San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 5 Keys to the 2014 NLCS
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before—the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants are going to the National League Championship Series.
While the American League features a throwback matchup of 1980s powerhouses (the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals), the NL showcase is a rematch of 2012, when the Giants edged St. Louis in a thrilling seven-game series.
Not much has changed in two years—the Giants are still led by catching prodigy Buster Posey, and the Cardinals are paced by right-hander Adam Wainwright. But will the result of this year’s NLCS be any different? To help us decide, here are five keys to the series.
Home-Field Advantage
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If you know anything about the Cardinals, it’s that they’re one of the best home teams in baseball. In fact, only the recently eliminated Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim had a better record at home this year.
Overall, the Cardinals, who will host the Giants in Game 1 Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, are 17-8 at Busch Stadium in their last four postseasons. The Giants are only 11-7 in home playoff games since 2010, but they were one of three NL teams with a winning record on the road this season (the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals were the others).
Something has to give.
Bullpens
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We already know these teams have dominant pitching staffs. St. Louis and San Francisco actually finished with the same regular-season ERA (3.50). But in the postseason, when the late innings are more important than ever, a great bullpen can be the difference between playing in the World Series or watching it on TV.
So how do these two bullpens stack up? The Cardinals won their three games against the Dodgers by a combined four runs, so clearly the St. Louis pen can hold a lead. In Game 2 of the National League Division Series, the Giants were just as sharp, holding the Nationals offense scoreless from the fourth inning on in what turned out to be the longest playoff game ever played.
The most talented reliever in the series could be Cards closer Trevor Rosenthal. According to FanGraphs, his average fastball traveled an astounding 96.8 mph during the regular season.
Power
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In the playoffs, one swing can win it all. This held true in the division series as Brandon Belt and Matt Adams both guided their teams to victory with late-inning home runs. Though neither squad plays much small ball (St. Louis and San Francisco combined for two steals in the NLDS), I wouldn’t expect a home run derby to break out in the NLCS.
In the regular season, the Giants finished in the middle of the pack in home runs (132 HR, 17th in MLB) while the Cardinals were 29th out of 30 teams, outslugging only the light-hitting Kansas City Royals. St. Louis was dead last with 22 home runs from the seventh inning on. The Giants weren’t much better, finishing the 2014 campaign with 26 late-inning jacks, third-fewest in MLB.
Four players competing in the NLCS belted 20 or more homers during the regular season: Buster Posey (22), Jhonny Peralta (21), Matt Holliday (20) and Hunter Pence (20). Out of those four, only Holliday has gone deep this postseason.
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Fatigue
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It’s October. If you include spring training, these teams have been going at it for eight months now. We saw Clayton Kershaw hit a wall in the division series, and it’s only a matter of time until the rest of this year’s playoff participants fall victim to the wear and tear of playing 162 regular-season games on top of a full postseason slate.
The Giants should be especially worried about fatigue. They needed to win the Wild Card Game in Pittsburgh just to make it to the division series. To make matters worse, San Francisco’s likely Game 1 starter, Madison Bumgarner, has thrown 106.1 innings since the All-Star break. The Cardinals’ top starter, Adam Wainwright, has tossed just 93.1 frames in that same span.
Depth
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Offensively, neither team has much depth, though the Cardinals have an intriguing bench option in outfielder Peter Bourjos. He stole 22 bases for the Angels in 2011 and could be an asset as a pinch runner late in games. His strong glove work in center field also makes him a solid defensive replacement.
None of the Giants’ offensive reserves made much of an impact in the division series. Joaquin Arias, Gary Brown, Matt Duffy, Juan Perez and Andrew Susac were a combined 0-for-16 at the plate.
With that said, San Francisco’s pitching depth could be its secret weapon. Hybrid starter/reliever Yusmeiro Petit was lights out in the NLDS (one hit, no earned runs in six innings), while Tim Lincecum could be a valuable safety net for the Giants should something happen to Bumgarner, Tim Hudson, Jake Peavy or Ryan Vogelsong.
Prediction: Cardinals in 7
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