5 Reasons Why the Orlando Magic Could Outperform Low Expectations in 2014-15
Coming off a forgettable season that joined the rebuilding—and low—ranks of the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks, even modest improvement would be a welcome sign for this season's Orlando Magic.
Expectations are particularly low after the organization lost veteran Jameer Nelson (free agency) and leading scorer Arron Afflalo (trade) this summer. Orlando's transformation means an ever younger roster now inherits an increased workload—paving the way for risk and reward alike.
Rookies Aaron Gordon (taken No. 4 overall) and Elfrid Payton (taken at No. 10) need the experience, to say nothing of still-developing talent like Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic and Maurice Harkless.
Unfortunately, the early going for these pups won't be pretty. As the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins put it in September, "No one within the organization is predicting an improbable playoff run—not after the team's 20-62 performance in 2012-13 and its 23-59 record last season."
Bleacher Report's Kurt Jonke expects just 33 wins, and that's assuming fairly significant progress from a season ago.
Reasons for pessimism abound.
So in the spirit of contrarianism, here are five reasons to keep hoping.
The Rookie Class
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Yes, they'll be raw.
But Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton didn't catch the Orlando Magic's attention by accident. Both prospects have set themselves apart by competing aggressively on the defensive end, embodying the unsung virtues that general manager Rob Hennigan and head coach Jacque Vaughn are looking to emphasize.
These acquisitions were as much about building a culture as infusing talent.
Gordon will share minutes with forwards Maurice Harkless and Tobias Harris, contributing to a young—and long—rotation that could make some strides this season. This is an athletic bunch that's only beginning to discover its offensive potential. The dividends won't be immediate, but there's every possibility at least one of these guys steps up and becomes a go-to scorer.
Meanwhile, Payton should have plenty of opportunities early on in light of Victor Oladipo's sprained MCL.
"I would expect to be thrown in the fire right away anyway without the injuries, but I'm just looking forward to it," Payton recently told reporters. "It's always exciting to go out there and play basketball and finally get to go against somebody other than my teammates. It'll be fun."
The 20-year-old is the kind of floor general who can push tempo and make the most of Orlando's collection of physical tools.
If he remains poised and soaks up Vaughn's career worth of point guard smarts, perhaps Orlando can sneak a few extra wins this season.
Jelling
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With Jacque Vaughn entering his third season as head coach, the Orlando Magic could very well begin showing signs of stability, chemistry and internal development.
The learning curve won't go away overnight, but this young team's hard work will start paying off eventually.
"We are entering Year 3 now. We have spent the last couple of years turning over the roster and trying to create a culture that serves as a foundation that we want to be about," general manager Rob Hennigan recently told the media. "Our hope is that this year we start to branch out and create an on-court identity that can create momentum for us.
"It starts with playing smart basketball, trying to be efficient, trying to be physical at all positions and all areas of the floor, being unselfish and starting with defense. We want to be a defensive-minded team, and we hope over time our defense can be our anchor for us."
Rebuilding isn't just a matter of finding talent. It's also a matter of finding—and internalizing—corporate knowledge, developing a collective rhythm and synergy.
It's a process that takes time, but—by now—Vaughn and Co. have had some time. They've had a couple of summers to find their way—a couple of seasons to learn on the job.
As that identity continues to sink in, results will follow.
A Veteran on a Mission
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Ben Gordon's successful five-year stint with the Chicago Bulls feels like ancient history by now.
The 10-year veteran only saw action in 19 games last season with the Charlotte Bobcats, averaging an unimpressive 5.2 points in just 14.7 minutes per game. And that came after four uninspiring—but relatively productive—campaigns with the Detroit Pistons and those Bobcats.
Still, Gordon is only 31. There's no reason to believe he's already washed up—no reason to expect the worst from any chance he might have to resurrect his career with the Orlando Magic.
"I definitely look at this [as an] opportunity to re-establish myself and definitely help with the younger group of guys and try to just share what I can with them on how to win," Gordon told reporters in September.
Gordon added that his shooting form "never really went anywhere," saying, "It's just a matter of being consistent, making sure your touch is always right and just trying to stay in a good rhythm."
A regular dose of playing time would almost certainly help that rhythm, and one can imagine Gordon becoming something of a stabilizing force off the bench. At his best, he was an electric sixth man who could get his shot off from virtually anywhere.
Gordon's experience and leadership could also compensate for Jameer Nelson's absence from the backcourt, assuring the Magic another locker-room voice worth listening to.
Maybe this is just the final, anticlimactic stop of a career that once seemed so promising.
Orlando is betting otherwise.
Recovery
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Second-year guard Victor Oladipo became the Orlando Magic's second key piece to go down with a sprained MCL, suffering the injury during a team scrimmage in October.
Free-agent acquisition Channing Frye also sprained his MCL during a collision with Ben Gordon during training camp.
Frye is out indefinitely, and there's not yet a timetable for Oladipo's return, according to SI.com.
So Orlando could get out to an especially slow start this season, but Frye and Oladipo's return could eventually turn some of that momentum around.
Oladipo figures prominently into Orlando's plans after finishing second in last season's Rookie of the Year voting. The 22-year-old combo guard averaged 13.8 points, 4.1 assists and 4.1 rebounds in just 31.1 minutes per game a season ago.
With increased responsibility, those numbers could grow.
Meanwhile, the organization invested four years and $32 million in Frye, expecting his stretch-4 sensibilities to give the offense an added dimension. The eight-year veteran tallied 11.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game last season, converting on 37 percent of his field-goal attempts.
Like teammates Ben Gordon, Luke Ridnour and Willie Green, Frye will also add much-needed veteran leadership on a roster that is otherwise populated by the under-25 demographic.
A healthy lineup won't necessarily translate into an epic post-All-Star break run, but there's reason to believe this club could improve as the season progresses. At full strength, this rotation has some intriguing—and largely underrated—weapons.
Expect the Unexpected
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Center Nikola Vucevic came to the Orlando Magic in the 2012 trade that sent franchise cornerstone Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers.
After a modest rookie season with the Philadelphia 76ers in which he averaged just 5.5 points and 4.7 rebounds in 15.9 minutes per game, most viewed Vucevic as a minor component of a deal that failed to bring any elite talent back to Orlando.
In the two seasons since, however, the 23-year-old has twice averaged a double-double and started in all of his 134 games with the Magic.
The emergence has been—to put it mildly—unexpected.
These things happen in the NBA, especially among young players who discover their first taste of consistent opportunity and playing time. With a similar breakout from someone like Maurice Harkless—or one of the incoming rookies—this team would suddenly seem halfway formidable.
Indeed, this team could follow in the footsteps of last season's surprise success story: the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns won 48 games and narrowly missed the playoffs last season, surpassing expectations that were almost universally pessimistic. Sometimes, well-coached, well-constructed operations turn the corner like that, overachieving with the help of hard work and dogged determination.
Maybe it's intangible. Maybe it's what happens when a few light bulbs go off.
Perhaps it's just what happens when a proud young roster decides it's better than anyone suspects.
It will take a perfect storm of preparation and good fortune for the Magic to replicate a Suns-like turnaround, but such a rapid evolution isn't unprecedented.
And in this case, it isn't impossible.
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