49ers vs. Rams: Complete Week 6 Preview for San Francisco
The San Francisco 49ers return to prime time as they take on their NFC West rivals, the St. Louis Rams, in Week 6 on Monday Night Football.
For the 49ers, this game will be about maintaining the momentum gained by upending both the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs over the prior two weeks. Considering the up-and-down swings San Francisco has endured this season, a crucial victory over a divisional foe is much-needed.
The Rams enter the contest boasting a 1-3 record, having been dispatched by the Philadelphia Eagles 34-28 in what turned out to be a near comeback for St. Louis.
San Francisco is listed as four-point favorites over St. Louis, according to OddsShark.com, and will look to continue its recent winning streak on the road.
As head coach Jim Harbaugh begins the preparations for the 49ers' trip east, the coaching staff has to keep in mind some of the issues that have faced this team recently. While focusing on the past is not necessarily the best approach, knowing that San Francisco needs to improve in some areas will be a major factor in this coming contest.
"#49ers Jim Harbaugh channels his inner-Belichick: "We're on to the Rams."
— Cam Inman (@CamInman) October 6, 2014"
Two areas of significant concern have plagued the 49ers over much of the 2014 season—the lack of a pass rush and poor red-zone efficiency.
On the positive side of things, the Rams defense has been permeable this year. Their ground defense has been exceptionally bad. This fits right in with what San Francisco does best—running the ball with authority.
But so many other variables will play into this game.
Let's dive deeper into this divisional matchup and take a look at the various factors and topics that will give us a better background on what to expect from the 49ers in Week 6.
49ers' Week 5 Recap
1 of 5
Perhaps the biggest news emanating out of the Kansas City Chiefs' visit to San Francisco was the return of quarterback Alex Smith and the competition between he and the man who replaced him under center, Colin Kaepernick.
The comparison could not go unnoticed. Smith finished the day with 16 completions on 30 attempts—good for 158 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Kaepernick got the best of Smith, going 14-of-26 and 201 yards with a touchdown.
More importantly, San Francisco's defense limited Smith to just 58 second-half passing yards during the game, per Taylor Price of 49ers.com.
"#49ers defense held Alex Smith to 58 second-half passing yards in Week 5 victory. READ: http://t.co/nsRBqQsiSa pic.twitter.com/XOvitlYrDV
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 6, 2014"
“It’s tough because you’re competitive and you want to win the game, but all those guys I played a long time with,” Smith said, via Tyler Emerick of 49ers.com. “It was different competing against them today, but at the end of the day I have a lot of history with some of those guys.”
While the defense did its best to contain Smith and the passing game, focusing on shutting down the run was also a paramount factor. San Francisco continued its streak of holding rushers below the 100-yard mark, having limited No. 1 back Jamaal Charles to 80 yards on 15 attempts.
The 49ers have given up just one 100-plus-yard rusher on the season.
But a worrisome concern continues to be the lack of a 49ers pass rush. San Francisco failed to get to Smith frequently enough during the game.
The defense registered just one quarterback hit and zero sacks over four quarters—proving that the lack of pressure remains a problem.
It wasn't the only issue the 49ers faced over the course of the game. Kicker Phil Dawson registered 15 of the 49ers' 22 points during the contest. Five field goals revealed ongoing struggles in the red zone.
Five weeks into the season, San Francisco has logged a touchdown in just 44.1 percent of its red-zone appearances, per Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com—good for 25th in the NFL.
The 49ers' lone touchdown in the contest was a nine-yard Stevie Johnson touchdown reception in the second quarter.
"VIDEO: #49ers' Stevie Johnson: 'We shouldn't be struggling in red zone' http://t.co/zvvzdlAn4b #49ersTalk #NFL pic.twitter.com/ULvFrfUw7h
— Comcast SportsNet (@CSNAuthentic) October 6, 2014"
Perhaps some of this can be attributed to the fact that tight end Vernon Davis missed the game with a back injury. A big red-zone target, Davis' absence certainly hindered the 49ers' efforts. But it can't explain the entirety of San Francisco's touchdown woes.
Still, the 49ers pulled off a crucial home victory against a team that had decisively defeated the New England Patriots the week prior.
Running back Frank Gore crested the 100-yard plateau once again, and it's familiar territory when Gore reaches that peak.
Oh, and we can't forget about that fake punt—the details of which are described further by the Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com).
News and Notes
2 of 5
San Francisco is enjoying its recent wave of momentum after having knocked off Kansas City. Now, the 49ers will face off against a Rams team that has endured two back-to-back heartbreaking losses in Weeks 3 and 5 respectively.
Still, there is plenty of room for improvement within the 49ers' organization. Stories still surround the future of Jim Harbaugh beyond 2014. Concerns regarding the lack of pass-rushing prowess and red-zone production also mask San Francisco's recent success.
What other news and notes should draw our attention?
Jed York on Harbaugh
Speculation continues to surround the question whether Harbaugh will return as head coach beyond this year. Fox Sports' Jay Glazer stated prior to Sunday's game that there was no possible way Harbaugh returns to the 49ers next year, regardless of what happens this season.
But 49ers CEO Jed York denied that was the case. York stated a day later on The Rich Eisen Show (h/t Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area) that the comments were "categorically not true."
York followed up his statements by saying:
"Jim competes at anything and everything he does. That sometimes rubs people the wrong way. But he has an amazing way to be able to pull people together and find a way to win tough football games, put himself in a position to have his team have the most success. ... In terms of sustainability, every coach will move on at some point, and I don’t think Jim is at that point. We’ve had a great relationship here. We’ve had three pretty successful seasons so far.
"
"York: Report Harbaugh won't return to #49ers 'categorically not true' (via @MaioccoCSN) http://t.co/Rr1Ist0pbm #NFL pic.twitter.com/1feWHgfiJV
— Comcast SportsNet (@CSNAuthentic) October 6, 2014"
Many of the 49ers players have come to Harbaugh's defense. We can now add York to that list.
Phil Dawson Earns NFC Special Teams Player of the Week
While fans probably do not want kicker Phil Dawson to be the primary threat of the 49ers offense, at least they can take comfort in knowing he was as good as ever in Week 5.
As stated previously, Dawson converted all five field-goal attempts on Sunday—15 of San Francisco's 22 points.
Thus, we should not be too surprised that Dawson earned the accolade of being named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week.
"Congratulations #49ers K @phil_dawson_4 on being named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week! pic.twitter.com/jVH9xvcpxf
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 8, 2014"
Dawson had some preseason kicking struggles at Levi's Stadium. Those worries have seemingly all but disappeared.
Aaron Lynch Continues to Develop
Rookie linebacker Aaron Lynch has certainly climbed the roster ladder since being taken by the 49ers in Round 5 of the 2014 NFL draft.
After a strong preseason, Lynch found himself below second-year pro Corey Lemonier on San Francisco's depth chart. But with Lemonier struggling in pass-rushing duties and with the 49ers straining to get more pressure, Lynch suddenly found himself with an opportunity.
Lynch has since surpassed Lemonier on pass-rushing downs. The results appear to be working.
The rookie has notched eight hits on quarterbacks and 14 pressures, both second most on the team behind defensive end Justin Smith, per Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News.
"49ers' rookie Aaron Lynch growing into important cog http://t.co/py6vNfA56r @CamInman pic.twitter.com/TAW9N7bq9z
— Mercury News (@mercnews) October 8, 2014"
Having a negative collegiate reputation certainly thwarted his draft stock. But Lynch is continuously proving he has what it takes to succeed at the NFL level.
He credits many of the 49ers' veterans for this adjustment.
“You watch how all these guys prepare and you have no choice to be a professional yourself,” Lynch said, via Eric Branch of SFGate.com. “You just take it in from all the older guys. It’s just like a little brother looks up to a big brother.”
As Aldon Smith's suspension continues, the 49ers continue to desperately look for pass-rushing production.
Lynch is giving them a worthwhile option.
Upgrading Special Teams
San Francisco announced on Wednesday that it had waived special teams ace Kassim Osgood and signed Raymond "Bubba" Ventrone to take his place, per Inman (h/t Igor Mello of CBS Sports).
While Osgood's contributions on special teams are noteworthy, the fact remained that the 49ers needed to get better in this area. In Week 4, San Francisco gave up an 82-yard punt returned for a touchdown by Eagles return man Darren Sproles.
Kansas City's De'Anthony Thomas notched a 28-yard return in Week 5.
It is an area that obviously needs improvement, so we'll have to watch and see if the transaction pays dividends.
Clean Game
Anyone who has watched the 49ers could tell you that they have been plagued by penalties throughout much of 2014. In fact, one could argue that these penalties were the primary reason behind San Francisco's two losses on the year.
But in Week 5, San Francisco cleaned this up to a notable point. In total, the 49ers were penalized just twice for a net of 10 yards.
Let's hope this trend continues.
Red-Zone Production
Or lack thereof.
The inability of the 49ers to convert red-zone appearances into touchdowns has been a glaring issue facing the team throughout 2014.
As stated previously, San Francisco has just a 44.1 percent touchdown rate in the red zone. Clearly, something is wrong here.
“We’re definitely not coming away with enough touchdowns,” Joe Staley said, via Doug Williams of NBC Bay Area. “It’s definitely something we will improve on. We have to.”
"One of the (few) things that continue to plague the #49ers under Harbaugh though is red zone offense. Too content to take 3.
— Al Sacco (@AlSacco49) October 5, 2014"
Perhaps the play-calling is to blame. Perhaps there has been poor execution. It's possible that injuries to players like tight end Vernon Davis have hindered the available options.
But one would think that this upgraded San Francisco offense would be able to produce more in this area.
This has yet to happen.
Delays in NaVorro Bowman's Return?
The 49ers are getting by adequately enough without All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman. But that doesn't mean they don't miss his presence.
Bowman was initially projected to come back somewhere around the halfway point of the season. His return would have coincided with the end of Aldon Smith's nine-game suspension.
As of now, signs are pointing to Smith returning before Bowman.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio hinted at this during an appearance on the Murph and Mac Show on San Francisco's KNBR 680 (h/t Maiocco):
"[Bowman] still has to be out two more games, at least, then he’ll be out several after that. But he’s doing well. He’s had no roadblocks in his rehab. Everything’s gone smooth. He’s ahead of where he should be and we’re looking forward to his return at some point. I think at some point he’ll eventually play [this season]. But right now it’s still later than sooner ... He’s going to need a couple weeks of practice to get his legs under him and feel comfortable playing on his leg.
"
"Aldon Smith expected to return to #49ers before NaVorro Bowman (via @MaioccoCSN) http://t.co/6CuXSItyvT #NFL pic.twitter.com/OATpbYN3cP
— Comcast SportsNet (@CSNAuthentic) October 7, 2014"
In the meantime, we should continue to see linebacker Michael Wilhoite hold down Bowman's spot in the 49ers defense.
Injury Report
3 of 5
Injuries
Tramaine Brock, CB: Questionable (toe)
Marcus Martin, OL: Questionable (knee)
Vernon Davis, TE: Questionable (back)
Anthony Davis, RT: Questionable (knee/ankle)
All injury statuses courtesy of CBS Sports and Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Right tackle Anthony Davis and cornerback Tramaine Brock have been sidelined for almost the entire duration of the 2014 season.
Davis has appeared just once this season—Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles. While his return was much anticipated, Davis subsequently sprained his MCL, adding to the injury already suffered to his ankle.
Whether he plays against St. Louis on Monday remains in doubt, at least according to Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee.
"#49ers OT Anthony Davis says he has a sprained MCL. He's not sure if he will play this week vs. the #Rams.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) October 8, 2014"
Jonathan Martin will continue to step in as Davis' backup if the latter misses Week 6.
Like Davis, Brock has been mostly absent from San Francisco's active roster after a toe injury sidelined him in Week 1.
Brock entered 2014 as the 49ers' No. 1 cornerback. His absence was widely thought to be a detrimental blow to San Francisco's secondary. Fortunately, backup corner Perrish Cox has stepped into the role, performing admirably in the process.
"Cox has won himself a job. We have a true CB controversy when Tramaine Brock returns. #49ers #Chiefs
— Christian Gin (@Christian_Gin) October 5, 2014"
With Cox playing so well, the 49ers will likely not feel rushed to get Brock back into the mix. This is the conclusion that Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area makes. He feels as if San Francisco will wait until after its Week 8 bye to get Brock on the field.
"With bye coming after Oct. 19 game at Denver, it’s good bet 49ers will wait until after that for CB Tramaine Brock’s return from turf toe.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoCSN) October 9, 2014"
A back injury in Week 4 wound up costing tight end Vernon Davis an appearance the subsequent week.
Davis missed practice prior to the matchup versus Kansas City but hinted via the San Francisco Chronicle (h/t Josh Alper of NBC Sports) that he would be fine.
The veteran tight end may still wind up being a game-time decision in Week 6, but it appears as if Davis would be the likeliest of injured 49ers to suit up on Monday.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
4 of 5
St. Louis can't stop the running game. Over four games, the Rams have given up a total of 610 yards on the ground—an average of 152.5 yards per contest.
San Francisco loves to run the ball. Does this mean we'll see heavy doses of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde throughout the game?
Almost certainly.
But there are plenty of other factors that will play into this matchup.
Let's have a look.
Chris Culliver/Perrish Cox vs. Brian Quick
Rams wideout Brian Quick is solidifying himself as a bona fide target for quarterback Austin Davis in 2014. Quick leads St. Louis' receivers with 21 receptions for 322 yards and three touchdowns.
"Four games into his third season, Rams WR Brian Quick now has career season highs in receptions (21), yards (322) and touchdowns (3).
— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) October 5, 2014"
The job of covering him will likely fall upon San Francisco's top corners, Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox.
Culliver has had some issues with coverage, but Cox is emerging as a solid cover corner. The latter already has three interceptions and 10 passes defended—all career highs.
Aaron Lynch vs. Jake Long/O-line
After having taken over the primary pass-rushing duties from Corey Lemonier, rookie linebacker Aaron Lynch will look to assert himself against left tackle Jake Long and the Rams' offensive line in Week 6.
Lynch's accolades and ascension have already been sung in this slideshow. Given the prowess that Davis has shown in recent weeks and the threat of players like Quick, rushing the passer will be another paramount factor in a prospective 49ers victory.
Davis has been sacked 10 times over four games up to this point. While it will largely be up to Justin Smith to wreak havoc along the Rams' O-line on Monday, look for Lynch to be a primary benefactor as he seeks to increase his quarterback pressures.
Anquan Boldin vs. E.J. Gaines/Janoris Jenkins
The Rams have given up the fewest passing yards in the league (769). Granted, their Week 4 bye plays into this equation, but considering they have faced potent offenses like those of the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, the number has to be recognized.
Still, that doesn't mean San Francisco should avoid attacking St. Louis' defense through the air.
Here is where 34-year-old veteran Anquan Boldin could make a huge difference.
He and Michael Crabtree will square off against Rams cornerbacks E.J. Gaines and Janoris Jenkins. Gaines, a rookie, has had the better season of the two. It will be interesting to see how St. Louis' defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams, matches his corners against the 49ers' top two receivers.
But here is where Boldin could have a huge night.
Boldin leads all active receivers with nine touchdowns on Monday Night Football, per Niners Nation. Matching up against Gaines (5'10" and 190 lbs) should play right into the tough, physical attributes the veteran possesses.
"Anquan Boldin leads active receivers in MNF TDs with 9. He has scored in his last 4 MNF games. Look for more this Monday!
— Niners Nation (@NinersNation) October 9, 2014"
With Crabtree still nursing a slight foot injury, Boldin could wind up being a major factor in Monday's game.
Joe Staley vs. Robert Quinn
Defensive end Robert Quinn looks to punish the 49ers' O-line in Week 6. The 2013 All-Pro selection is coming off a season where he totaled 50 tackles, seven forced fumbles and 19 sacks. He is a beast who can wreak havoc along opposing O-lines.
But not if Joe Staley has anything to say about it.
Staley will certainly have his hands full while blocking Quinn—the matchup of which is further described by Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com.
Yet if there is any consolation, it should be noted that Quinn has not registered a sack on the young season.
In fact, St. Louis as a whole has just one sack in four games.
And you thought the 49ers pass rush was bad.
49ers Offense vs. the Red Zone
Notice a trend here?
As stated multiple times, San Francisco needs to do a much better job converting those red-zone appearances into touchdowns.
We love Phil Dawson, but...
A 44.1 percent conversion rate in the red zone is not very good. However the 49ers elect to redress this—well-dialed screens, better-executed fades, etc.—will be up to offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Jim Harbaugh and the offensive players themselves.
Where this could matter would be in the second half, notably in the fourth quarter.
San Francisco has yet to register a fourth-quarter touchdown in 2014. Last week against the Eagles, the Rams posted 21 unanswered points—14 in the fourth.
Yes, Philadelphia's defense is not that of San Francisco's, but we can see where a late-game implosion could possibly repeat itself for the 49ers if the red-zone woes continue.
In short, keep the foot on the gas pedal.
49ers' X-Factor of the Week: RB Frank Gore
We've said it before, so let's say it again—St. Louis can't stop the run, and San Francisco loves to move the ball on the ground.
Letting Gore do his thing will be the name of the game here.
Gore has topped the 100-yards-rushing mark in each of the 49ers' two consecutive victories—119 and 107 yards respectively. The 49ers are 13-0 during the Harbaugh era when Gore reaches this mark, per Taylor Price of 49ers.com.
On top of that, Gore has notched a touchdown in each of his last four meetings with the Rams.
"#49ers RB Frank Gore has TDs in his last four meetings vs. Rams. Look for that to continue on #MNF
— Ryan Sakamoto (@SakamotoRyan) October 7, 2014"
He'll have a chance to stack upon that statistic during this prime-time matchup.
Prediction
5 of 5
St. Louis might be reeling after suffering back-to-back, hard-to-swallow losses in Weeks 3 and 5 respectively.
But this road game for the 49ers does not necessarily mean they will simply be able to steamroll a subpar opponent.
Jeff Fisher knows a thing or two about upsetting San Francisco. Remember the 2012 season?
While the talent may not be there for the Rams compared to that year, make no mistake that Fisher will desperately try to repeat that outcome in Week 6.
Quarterback Austin Davis might be able to hook up with wideouts like Brian Quinn to a good effect. The two will have to contribute. Running back Zac Stacy will likely be bottled up by the 49ers' resurgent run-stopping defense.
Because of Stacy likely being a non-factor, St. Louis' passing game will have to be the big difference-maker for the Rams offense. This unit might have some success if the 49ers continue to struggle with rushing the passer.
But if front-seven members like Justin Smith and Aaron Lynch have anything to say about it, they'll be able to apply some added pressure upon Davis—hopefully enough to offset any exposure to San Francisco's secondary.
If this can happen, St. Louis' offense may be in for a rough week.
Still, the key to the game will be the production generated on the ground from running backs Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde.
As we know, the Rams have tremendous difficulty stopping the run. This plays perfectly into the hands of the 49ers.
"Rams Could Be Ruined by Their Run Defense in 2014 (via @SeanGTomlinson) http://t.co/ilyubeGGUt
— Tyson Langland (@tglangland) September 29, 2014"
"Jeff Fisher said Frank Gore is the "nerve center" of the #49ers offense and believes it "revolves around him." #RAms
— Christian Gin (@Christian_Gin) October 9, 2014"
The added bonus of running the ball frequently will play directly into a San Francisco domination of the clock. While Davis and the Rams offense have some weapons with which to work, controlling the time-of-possession battle easily works into the 49ers' favor.
The return of Vernon Davis might also alleviate some of San Francisco's red-zone woes. A worthy red-zone target, Davis presents a difficult challenge to St. Louis' lackluster defense. Perhaps this is the moment where the 49ers are able to capitalize on chances within the Rams' 20-yard line.
And we can't forget the turnovers.
San Francisco has committed just one turnover since its disastrous performance against the Chicago Bears in Week 2. St. Louis has committed six since that same point in the year. Additionally, the 49ers have forced 10 turnovers on the season compared to the Rams' six.
While there may be some positive moments for St. Louis in this one, the overall comparison between these two teams reveals a large separation.
The 49ers have the tools to win this game in a decisive manner. The Rams do not.
Running the ball, controlling the clock and limiting St. Louis' chances will give San Francisco a clear edge in Week 6. It's hard to predict anything else.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Rams 17
All statistics and records courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
