5 Bold Predictions for the 49ers' Week 5 Matchup with the Chiefs
The San Francisco 49ers will aim to build on their dramatic Week 4 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a game that serves as Alex Smith's return to the Bay.
Niners quarterback Colin Kaepernick's matchup with opposing quarterback Smith, whom he displaced as starter in the 2012 season, is likely to dominate the buildup to what looks to be an evenly matched contest on paper.
Both teams will be aiming to gain momentum after getting back to 2-2 with morale-boosting wins. The Niners outlasted the Eagles 26-21 with a stern defensive performance, while the Chiefs dismantled the New England Patriots in a stunning 41-14 triumph.
The battle between a Niners defense performing well in spite of the absences of NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith and the Chiefs' suddenly explosive offense promises to be an intriguing one.
Meanwhile, the 49ers offense, which—despite finally ending its second-half points drought versus Philadelphia—still has issues surrounding the Kaepernick's performance, play-calling and the play of the offensive line, will need to be on its game in order get the better of a Kansas City defense ranked No. 11 in the league after the first four games.
But which players will have a game-changing impact at Levi's Stadium? Here I make my picks with five bold predictions for the Chiefs' visit to Santa Clara.
Aaron Lynch Will Post Multiple Sacks
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There can be no question that the 49ers' pass rush has struggled through the opening weeks of the new season; however, San Francisco displayed distinct improvement in that area against the Eagles.
Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles was restricted to just 195 yards and committed two turnovers as the Niners defense prevented the Eagles offense from scoring a touchdown.
One of the main reasons for the success of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's unit last Sunday was that it was finally able to generate consistent pressure, sacking Foles once, while also hurrying him eight times and hitting him four times, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
San Francisco will be out to try produce a similar showing versus the Chiefs, and one of the keys to the 49ers achieving that aim is sure to be outside linebacker Aaron Lynch.
Fifth-round rookie Lynch played 25 snaps and was responsible for two hits on and two hurries of Foles, per PFF.
Per Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com, Lynch has now taken over from Corey Lemonier as the 49ers' pass-rush specialist, with Fangio conceding that they have looked better in terms of pursuing the quarterback with the former South Florida and Notre Dame man in the lineup.
"Our pass rush hadn’t been as good as we liked the past three games. "When Aaron has been in there, his has been a little bit better than some of the others. Felt it was justified to play him at this point in time."
Lynch has yet to register a sack, despite displaying significant flashes of the promise that convinced the Niners to select him. However, given the play of the Chiefs' starting tackles, that fact could well be about to change.
Tackles Eric Fisher and Ryan Harris are ranked at No. 61 and No. 48 in the league by PFF, with the duo allowing a combined nine quarterback hurries, nine hits and three sacks through the first four games.
Smith is one of the more mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, yet with Lynch possessing magnificent strength and athleticism, the Kansas City signal-caller's ability with his legs will not be enough to prevent the Niners' rookie rusher from opening his tally with a multiple-sack game.
Steve Johnson Will Lead the Niners in Targets
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In the preseason there were concerns over Kaepernick's rapport with wide receiver Steve Johnson following his move to the 49ers in a trade from the Buffalo Bills.
Back in August Kaepernick admitted that he and Johnson were not "clicking," per Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee.
However, there is evidence that the pair have now developed a connection, with Johnson making big contributions in each of the last two games.
Johnson caught nine balls for 103 yards in the Week 3 defeat to Arizona and built on that showing with a spectacular touchdown grab that set the Niners on their way to a superb turnaround against the Eagles.
That excellent catch should give Kaepernick more faith in the seventh-year player, whose unorthodox route running consistently creates problems for opposing cornerbacks.
It is a good time for Johnson to start clicking with Kaepernick ahead of a matchup with a Chiefs secondary that figures to be depleted on Sunday due to the continued absence of starting strong safety Eric Berry and a knee injury to cornerback Marcus Cooper, who is questionable to play on Sunday, according to Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star.
Those blows to the back end of the Chiefs defense are likely to give the 49ers' passing attack added confidence that it can move the ball on a unit that shut down the Patriots with consummate ease.
With tight end Vernon Davis questionable because of back spasms and Michael Crabtree coming off a foot injury sustained versus Philadelphia, do not be surprised when Kaepernick looks to his emerging offensive weapon to try and pick apart Kansas City's injury-stricken secondary.
De'Anthony Thomas Will Score a Touchdown
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One of the most exciting players to come out of the 2014 draft, De'Anthony Thomas has the ability to add another dimension to the Kansas City Chiefs in two facets of the game.
A fourth-round pick out of Oregon, Thomas can operate as a running-back or wide receiver and is an electrifying option in special teams, displaying his proficiency in that area with an 80-yard punt return for a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in preseason.
After missing the first four games with a hamstring injury, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid revealed that Thomas is "good to go" on Friday, per KCChiefs.com's BJ Kissel.
With Knile Davis serving as the Chiefs' kick-return man, Thomas is most likely to see action as a punt returner, and given the Niners' recent special teams struggles, he should be relishing that prospect.
Per ESPN, the Niners are allowing 7.8 yards per punt return, nothing drastic, but it's bad enough for San Francisco to be ranked a disappointing No. 20 in the league in that part of the game.
A majority of those yards came in the victory over the Eagles, whose return man Darren Sproles found the end zone on a 82-yard scoot from an Andy Lee punt.
In recent times San Francisco has possessed one of the better special teams units in the league.
However, that group was brutally exposed by Sproles last time out, and there can be no doubt that Thomas, with speed that saw him run the 40-yard dash in 4.34 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine, has the capability to make the same impact and hurt the 49ers with his talents as a return man.
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Travis Kelce Wll Be Held Without a Touchdown
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The Chiefs' Monday night demolition of the Patriots served as a coming-out party for tight end Travis Kelce.
After scoring his first NFL touchdown against the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, Kelce was just seven yards short of his maiden 100-yard game versus New England and added another score in a glorious demonstration of the former Cincinnati Bearcat's outstanding potential.
Following that breakout game the expectation of many will be for the former third-round pick to continue his strong start to the season in the meeting with the Niners.
However, those expectations could be considered to be unrealistic when you look at the Niners' record against opposing tight ends in the first four weeks.
The Chicago Bears' Martellus Bennett is the only tight end the 49ers have allowed to catch a touchdown so far this season, with the Dallas Cowboys' Jason Witten and Zach Ertz of the Eagles held for just 57 yards combined by this impressively stubborn defense.
Kansas City, away from its extremely talented backfield, is not particularly rich in terms of offensive assets, and the absence of starting receiver Donnie Avery—who has undergone hernia surgery, according to The Associated Press (via KCChiefs.com)—may allow the 49ers to key in more closely on Kelce and wideout Dwayne Bowe, although tight end Anthony Fasano's abilities cannot afford to be ignored.
With his size and athleticism, Kelce is capable of causing the Niners problems downfield and in the red zone; however, the form suggests that Sunday is likely to be a day of struggle for the Chiefs' newest offensive weapon.
Frank Gore Will Gain More Yards Than Jamaal Charles
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Both Frank Gore and Jamaal Charles enjoyed huge games last week.
The 49ers' all-time leading rusher Gore had been pretty much neglected in the first three games but was handed the rock 24 times for 119 yards against Philadelphia and also caught a 55-yard touchdown pass from Kaepernick.
Gore's showing should be enough to convince offensive coordinator Greg Roman to get back to the run-first game plan that has been pivotal to the Niners' success in the last three seasons, especially versus a Chiefs' run defense that is allowing 116.5 yards per game on the ground.
For Charles, who returned from an ankle injury by putting up 92 rushing yards and scoring three total touchdowns versus New England, the matchup with the San Francisco run defense appears to be a tougher one.
Indeed, after being gashed by DeMarco Murray for 118 yards and a touchdown in the Week 1 clash with the Dallas Cowboys, the Niners' defensive front has stiffened and kept Matt Forte, Andre Ellington and LeSean McCoy in check, with the latter held to a mere 17 yards on 10 carries last week.
Through four games San Francisco ranks No. 2 in the league against the run, thanks in part to the form of Justin Smith, Ian Williams and Ray McDonald in the trenches.
Between Gore and Charles, it is the latter that has the better burst and the more overall upside.
However, with Davis in line to steal a good number of carries from Charles and the Niners showing little except contempt for opposing players attempting to run the ball on them, the smart money says that Gore will continue to defy those expecting him to slow down by posting the gaudier numbers in a battle of two of the better tailbacks in the NFL.
All statistics courtesy of NFL.com unless otherwise stated.
Nicholas McGee is a San Francisco 49ers Featured Columnist based in Leeds, England. Follow him on Twitter @nicholasmcgee24.
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