Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the Baltimore Orioles
Sometimes, the baseball gods just don't smile down upon you.
Such is the situation that the Baltimore Orioles found themselves in during the ALCS against Kansas City, swept by the upstart wild-card club in four games. The sting felt from losing a playoff series is bad enough—being swept only makes the sting that much more painful.
Had Chris Davis, Manny Machado and Matt Wieters been available, perhaps things would have worked out differently. But that trio will be back on the field for Baltimore in 2015, and the Orioles have plenty to be proud of, including the team's first AL East crown since 1997.
That said, some changes are coming.
What follows is an overview of some of the decisions that the team is going to have to make—and some of the players they may look to in order to bolster the roster for a return trip to the ALCS, and perhaps the Fall Classic, in 2015.
Payroll Breakdown
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Baltimore opened the 2014 season with a payroll over $100 million for the first time in team history, and there's certainly a connection to be made between the increase in spending and the team's on-field success.
Which begs the question: Will owner Peter Angelos open his checkbook even wider this winter? If the Orioles are going to stay at or near the top of the American League East, the answer is going to have to be yes.
Not counting players with options or those who are arbitration eligible, Baltimore has five players under contract for 2015—Dylan Bundy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy and Ryan Webb—for just over $41 million.
Assuming the team stays in the same payroll range, that leaves Dan Duquette, executive vice president of baseball operations, roughly $67 million to fill out the roster.
That's not a heck of a lot of cash, especially when you consider some of the big names that have substantial raises coming their way.
Looming on the horizon, however, is the team's ongoing legal battle with the Washington Nationals over television revenue. Should the Orioles lose that fight, it's entirely possible that Angelos will tighten his purse strings.
Arbitration-Eligible Players
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More than a dozen members of the Orioles are eligible for arbitration this offseason, a list that includes three-fifths of the team's starting rotation and a pair of former All-Stars. Things could get expensive quickly.
On the table below, projected salaries are loosely based on what the player listed for comparison received, either as a one-year deal or through the arbitration process, at similar points in their careers. You can find the exact figures for those players by clicking on the links included.
| Zach Britton | CL | $521,500 | $1,500,000 | Jake McGee |
| Chris Davis | 1B | $10,350,000 | $11,000,000 | No comparison |
| Alejandro De Aza | OF | $4,250,000 | Non-tender candidate | N/A |
| Ryan Flaherty | IF | $512,500 | $750,000 | Zack Cozart |
| Miguel Gonzalez | SP | $529,000 | $875,000 | Alfredo Simon |
| Tommy Hunter | RP | $3,000,000 | $4,000,000 | Andrew Bailey |
| Steve Lombardozzi | UTIL | $517,500 | Non tender candidate | N/A |
| Brian Matusz | RP | $2,400,000 | $3,500,000 | Eric O'Flaherty |
| Evan Meek | RP | $800,000 | Non-tender candidate | N/A |
| Bud Norris | SP | $5,300,000 | $6,950,000 | Kyle Kendrick |
| Steve Pearce | 1B/OF | $850,000 | $1,650,000 | Lucas Duda |
| Chris Tillman | SP | $546,000 | $2,500,000 | Homer Bailey |
| Matt Wieters | C | $7,700,000 | $8,000,000 | No comparison |
| Totals | $37,276,500 | $41,225,000 |
If my projections are anywhere near accurate, Baltimore's payroll increase through the arbitration process will be far less painful than it will be for other playoff teams.
Between his adderall-fueled suspension and drastic drop in production, Chris Davis isn't going to get a hefty raise, and neither is Matt Wieters, who missed much of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Their camps will certainly point to past production as a reason for significant raises, a stance the Orioles will strongly argue against. Ultimately, they'll wind up with minimal increases.
While Alejandro De Aza was terrific in the playoffs for the Orioles, he was probably going to be non-tendered by the White Sox had Baltimore not acquired him. A hot streak in the postseason doesn't erase that. The Orioles will look to bring him back, but not on a deal that pays him more than $5 million based on a few weeks of production.
Zach Britton, Bud Norris and Chris Tillman are all candidates for long-term extensions, and it's possible that the Orioles could work out back-loaded deals to give the team more payroll flexibility in 2015. If not, the trio will see their compensation increase by a combined $7.5 million (roughly).
The days of Steve Pearce accepting non-roster invitations to spring training and minor league contracts are over, and the longtime journeyman will be rewarded for a terrific season (.293 BA, 21 HR, 49 RBI, .930 OPS) by Baltimore.
Players with Options and Baltimore's Free Agents
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Of the four players that Baltimore holds options on for 2015—Wei-Yin Chen, Nick Hundley, Nick Markakis and Darren O'Day—only Hundley's $5 million pact for 2015 will be declined. Caleb Joseph has proven that he can hold his own behind the plate and, really, no general manager in his right mind is going to pay a backup catcher $5 million to ride the pine.
As for the team's key free agents, the Orioles already took care of one, working out a three-year, $40 million extension shortly before the ALCS got underway with J.J. Hardy. That leaves one major name left to be taken care of.
| Alexi Casilla | IF | Minor league deal | |
| Wei-Yin Chen | SP | $4,155,333 | $4.75M team option, $372K buyout |
| Nelson Cruz | OF/DH | $8,000,000 | |
| Nick Hundley | C | $4,000,000 | $5M team option, no buyout cost |
| Kelly Johnson | UTIL | $3,000,000 | |
| Nick Markakis | OF | $15,3500,000 | $17.5M team option, $2M buyout |
| Andrew Miller | RP | $1,903,175 | |
| Darren O'Day | RP | $3,200,000 | $4.25M team option, $400K buyout |
| Johan Santana | SP | Minor league deal | |
| Joe Saunders | SP/RP | $1,500,000 | |
| Delmon Young | OF/DH | $1,000,000 |
Nelson Cruz.
Cruz, who turned out to be the bargain signing of last offseason on a one-year, $8 million deal, won't be nearly as affordable this time around.
While the slugger, who led baseball with 40 home runs would like to stay in Baltimore, The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo notes that he's going to have more options than he did a year ago:
"Cruz is in good position to make some money on a three- or four-year deal. He enjoys Baltimore and hopes he can stay, but as we’ve written before, the Yankees and Rangers will make bids, as will the Mariners. Cruz, 34, looks like he’ll make a bundle somewhere.
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Let's say, conservatively, that one of those teams offers Cruz a three-year, $45 million deal. Are the Orioles ready to commit that much to a defensively challenged player that will celebrate his 35th birthday next season?
Perhaps the better question is this: Can the Orioles afford not to make that commitment?
For a team that relies on its ability to hit for power as much as Baltimore does, the answer, of course, is absolutely not. Losing Cruz would be a devastating blow—though he's not entirely irreplaceable.
A player that often gets lost in the shuffle among his higher profile teammates is Nick Markakis. A fixture in Baltimore for nearly a decade, the perennially underrated outfielder will have his option picked up, though it wouldn't come as a shock to see him work out a long-term extension with the club.
He's not your typical leadoff hitter, lacking elite speed, but he hits for average, has some pop in his bat and, perhaps most importantly, is adept and efficient at getting on base regularly. Markakis doesn't put up gaudy numbers, but he's one of the more consistent producers you'll find in the game.
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Potential Free-Agent Targets
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Unfortunately for Orioles fans, Ubaldo Jimenez will be a part of the team's rotation in 2015, joining Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris and Chris Tillman. That fifth and final spot figures to come down to a spring training battle between Kevin Gausman and Miguel Gonzalez, with top prospect Dylan Bundy waiting in the wings.
Upgrading the rotation isn't going to be on the team's agenda this winter.
What could be, however, is replacing Cruz's production in the middle of the lineup, should the slugger become too expensive for the team's liking. Additionally, finding a full-time left fielder wouldn't be such a terrible idea.
Luckily for Baltimore, there are some options available in free agency.
- Billy Butler, DH/1B: Before his postseason heroics for Kansas City, Butler was a lock to be heading to free agency, a scenario that still may materialize. While his production during the regular season was down, he averaged a .302/.372/.469 slash line, 20 home runs and 91 RBI a year from 2009-2013.
- Melky Cabrera, LF: His PED issues behind him, the 30-year-old has developed into an excellent offensive player for Toronto. He hits for average, has some pop in his bat and is a decent enough defender. Younger than some of the other options available, he will likely command $15 million a year.
- Victor Martinez, C: V-Mart's age (36) is an issue, as he'll be looking for a lucrative multi-year deal, but the impact he can have on an offense is unquestioned. He hits for average, power, gets on base consistently and can play some first base when needed. Orioles would likely have to overpay to get him out of Detroit, however.
- Colby Rasmus, OF: Nowhere near as attractive a target as Cabrera or Martinez, Rasmus, 28, has never lived up to expectations and is primarily a center fielder. But he's shown the ability to hit for power (63 HR since 2012) and could be an inexpensive platoon option in left field.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs; All payroll and salary information courtesy of Cot's Contracts. All player comparisons link to Baseball Prospectus.
Want to talk Orioles' offseason plans or anything baseball related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
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