Predicting Where Each Notable Red Sox Free Agent Will End Up in 2015
The Boston Red Sox are likely to face a turbulent offseason once the MLB playoffs end.
They need to rebuild their pitching staff. They need to solidify their bullpen. They need to solve their outfield logjam, and they may need to find a new body to man third base.
The Red Sox already dramatically altered the core of their team in July, trading away the likes of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, Andrew Miller, Stephen Drew and Felix Doubront.
Ben Cherington and Co. saw no need to wait until the offseason to rip this underperforming team’s nucleus apart, and as a result, the Red Sox have relatively few soon-to-be free agents still on the roster.
However, there are still a few notable names who will hit the open market in the coming weeks. And when you open up the pool to notable free agents who played for the Red Sox at one point in 2014, it becomes even more clear just how different the 2015 iteration of the Sox figures to be.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some early predictions for where former and current Red Sox could sign for 2015 and beyond, and see if the Sox are in line for any possible reunions with former Boston favorites.
Burke Badenhop, RHP
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Burke Badenhop served as something of an unsung hero in what was a miserable year for the Red Sox. An unheralded trade with the Milwaukee Brewers brought Badenhop to Boston during the 2013 offseason, and while the transaction didn't garner much attention, it proved to be a savvy pickup by Ben Cherington.
The 31-year-old Badenhop threw 70.2 innings for the Red Sox, posting a 2.29 ERA, 3.08 FIP and allowing just one home run all year. According to FanGraphs, he generated ground balls at a 61.0 percent clip, which is well above league average and is the highest mark of his career.
Badenhop doesn't miss enough bats to profile as a closer or even an elite setup man, but he proved his worth by inducing 14 double plays and limiting free passes.
He's an ideal fit as the third or fourth weapon coming out of a bullpen, and he's proven his durability by pitching more than 60 innings in each of the past six seasons.
Just about every team could use a pitcher like Badenhop in the bullpen, so competition for the right-hander figures to be fairly fierce.
The Red Sox could certainly make a play to keep him, but given their younger internal options and their hesitancy to hand out significant deals to relievers, odds are a needier team ponies up more money for the right-hander.
Early Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Stephen Drew, SS
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Stephen Drew is on the short list of players who did the most damage to their value in a walk year in 2014. Thanks to the qualifying offer tied to him last offseason, Drew didn't sign with a team or play in the majors this season until June.
Whether the time off truly impacted his performance or he simply had a down year, he likely played himself out of a significant contract for 2015.
In exactly 300 plate appearances for the Red Sox and New York Yankees, Drew hit just .162/.237/.399 with seven homers and one steal. Even with his solid defense, he was worth -1.1 fWAR, according to FanGraphs, and he posted a new career-high strikeout rate of an even 25 percent.
At this point, Drew is a borderline starting option for a team that can either punt offense from shortstop or needs to take a gamble on a low-cost option with moderate upside.
He'd be most suited for a team with a right-handed complement at shortstop, as Drew has hit .228/.285/.378 against left-handed pitchers in his career.
Odds are Drew signs a one-year deal somewhere in the hopes of reestablishing his value and signing a multiyear deal for 2016 and beyond.
It's certainly tough to see him returning to the Red Sox, given the presence of Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt and Deven Marrero.
Early Prediction: New York Mets
Jonny Gomes, LF
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Jonny Gomes served as one of the faces of the Red Sox's 2013 championship team. His knack for delivering big hits, ability to crush left-handed pitching and, to put them kindly, memorable catches in the outfield endeared him to the Boston fanbase, and it was easy to see why.
But 2014 was not kind to the 33-year-old, and Gomes may have played his way out of a guaranteed MLB contract for 2015.
Gomes hit just .234/.327/.330 in 321 plate appearances, seeing a massive drop in power from 2013 and hitting a horrendous .165/.248/.262 against right-handed pitching.
Gomes still hit .276/.373/.371 against left-handed pitching in 2014, so if a team can live with his defense or can let him DH, he's a reasonable short-side platoon option who will certainly be available on the cheap.
It's not crazy to think he'll have to compete for a job in spring training, though, as he's a very one-dimensional player at this point.
Given Boston's collection of outfield talent, there's no reason for a Gomes reunion, but Gomes could be attractive to low-payroll teams looking for some pop.
Early Prediction: Kansas City Royals
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Jon Lester, LHP
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Jon Lester is due for quite the payday this offseason. The 30-year-old had the second-best season of his career, by fWAR, posting a whopping 6.1 wins above replacement level. He threw 219.2 innings, recorded a 2.46 ERA and posted his highest strikeout rate since 2010.
Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan mentions Cole Hamel’s six-year, $144 million deal as an indicator of what Lester could get on the open market, and with no draft pick attached to his name, he’ll be heavily sought-after this offseason.
The Red Sox, of course, will be in the mix, if for no other reason than to save public face by re-negotiating with their former homegrown ace.
But the conspiracy theorists who state that trading Lester for Yoenis Cespedes was part of a master plan that would see Lester re-sign with the Sox in the offseason are too optimistic.
The harsh reality is that re-signing Lester to a megadeal would fly in the face of the new philosophy the Red Sox preach, and Boston likely squandered any chance of getting Lester to accept a major hometown discount by trading him in July.
The Red Sox will be in the hunt for Lester, to be sure, but it would be unsurprising to see another team outbid them.
Early Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Andrew Miller, LHP
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It’s easy to lose sight of just how dominant Andrew Miller was for the Red Sox once he moved to the bullpen. He never served as a closer, was injured during Boston's 2013 postseason run and was traded halfway through 2014, making it difficult for casual fans to witness his brilliance.
But despite Miller's occasional loss of command, he was nearly unhittable for the better part of three seasons. He posted astronomical strikeout numbers, didn't give up many home runs and was absolute death on left-handed hitters.
That success is likely to make Miller one of the most sought-after free-agent relievers on the market this offseason, even in a market saturated with ex-closers.
Miller has the ability to neutralize left-handed hitters like few other players in the game, and he could be in line for a significant multiyear contract.
The Red Sox would love him back, of course, but they're generally not in the business of allocating substantial financial resources to relievers, and rightfully so.
This is likely Miller's one big chance at a payday, and he could just go to the highest bidder.
Early Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
David Ross, C
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When David Ross came to the Red Sox before the 2013 season, he had a reputation as one of the best backup backstops in the game.
Ross hit .256/.321/.449 for the Braves in 2012, and he served as the perfect right-handed-hitting complement to Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
Ross has done a lot of good things during his time with the Red Sox. He's proven to be a good defender, is a well-respected leader in the clubhouse and knows how to call a game. He's been fairly inept offensively, however, and his struggles reached new depths in 2014.
In 171 plate appearances last season, Ross hit just .184/.260/.368. He hit for a bit more power than he did in 2013, but he looked very much like a player on his last legs.
Even Ross seemed to acknowledge as much, as John Tomase of the Boston Herald noted, as Ross asked to play in the Red Sox's final game of the season in case his MLB career was coming to an end.
While Ross is somewhat valuable to the Red Sox because of his knowledge of the staff and his role as mentor to Christian Vazquez, it's tough to see another team signing the 37-year-old to a guaranteed deal this offseason.
For that reason, the bet here is that Ross ends up back with the Red Sox to start 2015, but he may not survive the season if he doesn't improve at the plate.
Early Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Koji Uehara, RHP
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Koji Uehara was cruising along with another dominant season in 2014 until mid-August.
In fact, from April until August 15, the right-hander had a 1.27 ERA, had allowed an opposing batting line of .182/.209/.298 and looked poised to finish the season strong and collect another solid contract for 2015.
But Uehara hit the wall, and he hit the wall hard, allowing 10 earned runs over his final 7.2 innings and facing a removal from the closer role near the season's end.
Perhaps the significant workload the 39-year-old shouldered in 2013 finally caught up to him, as Uehara's pitches looked flat, and he became quite homer-prone in his last nine games.
With that performance in mind, it's obvious the Red Sox missed an opportunity by not trading Uehara at the deadline. While they jettisoned off every other notable free agent-to-be on their roster near the July 31 deadline, they retained Uehara for reasons that aren't entirely clear.
Perhaps they truly never received an offer they thought was fair for their closer, but it seems like some return would still have been better than none.
Boston's decision to keep Uehara at the deadline and John Farrell's comments about the organization wanting to retain Uehara for 2015, as reported by the Boston Herald's Scott Lauber, make it seem like the Sox will make a solid effort to re-sign their closer this offseason.
His late-season struggles could make him a little more affordable, though the Sox will likely have to be judicious in how they use him moving forward.
Early Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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