Diagnosing Dallas Mavericks' Weak Link for 2014-15
The Dallas Mavericks will march into the 2014-15 regular season with a significantly higher ceiling than a year ago. This is no longer a fringe playoff team, but a legitimate contender for a top-four seed in the incredibly competitive Western Conference. If there is anything that could potentially derail this improved roster, it has to be its age.
Even after adding some young talent this summer, the Mavericks are the seventh-oldest team in the NBA, with an average age of 28. As a rule of thumb, the more mileage an athlete registers on his limbs, the more susceptible he becomes to reoccurring injuries.
Some are more durable than others, but the 82-game regular season marathon generally has very little mercy on veteran teams, which welcome additional recovery time with open arms.
San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich knows this better than anyone. He excels at keeping a veteran squad healthy by resting his stars on a relatively regular basis. This is a habit Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle will have to adapt to a similar extent as well.
Injuries are part of any sport, and every team has to deal with them. No player, regardless of age, is immune to a freak incident on or off the court. However, some teams are simply better equipped than others to pick up the slack when a key contributor goes down.
The Oklahoma City Thunder recently lost Kevin Durant for up to two months. Having to cope without the league MVP is a tough pill to swallow, and it will make the Thunder's road to the top seed in the conference an uphill battle. Even so, securing home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs shouldn't be an issue for Oklahoma City, as they are set up to hold down the fort until their superstar returns.
The margin of error is significantly smaller in Dallas' case. A couple of months without either Tyson Chandler or Dirk Nowitzki could swiftly revert the team right back to borderline playoff status.
The Importance of Staying Healthy
Chandler, 32, and Nowitzki, 36, have a couple of things in common. They are both over 30 years old, and will be under flexible minute restrictions this season. Chandler has a long injury history, and even though Nowitzki has been exceptionally durable in his illustrious career, he also had an injury-riddled 2012-13 campaign himself.
They are also the two most integral and irreplaceable components of the concoction that is Dallas' roster.
The Mavericks had the best offense in the league last season after the All-Star break, boasting an offensive rating of 111.1 points per 100 possessions. The offense will be even scarier with Chandler Parsons on board, but if you subtract Nowitzki out of the equation, things could go south real fast.
The best of the three most-used lineups without Nowitzki registered a 103.8 offensive rating, which would have ranked around the middle of the pack league-wide. The 7-footer is essentially the difference between Dallas having an elite or an average offense, and Parsons' presence can't make up for that gap.
Chandler won the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2012 for holding together the New York Knicks' defense. He then polished his resume with an All-Defensive First Team nomination the following year. The general consensus is that the 7'1" center declined last season, but that's only half-true.
Not even Roy Hibbert could have saved the train wreck that was the Knicks' defense in 2013-14. Chandler might have lost a little step, but he is still able to make a distinctive difference.
In 2010-11, the Mavericks' defense improved by 3.5 points per 100 possessions with Chandler on the floor. The same guy propelled the Knicks' mediocre defense to a top-five ranking upon his arrival in 2011-12.
The Mavericks ranked seventh in the league defensively during their championship run. They were an awful 22nd last year, and Chandler's presence in a zone-heavy system could have the Mavericks sniffing around the top 10 this season, assuming the perimeter defenders also show up.
Injury to any other starter would obviously hurt Dallas, but they are deep enough to survive. An extended layoff for Chandler or Nowitzki, however, could lead to disaster.
The Memphis Grizzlies lost Marc Gasol for a longer period last season. They went 40-19 with their defensive anchor in the lineup and 10-13 in his absence. In the end, they relied on a post-All-Star break surge to even make the playoffs.
Just like the Grizzlies (and most teams outside of the Thunder, Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers in the West), the Mavericks are extremely reliant on their key players staying healthy. When those players are of a respectable age, you're walking a very slippery edge.
The competition in the West is fierce. The difference between home-court advantage and the eighth seed in the conference was just five games last year. It could be even closer this season. Carlisle's job is to win basketball games, and it will be interesting to see how many potential victories he is willing to sacrifice in order to rest his older players.
The Mavericks have all the tools to fight for a top-four seed. Then again, they could very well find themselves struggling to stay afloat if father time trips up their veterans.
All statistics used are courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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