises for the 26-year-old.
By locking down 37 saves, Britton became just the sixth pitcher in Baltimore's storied history to top 35 saves:
| R/L | Year | SV | ERA | |
| Jim Johnson | RHP | 2012 | 51 | 2.49 |
| Jim Johnson | RHP | 2013 | 50 | 2.94 |
| Randy Myers | RHP | 1997 | 45 | 1.51 |
| Zach Britton | LHP | 2014 | 37 | 1.65 |
| Gregg Olson | RHP | 1990 | 37 | 2.42 |
| Jorge Julio | RHP | 2003 | 36 | 4.38 |
| Gregg Olson | RHP | 1992 | 36 | 2.05 |
| B.J. Ryan | LHP | 2005 | 36 | 2.43 |
As you can see, he also became just the second left-handed closer to hit that mark, and just the second, with Randy Myers, to post 35 saves and a sub-2.00 ERA in the same season.
He finished 11th in all of baseball in saves and he allowed just one inherited runner to score all season, a lower number than Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland or David Robertson. He was also one of just 10 closers to achieve a save success rate of 90 percent or higher.
In continuing with recent tradition, he became a great ground-ball closer for Baltimore. His 3.04 GB/FB rate was the best in baseball, and allowed the defense to turn 13 double plays when he was on the mound. To put that in perspective, starters Bud Norris and Wei-Yin Chen were the only O's pitchers to induce more double plays.
Britton is in even more exclusive company, with Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins, as one of three active pitchers who have posted a 10-win season and a 35-save campaign.
Not bad for a guy who was fighting for a spot in the rotation last spring.
2B Jonathan Schoop
8 of 26
2014 Salary: $500,500
2015 Salary: $525,000 (estimate)
Like Manny Machado before him, Schoop earned a big league job long before anyone thought he would.
The 22-year-old infielder came into spring camp with the idea that the front office would get a long look at him before stashing him away at Triple-A Norfolk. He might earn a late-season call-up with an outside shot to earn a spot on the roster for 2015.
Instead, Schoop made the Opening Day roster, appeared in 137 games and emerged as the long-term solution at second base.
He wasn't just an easy out though. His campaign included just as many highlights as rookie moments, and in many regards, he was one of the top overall second basemen in the American League by the close of the season:
*Rankings from ESPN.com
With a full-season under his belt, he should have no problem improving his offensive numbers, including his batting average, which was negatively affected by 122 strikeouts. The O's were a high-strikeout kind of club, but whiffing in 27 percent of his at-bats, while walking only 13 times, won't be accepted as a regular thing on a Buck Showalter club.
Expect to see a more patient Schoop in 2015, and a lot of Hardy-to-Schoop-to-insert-first-baseman-here double plays.
SP Wei-Yin Chen
9 of 26
2014 Salary: $4.07 million
2015 Salary: $4.75 million (club option)
Chen topped the 10-win mark for the second time in three years, and established himself as the most consistent starter in the O's rotation, increasing the chances that the O's pick up his option for 2015.
The 29-year-old lefty notched a team-high 16 victories in 2014, a number that was good for 10th in the majors and fourth in the American League. He also finished tops among O's starters in BB/9 and K/BB.
Unfortunately, he didn't fare as well in the postseason, posting a 7.00 ERA in two starts.
At a cost of just over $4 million, however, he was quite the bargain. The 79th-highest paid pitcher in baseball easily out-pitched some of the guys in the top 20:
| Pitcher | TM | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | K | WHIP | WAR | 2014 Salary |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 16 | 6 | 3.54 | 31 | 185.2 | 193 | 73 | 23 | 35 | 136 | 1.228 | 1.8 | $4.0 million |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 15 | 12 | 4,54 | 32 | 206.0 | 223 | 104 | 18 | 65 | 159 | 1.398 | 1.1 | $20.0 million |
| Tim Lincecum | SF | 12 | 9 | 4.74 | 26 | 155.2 | 154 | 82 | 19 | 63 | 134 | 1.394 | -0.7 | $17.0 million |
| John Danks | CHW | 11 | 11 | 4.74 | 32 | 193.2 | 205 | 102 | 25 | 74 | 129 | 1.441 | 1.1 | $15.7 million |
A returning duo of Chen and Chris Tillman atop the rotation would go a long way to helping the O's defend their division crown.
SP Chris Tillman
10 of 26
2014 Salary: $546,000
2015 Salary: $3 million (estimate; first year of arbitration)
The word "ace" doesn't get thrown around easily in baseball and is reserved for the Clayton Kershaws and the Adam Wainwrights of the world, but over the past two-and-a-half seasons, Tillman has certainly pitched like one.
Since the 2012 All-Star break, the 26-year-old has posted a 37-16 record with an ERA under 3.50, out-pitching some of the biggest names in baseball:
| TM | W | L | W-L% | ERA | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | K | K/BB | |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 37 | 16 | .698 | 3.48 | 81 | 491.1 | 437 | 190 | 66 | 156 | 388 | 2.49 |
| Jon Lester | BOS | 35 | 27 | .565 | 3.47 | 80 | 526.0 | 497 | 203 | 49 | 153 | 469 | 3.07 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SF | 37 | 23 | .617 | 2.93 | 76 | 500.0 | 396 | 163 | 49 | 122 | 481 | 3.94 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 34 | 27 | .557 | 3.74 | 81 | 530.0 | 531 | 220 | 45 | 170 | 487 | 2.86 |
So maybe he hasn't pitched like Kershaw or Wainwright, but really, who has? Stacking up favorably against the likes of Lester, Verlander and Bumgarner? That is something to be proud of.
Another guy whose numbers Tillman matches up favorably against are former Oriole Mike Mussina, especially in both pitchers' age 24-26 periods:
| YRS | W | L | W-L% | ERA | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | K | K/BB | |
| Chris Tillman | 2012-14 | 38 | 16 | .704 | 3.42 | 82 | 499.2 | 439 | 190 | 66 | 158 | 395 | 2.50 |
| Mike Mussina | 1993-95 | 49 | 20 | .710 | 3.56 | 81 | 565.2 | 513 | 224 | 63 | 136 | 374 | 2.75 |
Expecting Tillman to win 199 games after he turns 27, like Mussina did, is probably too much to ask, but it's definitely an encouraging sign to those who doubt Tillman's stature atop the O's rotation.
For the first time in his career, Tillman is due a significant raise. This will be his first offseason in which he is arbitration eligible, so he figures to more than triple the $546,000 he made in 2014.
Even at an expected price of $3 million to $4 million, Tillman is a steal for what he offers.
SP Bud Norris
11 of 26
2014 Salary: $5.3 million
2015 Salary: $8 million (estimate; third year of arbitration)
Norris has quietly gone about his business since joining the O's for the stretch run last year.
He went 4-3 during the final two months of the 2013 campaign, and posted a 15-8 mark this year, giving him a 19-11 record in 39 appearances with Baltimore.
He figures to be a rotation mainstay in 2015, although for the third consecutive year he will be due a considerable raise. He made $5.3 million in 2014, and that number should rise to somewhere around $8 million in 2015, making him the highest paid Orioles starter not named Ubaldo Jimenez.
The increase in pay should bring some added expectations for Norris, such as cracking the 200-inning mark, a number he likely would have topped if not for a groin injury that cost him close to a month. Going deeper into games would also help. While he went at least five innings in all but two of his 28 starts, he pitched into the eighth on only three occasions.
IF/OF Steve Pearce
12 of 26
2014 Salary: $850,000
2015 Salary: $6.5 million (estimate)
Pearce produced an outstanding 6.0 WAR in 2014, and was arguably the best bargain in baseball, making just $850,000.
Among the 14 position players that posted a WAR of 6.0 or higher, Pearce had the third-lowest cost per win above average:
| Player | Team | WAR | Salary | Cost per Win | Runs Saved |
| Josh Donaldson | OAK | 7.4 | $500,000 | $67,568 | 20 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | 7.9 | $1,000,000 | $126,583 | -9 |
| Steve Pearce | BAL | 6.0 | $850,000 | $141,667 | 17 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | 6.0 | $1,250,000 | $208,333 | -7 |
| Michael Brantley | CLE | 7.0 | $1,500,000 | $214,286 | -3 |
| Anthony Rendon | WAS | 6.5 | $1,800,000 | $276,923 | 16 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | MIL | 6.7 | $2,000,000 | $298,507 | 11 |
| Jason Heyward | ATL | 6.3 | $4,500,000 | $714,286 | 32 |
| Alex Gordon | KC | 6.6 | $10,000,000 | $1,515,151 | 27 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | MIA | 6.5 | $6,500,000 | $1,000,000 | 7 |
| Andrew McCutcheon | PIT | 6.4 | $7,250,000 | $1,132,813 | -11 |
| Jose Bautista | TOR | 6.0 | $14,000,000 | $2,333,333 | -7 |
| Adrian Beltre | TEX | 7.0 | $17,000,000 | $2,428,571 | -9 |
| Robinson Cano | SEA | 6.4 | $24,000,000 | $3,750,000 | 0 |
Quite possibly the most amazing part of the 31-year-old's season was that he was actually released by the Orioles in late April. He re-signed a few days later, and went on to become a mainstay in the lineup, seeing time at three different positions and posting a .293/.373/.556 line.
Pearce's bat went silent in the ALCS, as he notched only one hit in 17 at-bats, but there's no doubt the O's would like to bring him back. While it will cost more than the $850,000 he made in 2014, he should come in for a lower rate than the $10.35 million that Chris Davis made last year.
In fact, the O's could save some money and get possibly more production (and fewer strikeouts) at first base by letting Davis test free agency and bringing back Pearce.
C Caleb Joseph
13 of 26
2014 Salary: $500,000
2015 Salary: $525,000 (estimate)
Joseph did an incredible job subbing for All-Star Matt Wieters in 2014.
Not only did he club nine home runs among his 18 extra-base hits, but he also threw out an AL-best 40.4 percent of runners attempting to steal.
Long considered an offensive-minded catcher, Joseph really showed his worth behind the plate given extended playing time. He made headlines midseason by becoming the first Orioles catcher to homer in five straight games.
At $500,000, he's also considerably cheaper than Nick Hundley, who is scheduled to receive a bump in pay to $5 million in 2015.
While Joseph likely doesn't have a bat capable of carrying him through an entire season as a starter, he's a more-than-capable backup should the O's retain Wieters.
LF Alejandro De Aza
14 of 26
2014 Salary: $4.25 million
2015 Salary: $5 million (estimate; third year of arbitration)
The O's tried to make a late-season splash by trading for De Aza on Aug. 30.
The move paid off handsomely for Baltimore, who absorbed just under $700,000 of the $4.25 million he was due on the year. In exchange, the O's got a .291/.341/.593 line in 20 games.
De Aza was also Baltimore's best all-around player in the postseason, hitting .375 against the Tigers and .308 against the Royals.
While it seems like a long shot for the front office to bring the 31-year-old back, it could be a great deal considering how well he played down the stretch, for both the Orioles and the White Sox.
Keep in mind, De Aza hit a paltry .232 during the first half of the season, impacted tremendously by an awful start to the season. His numbers got progressively stronger over the course of the season:
| GP | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| March/April | 28 | 92 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 21 | 3 | .185 | .255 | .359 |
| May | 27 | 87 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 3 | .161 | .237 | .195 |
| June | 23 | 63 | 9 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 5 | .365 | .423 | .540 |
| July | 22 | 76 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 2 | .263 | .333 | .355 |
| August | 22 | 77 | 9 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 2 | .286 | .337 | .377 |
| Sept/Oct | 20 | 82 | 11 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 19 | 2 | .293 | .341 | .537 |
| TOTAL | 142 | 477 | 56 | 120 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 41 | 39 | 119 | 17 | .252 | .314 | .386 |
If De Aza can play like he did from June until the end of the season, he could be a great value in 2015. He offers more speed than Nelson Cruz or Steve Pearce, and his on-base skills would allow the team more offensive opportunities.
Defensively, he's not as rangy as he once was, but the O's have two of the best at their position in center and right field, so they could easily make do with De Aza in left.
RP Brian Matusz
15 of 26
2014 Salary: $2.4 million
2015 Salary: $3.2 million (estimate; second year of arbitration)
Since converting to a reliever during the 2012 season, Matusz has shown the ability that made him the No. 4 overall pick back in 2008:
| GP | W | L | ERA | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | AVG | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB | |
| Starter | 68 | 21 | 33 | 5.51 | 354.2 | 413 | 231 | 217 | 57 | 139 | 281 | .290 | 1.556 | 7.1 | 2.02 |
| Reliever | 146 | 5 | 4 | 3.26 | 116.0 | 99 | 46 | 42 | 11 | 36 | 122 | .228 | 1.164 | 9.5 | 3.39 |
This season was more of the same for the lefty. He appeared in 63 games, posting a 3.48 ERA and striking out 53 batters in 51.2 innings. Left-handers pit a paltry .228 off of him compared to .277 for right-handers.
This brings us to a major concern for Matusz.
For his career, right-handers hit .303 off of him, compared to .211 off lefties. Yet, in 2014, Matusz faced 114 right-handed hitters and 112 left-handed hitters. Doesn't this sound like the guy who should only be facing lefties?
This leads to our next concern.
Do the Orioles really want to pay over $3 million a year for a lefty specialist?
Probably not.
Given Showalter's propensity for eschewing matchups like lefty-lefty in favor of hitter-vs.-pitcher, it won't come as a surprise when Matusz returns to the bullpen in 2015.
SP Kevin Gausman
16 of 26
2014 Salary: $502,500
2015 Salary: $512,500 (estimate)
After spending the 2013 season shuffling back and forth from Triple-A to the big leagues, and from the rotation to the bullpen, Gausman was treated to a more consistent approach.
Every one of his 32 appearances came in the form of starts, 12 in the minors and 20 with the Orioles. Not surprisingly, he flourished, posting a 3.18 ERA for Triple-A Norfolk and a 3.57 mark with the big league club.
In addition to flashing some premium velocity that sometimes touched triple digits, Gausman located his pitches better and learned to pitch deeper into games. He cut his H/9 rate despite more than doubling his number of innings pitched.
Down the stretch, the 23-year-old was brilliant, allowing 10 runs in his final five starts, four of which were against division opponents. Gausman went 0-1 during the month, however, because he received just seven runs of support from the offense.
Gausman was sent to the bullpen during the postseason and provided the team with 8.1 masterful innings in relief, allowing four hits and a single run while striking out seven.
If the front office knows what's good for them, Gausman will be an anchor in the back of the rotation from the first day of spring training.
He has the talent, and he's earned his shot.
IF Ryan Flaherty
17 of 26
2014 Salary: $512,500
2015 Salary: $890,000 (estimate; first year of arbitration)
The animosity some O's fans have for Flaherty boiled over in 2014, as the utility infielder posted another low-.200 batting average.
For all the anger that Flaherty inspires, there are just as many ardent supporters of his game. Google his name and you'll see results such as "In Defense of Ryan Flaherty" and "All the hate for Ryan Flaherty is unfounded."
More recently, yours truly published a piece on Flaherty, labeling him as not only an underrated player but also one of the top utility players in baseball.
Yes, he hit only .221 in 2014 but he set career highs in runs, hits, doubles, RBI and walks, and during stretches in which he earned two or three starts in a row he performed very well.
And then there was his performance in the postseason. After hitting .273 with one homer during the O's 2012 playoff run, Flaherty picked right up where he left off, hitting a combined .286 in seven games this year, hitting another home run and driving in four runs, while walking four times. In 11 career games, the 28-year-old "utility player" has posted a .281/.361/.469 line and driven in five runs.
The only thing preventing Flaherty from becoming an everyday player is his low average. He can hit for power, he's shown good patience at the plate and he can play multiple positions.
Despite playing in over 260 games in his career, Flaherty has accumulated roughly a full-season's worth of at-bats (680), and the results of his performance are telling: 28 doubles, 23 home runs, 78 RBI.
With the infield set at second base, shortstop and third, there doesn't appear to be a chance that Flaherty will earn the everyday job that he covets, but the O's could do a lot worse for a utility infielder.
OF Delmon Young
18 of 26
2014 Salary: $1 million
2015 Salary: $1.75 million (estimate)
It's hard to not envision Young back with the Orioles after his tremendous 2014 campaign, one that saw him develop into the best pinch-hitter in baseball, as well as coming up with arguably the biggest hit of the season in the ALDS vs. Detroit.
As a heavy bat off the bench, it's hard to do better than Young. He posted a .302/.337/.442 line in 242 at-bats last year, racking up 19 extra-base hits, including seven homers, and 30 RBI.
It was well-documented throughout the postseason that Young hit .500 (10-for-20) as a pinch-hitter during the regular season, driving in five runs. He went 2-for-2 as a pinch-hitter during the playoffs, notching four more RBI.
In limited starting duty, Young also shined, posted a .288/.320/.420 line in 56 starts.
Much was also made of the uber-aggressive Young's ability to do damage swinging at the first pitch of an at-bat, and the numbers clearly reflect that he was one of the most dangerous first-pitch hitters in baseball, going 17-for-40 (.425).
He was also clutch in the later innings, hitting .308 during the eighth and .375 during the ninth.
It seems as though Showalter would welcome Young back with open arms in 2015, but it will likely cost more than the $1 million he was paid in 2014.
RP Brad Brach
19 of 26
2014 Salary: $509,500
2015 Salary: $515,000 (estimate)
Brach was truly the unsung member of an Orioles bullpen that was one of the best in baseball.
Most O's fan wondered what kind of value the 28-year-old reliever would have after being targeted in a trade last November. They had to be left scratching their heads, too, when Brach was stashed at Triple-A Norfolk for the first month and a half of the season.
Eventually he was called up and the rest is history. He appeared in 46 games, posted a 3.18 ERA and notched seven victories.
Brach provided relief when and wherever it was needed, making appearances in every inning but the first, sometimes getting just one or two outs, and sometimes going four innings. No matter the position, Brach carved his way through opposing hitters, holding them to a .216 average. He allowed only six home runs all season in 62.1 innings.
He continued his winning ways in the playoffs, picking up the W in relief against Detroit in Game 2.
Brach was one of just two relievers on the roster who came relatively cheap, however, as the $510,000 he made was the second lowest of any pitcher on the staff:
| GP | 2014 Salary | Cost/GP | |
| Zach Britton | 71 | $521,500 | $7,435 |
| Brad Brach | 46 | $509,500 | $11,076 |
| T.J. McFarland | 37 | $505,500 | $13,662 |
| Andrew Miller | 73 | $1,903,125 | $26,070 |
| Ryan Webb | 51 | $1,750,000 | $34,314 |
| Evan Meek | 23 | $800,000 | $34,783 |
| Brian Matusz | 63 | $2,400,000 | $38,095 |
| Darren O'Day | 68 | $3,200,000 | $47,059 |
| Tommy Hunter | 60 | $3,000,000 | $50,000 |
In terms of appearances, he was the second best bargain in the bullpen. Brach still isn't arbitration eligible, so he should be one of the most likely to return.
RP Andrew Miller
20 of 26
2014 Salary: $1.9 million
2015 Salary: $8 million (estimate)
Here's a quick test for all you baseball-savvy readers. How many relievers make more than $8 million per year?
If you answered two, then you're spot on. If you could name them (Brian Wilson and Brandon League), then extra kudos.
The Orioles were in possession, for a short time, of a player who could possibly be the third active reliever to crack the $8 million mark. Will the Orioles be willing to pay that much for Miller's services, however?
If he pitches like he did in 2014, you'd think they would have to give it some serious thought. In 50 games with the Red Sox, Miller struck out 14.7 batters per nine innings and allowed just 11 earned runs in 42.1 innings. Once he joined the Orioles, he was even better, allowing just three earned runs in 20 innings, while striking out 15.3 per nine innings pitched.
In his first taste of the playoffs, he was virtually unhittable, allowing just three batters to reach base (one hit, one walk, one HBP) in 7.1 innings. He struck out eight of the 24 hitters he faced.
Current closer Zach Britton had a tremendous year, reigniting the belief that he may have what it takes to move back into the rotation. If that is in fact the case, the O's would be wise to lock up Miller to a three- or four-year deal and install him in the pivotal role.
RP T.J. McFarland
21 of 26
2014 Salary: $505,500
2015 Salary: $520,00 estimate
How blessed are the Orioles that they've had two Rule 5 draft picks stick with the big league club and become meaningful contributors?
Granted, Ryan Flaherty and T.J. McFarland are no Johan Santana, but they do represent two of the most impactful players to emerge from the Rule 5 in the past five to 10 years.
McFarland excelled again in 2014, despite bouncing from the minors to the majors and from role to role. He finished the year with a 2.76 ERA in 37 appearances, which included a spot start. The left-hander improved his results by drastically cutting his walk rate and the number of home runs allowed.
He was particularly hard to hit in the second half of the season, posting a 2.01 ERA over 17 appearances. In that same period, he improved his K/BB rate from 2.0 to 4.7. He didn't allow a home run over his final 20 appearances and allowed just two all season.
McFarland has proved his versatility, and his worth, and at an estimated cost of $520,000, he'd be an excellent, cheap addition to a revamped Orioles bullpen in 2015.
RF Nick Markakis
22 of 26
2014 Salary: $15.35 million
2015 Salary: $10.35 million (estimate)
Needless to say, the Orioles will not be picking up Nick the Stick's $17 million option for 2015.
They are, however, interested in bringing the 30-year-old right fielder back to the franchise he's called home since being drafted back in 2003.
The longest-tenured Oriole on the roster in 2014, Markakis provided invaluable leadership during the team's run to the American League East crown. He wasn't too shabby at the plate either, hitting .276 with 14 home runs. He reached a couple of personal milestones along the way.
- 300th career double
- 500th career walk
- 1,500th career hit
- Sixth season with at least 75 runs scored
- Sixth season with at least 175 hits
- Ninth season with at least 50 RBI
More important, Markakis got to participate in the postseason for the first time in his career, scratching him off the list of active players with the most games played who've never set foot in the playoffs. He ranked third, and then second after the elimination of Oakland's Adam Dunn in the AL Wild Card Game.
Markakis has had such an impressive career that he's now finding his name all over the Orioles record books. He ranks among the franchise top 10 in several categories, including:
| Markakis | All-Time Rank | Record | Franchise Record Holder | |
| At Bats | 5,331 | 10th | 11,551 | Cal Ripken Jr. |
| Hits | 1,547 | 7th | 3,184 | Cal Ripken Jr. |
| Total Bases | 2,318 | 8th | 5,168 | Cal Ripken Jr. |
| Doubles | 316 | 7th | 603 | Cal Ripken Jr. |
| Runs Created | 838 | 10th | 1,729 | Cal Ripken Jr. |
| Extra Base Hits | 473 | 9th | 1,078 | Cal Ripken Jr. |
| Sacrifice Flies | 45 | 10th | 127 | Cal Ripken Jr. |
Assuming he is brought back, Markakis will crack the top 10 in several other categories, including games played (1365), runs scored (749), RBI (658), walks (553) and intentional walks (40).
As consistent as Markakis has been at the plate, he's been even better in the field.
He was the only everyday right fielder in baseball to maintain a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage, despite ranking fourth in most innings played at the position. In fact, he didn't commit an error last season either, meaning he's now gone 328 games since making his last fielding mistake, shattering the franchise record of 234 consecutive games held by B.J. Surhoff.
Just for the record, the American League record is 336, held by Rich Amaral, and the major league mark is held by Darren Lewis, who went 392 games without an error in the early 1990s. Both numbers could be reached during the 2015 campaign.
His 11 outfield assists ranked second to Jose Bautista for most among right fielders, and it marked the fifth time in his career that Markakis had at least 10.
Among active players, Markakis ranks third in both games played in RF (1,325) and putouts (2,605) and fourth in assists (92). He's eighth in assists among active outfielders, regardless of position.
Now that all that's said, it's time to get down to whether the Orioles are going to make a deal to bring back Markakis, who at $15.3 million was the 10th-highest paid outfielder (fourth among RFs) in baseball last year.
While he probably doesn't deserve to be paid like a top-five player at his position, there's no doubt that Markakis is one of the top 10 right fielders in the game, so he likely won't accept a salary reduction of more than $5 million.
Now if the front office could just figure out a way to get him out of the leadoff spot and into a more comfortable position in the lineup.
C Matt Wieters
23 of 26
2014 Salary: $7.7 million
2015 Salary: $10 million (estimate)
Long considered a player who would be poached by a big-market team such as the Yankees or Red Sox once he hit free agency, Wieters is coming off Tommy John surgery. After playing in just 26 games in 2014, it seems likely that the market for him isn't as strong as it once was.
Before missing the majority of 2014, Wieters had proven to be incredibly durable, appearing in an average of 140 games each of the previous four seasons. He averaged 22 home runs and 77 RBI from 2011-13 and was on pace for career-high numbers when he was shut down with elbow soreness in early May.
As important as Wieters was at the plate, he was even more valuable behind it, providing Gold Glove-caliber defense and mentoring a young Orioles rotation that emerged into one of the best in the American League. Had he stayed healthy, he would have been a relative bargain at $7.7 million.
Even after his season-ending injury, he earned praise for staying with the club and mentoring both Caleb Joseph and Nick Hundley, as well as putting in some time with the pitching staff. He was even spotted scouting a late-season game in Detroit, according to MLB.com's David Wilson.
Only six other catchers made more than Wieters last year.
| GP | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | RBI | WAR | CS% | dWAR | Runs Saved | 2014 Salary | ||
| Brian McCann | NYY | 108 | .232/.286/.406 | 23 | 75 | 1.8 | 37% | 0.7 | 2 | $17,000,000 |
| Yadier Molina | STL | 107 | .282/.333/.386 | 7 | 38 | 2.4 | 48% | 1.5 | 8 | $15,200,000 |
| Buster Posey | SF | 111 | .311/.364/.490 | 22 | 89 | 5.2 | 30% | 0.2 | -4 | $11,277,777 |
| Miguel Montero | ARZ | 131 | .243/.329/.370 | 13 | 72 | 0.7 | 29% | 0.0 | -7 | $10,000,000 |
| Russell Martin | PIT | 107 | .290/.402/.430 | 11 | 67 | 2.2 | 39% | 2.0 | 12 | $9,500,000 |
| Carlos Ruiz | PHI | 109 | .252/.347/.370 | 6 | 31 | 3.2 | 28% | 1.6 | 8 | $8,500,000 |
His 162-game averages make it obvious that Wieters deserves to be one of the top-five paid catchers in baseball. The only question is, do the Orioles want to pay that much?
They got serviceable production from backups Joseph and Hundley in 2014, but neither provides the offense that Wieters offers.
My guess is the O's work long and hard to hammer out a deal with Wieters over the winter, and he's locked into a one-year contract come Opening Day. If he stays healthy, and performs as expected, a long-term deal could be in the cards.
An interesting stat that could factor into the O's decision to retain Wieters is his work with Ubaldo Jimenez. After losing four of his first five starts with Wieters behind the mound, the O's $50 million man turned in arguably his two best starts of the season, going 2-0 with a 13-to-3 K-to-BB ratio and just one earned run allowed in 12.2 innings. He went 4-5 with a 4.85 ERA the rest of the way.
Would a full season's worth of Jimenez starts with Wieters behind the plate look more in line with what the Orioles were expecting from their "ace"?
IF Luis Sardinas
24 of 26
2014 Salary: $500,000
2015 Salary: $515,000 (estimate)
Proposed Trade: SP Miguel Gonzalez to Texas for IF Luis Sardinas
According to MASNsports.com's to stash at Triple-A in case J.J. Hardy or Jonathan Schoop are felled by injury in 2015.
By trading for Sardinas, they can solve that problem.
The 21-year-old Venezeulan held his own in his first season in the majors, hitting .261 in limited playing time. He showed good speed and the ability to take an extra base, and he filled in admirably at second base, shortstop and third for the Rangers.
He'll be hard-pressed to find playing time in Texas, where the Rangers have long-term answers at both shortstop (Elvis Andrus) and second base (Rougned Odor). They also have some talented infielders stashed in the minors, namely 2B/3B Travis Demeritte and SS Ti'Quan Forbes.
As for the Orioles, they have a glut of starting pitching, and only five slots. Chris Tillman, Bud Norris, Wei-Yin Chen and Kevin Gausman are all but guaranteed spots, and they pretty much have their hands tied with the contract of Ubaldo Jimenez, so they're likely to give him a chance to earn a spot as well.
That leaves Gonzalez as the odd man out. He's pitched too well at the big league level to spend the majority of the season back at Triple-A. Also, the O's have a crop of up-and-coming arms in the upper level of the minors, including Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Zach Davies and Tim Berry.
Dealing him for Sardinas makes a ton of sense, even if it means losing the Yankee-killer Gonzalez.
1B Anthony Rizzo
25 of 26
2014 Salary: $1.25 million
2015 Salary: $5 million
Proposed Trade: RHP Dylan Bundy, RHP Parker Bridwell, RHP Pat Connaughton and 1B Christian Walker to Chicago for 1B Anthony Rizzo and OF Matt Szczur
Those of you who are saying "wait a second, Rizzo doesn't play for the Orioles" are 100 percent correct. But the O's could pull off a major deal to bring a franchise first baseman to Baltimore. They have the pieces and the Cubs have proven to be a willing trade partner the past few years.
Here's how this deal could get done.
The O's have a glut of starting pitchers. While several will be dangled over the offseason, the most intriguing has to be Dylan Bundy, who's returning from an injury that robbed him of a great chunk of the 2014 season. Just 22 years old, he's got a bright future ahead of him assuming he can stay healthy. Unfortunately, there's just no room for him in the O's rotation. Let's build the deal around Bundy.
According to Kubatko, at least one team has been after fireballer Parker Bridwell the past few years, and while the O's have been reluctant to part with him, the time might finally be right. He's flashed dominating stuff, but he's still far enough away from the majors that the likelihood of him becoming a superstar is low.
Theo Epstein and the Cubs development team value athleticism, possibly more than any other front office in baseball. Right-hander Pat Connaughton was one of the top athletes in the 2014 draft, and the O's targeted the two-sport star in the fourth round. He's got a big league body and looked dominating at times for Notre Dame. Since he was drafted less than a year ago, Connaughton would have to be added to the deal as a player to be named later.
And last but not least, the O's would be wise to send the Cubs a first baseman right back to sweeten the deal. Christian Walker had a tremendous season last year, and even got a look with the big league club. He's got great power, and he's improved his defense to the point that he could be an asset defensively.
Now, the big question. Why would the Cubs have interest in trading a cornerstone player who they just signed to a team-friendly seven-year, $41 million deal?
For starters, they have hands-down the top farm system in baseball, and that system boasts several players who could be destined for spots in the infield. Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez all seem destined to end up at either third or first base, and the team has the mammoth Dan Vogelbach (6'0'', 250 lbs) waiting in the wings as well. There's no way he can play anywhere else. Simply put, Rizzo is expendable, as long as he brings in a decent haul.
Plugging another hole in the rotation with Bundy, getting a couple of long-term projects with high ceilings in Bridwell and Connaughton, and a placeholder at first base in Walker just might be enough to pry away a guy who hit .286 with 32 home runs, and drew a fair share of walks.
Rizzo will make $5 million in 2015, less than half of what Chris Davis made in 2014, making him an incredibly attractive option should the O's choose to part ways with Davis.
2015 Opening Day 25-Man Roster
26 of 26
| Starting Lineup | Bench | Starting Rotation | Bullpen | |
| RF | Nick Markakis | Ryan Flaherty | Chris Tillman | Brian Matusz |
| 3B | Manny Machado | Delmon Young | Wei-Yin Chen | Ryan Webb |
| CF | Adam Jones | Luis Sardinas | Bud Norris | Darren O'Day |
| 1B | Anthony Rizzo | Caleb Joseph | Ubaldo Jimenez | Zach Britton |
| DH | Steve Pearce | Kevin Gausman | Andrew Miller | |
| C | Matt Wieters | Brad Brach | ||
| SS | J.J. Hardy | T.J. McFarland | ||
| LF | Alejandro De Aza | |||
| 2B | Jonathan Schoop | |||
All salary information courtesy of Spotrac.com
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com
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