Complete 2014-15 Cincinnati Reds Offseason Preview and Predictions

The 2014 Cincinnati Reds season has mercifully concluded. What started as a team poised for October baseball ended as a team full of questions and uncertainty moving forward. 

The Reds finished their year at 76-86 with a run differential of minus-17. They ended their season 14 games back of the first-place St. Louis Cardinals and 12 games behind the San Francisco Giants for the NL's second wild-card spot.

Which, of course, means the 2014-15 Reds offseason has already started. With baseball taking a back seat until next year's Opening Day parade, the focus shifts to Reds general manager Walt Jocketty, who was just recently given a two-year extension. 

The following are the major questions surrounding this team entering the offseason, all of which will be addressed in this slideshow:

1. What is the Reds current payroll? 
2. Which current Reds players are entering free agency? 
3. What holes will the team need to fill? 
4. Who is a potential free-agent target for the Reds? 
5. Are there any possible trades the Reds may pursue? 

To answer those questions, the following is the 2014-15 Cincinnati Reds offseason preview and predictions. This slideshow will contain plenty of third-party analysis, as well as personal opinion, in order to enhance your experience with this preview. 

No. 1: Payroll Breakdown

Al Behrman/Associated Press

To begin the 2014 season, the Reds boasted the No. 12 payroll in baseball, according to Barry Petchesky of Deadspin. 

As the Reds enter this new offseason, here is a breakdown of their current payroll obligations, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts found on BaseballProspectus.com.

2014 payroll: $114,170,439

Coming off the books: about $43 million

2015 payroll: about $71 million

As a note, the proposed 2015 payroll does not include players like Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Mike Leake, Todd Frazier, Aroldis Chapman and Devin Mesoraco, all of which are arbitration eligible and will most assuredly be commanding more money next year than they did in 2014. So that $71 million figure is essentially useless before adding all of the above salaries.

No. 2: Reds Free Agents

Al Behrman/Associated Press

According to Cot's breakdown of the Reds' payroll obligations, it appears the Reds will have no players set to hit free agency. That doesn't mean the Reds won't create their own free agents, though. 

The Reds will most likely decide to pay $4.5 million just to part ways with aging left fielder Ryan Ludwick. Per Rotoworld, Ludwick was signed to a two-year, $17.5 million contract with an option for a third year at $9 million in 2015, which the Reds probably won't be taking.

Many will cite this contract as a mark against Walt Jocketty, but can you blame him? In 2012, the year in which Ludwick earned his new contract, he slashed .275/.346/.531. Would this not be an acceptable bat to occupy the middle of the Reds lineup?

Of course, in recent Reds fashion, Ludwick sustained a serious shoulder injury on the very first day of the 2013 campaign, and he hasn't been the same since. This season, Ludwick finished slashing .244/.308/.375. It is highly unlikely the Reds will bring him back considering the dollar amount he'll command for staying put.

Another player who could become a free agent is third baseman backup Jack Hannahan. Another Red who couldn't shake the injury bug, Hannahan will depart hardly leaving a mark on the team. He slashed just .188/.220/.250 in only 26 games played this season.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Reds will have to spend $2 million just to send Hannahan off. So far, that's a projection of nearly $6.5 million just to part ways with two players.

No. 3: Holes to Fill

Al Behrman/Associated Press

Discussing the holes will be difficult with this team, only because we don't know yet if there will be holes in the starting rotation. With ESPN's Buster Olney (subscription required) and Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal (h/t MLBTradeRumors.com's Mark Polishuk) discussing a potential trading of either Johnny Cueto or Mat Latos, respectively, we simply don't know how the rotation will look.

Therefore, this slideshow will address the obvious holes the Reds have right now: left field, bullpen and the offense.

According to FanGraphs, the Reds' combined effort in left field accounted for the third-worst batting average compared to every other team's left field. The same report shows the Reds' left field position as dead-last in the sport in OBP (.285) and second-worst in WAR (-1.6).

Many will argue that the left field position has been a gaping black hole for years now, and it has. But when you look at what Ryan Ludwick contributed in 2012, it's pretty easy to see why Jocketty considered Ludwick to be the fix in left that everyone wanted. 

The bullpen, in my opinion, is deserving of far more time and effort than an offense riddled with injuries. Not enough attention is given to the bullpen, which understates just how truly awful it was.

Per ESPN.com, the Reds bullpen finished the year at 11-31 with an ERA of 4.11. The 4.11 ERA was No. 26 in baseball, second-worst in the NL next to the Colorado Rockies. Eleven wins is dead-last in the sport, a whopping seven wins behind the second-fewest bullpen wins (Los Angeles Dodgers). 

Thirty-one bullpen losses officially accounts for the second-most losses in baseball and the most bullpen losses in the NL.

While offense seems to be the most popular topic surrounding the Reds, the bullpen might have been the team's most crippling facet. More than anything else—the offense, the bench, the possible need for one starting pitcher—the bullpen must be addressed. 

But that doesn't mean offense will go unmentioned. The obvious thing to do is to look at the runs scored. The Reds finished with 595 runs, third-worst in baseball. But if runs scored was the ultimate detriment, how did the St. Louis Cardinals, who scored just 619 runs, win the NL Central?

The answer: OBP. The Cardinals get on base. Getting on base makes opposing pitchers work harder, gets their pitch counts up and grants the offense more opportunities to score. Even if the offense doesn't score, it's laboring the starting pitcher and enhancing the chances of getting to the bullpen earlier, all of which have consequences.

Per ESPN.com, the Reds finished with the second-worst OBP in the sport. Is it any wonder how a guy who played in just 62 games managed to end the year at No. 2 on the team in walks?

Cincinnati Enquirer beat writer John Fay addressed this very topic in an article he wrote last week:

"

I think that's the wrong approach. I would concentrate on getting a left fielder who can get on base. The most basic difference between this year's offense and last year's is the Reds simply do not put enough runners on base.

The team on-base percentage was .298 entering Saturday. That's down from .327 last year. That's a whole lot of base-runners. Since the All-Star break, the Reds have a .278 on-base. That's 34 points below the league average.

Last year's offense was flawed. Last year, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce combined to drive in 212 runs. They went into Saturday with 104.

"

The Reds may need a bat, but not the home run/RBI guy everyone seemingly desires. They need professional hitters that know how to raise a pitcher's pitch count and get on base. At this time, Joey Votto may be the only one who fits the bill.

To recap: The major holes the Reds must address this offseason are their left field, their terrible bullpen and their lineup's inability to consistently reach base. 

No. 4: Potential Free-Agent Targets

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

The free-agent madness is just a guessing game, but considering what holes the Reds need to fill, it becomes a little more plausible. We already know that left field is a black hole for this organization. Younger talent like Jesse Winker and Yorman Rodriguez are probably at least a year or more away from MLB service, which means the Reds may have to address left field via free agency.

The Kansas City Royals' Nori Aoki is a name that I personally think would be an incredible match for the Reds. One of the biggest problems facing the Reds this year was the inability to get runners on base. As previously mentioned, per ESPN.com, the Reds are sporting the second-worst OBP in the entire sport.

And it makes sense. While the Reds also finished second-last in overall hits, you'll notice it wasn't due to an inability to put the bat on the ball. ESPN.com also illustrates how the Reds were No. 15, right in the middle of the pack, in strikeouts.

According to FanGraphs, the Reds were No. 8 in O-swing percentage, meaning balls swung at outside of the strike zone. This is evidence that suggests a problem with plate discipline, which means any bat brought into the organization should try to address this deficiency.

Nori Aoki would do just that. This year, Aoki slashed .285/.354/.360. Aoki was signed to a three-year, nearly $5 million contract. While he will definitely command more following a great season, it's possible he'll still be affordable for a team like the Reds. His bat and ability to routinely reach base is precisely what the Reds offense needs.

If not Aoki, then Michael Cuddyer could be another potential fit. The 35-year-old utility man could take left field and would be a wealthy addition to the middle of the order.

This year, Cuddyer suffered a shoulder injury that resulted in him playing in only 49 games. But in 205 plate appearances, he slashed .332/.376/.579, coming off of a 2013 campaign in which he slashed .331/.389/.530. Considering his age and his injury, he might be had for a bargain this offseason. 

Nick Groke of The Denver Post writes that the starting outfield in Colorado appears to be set without Cuddyer. When asked about his potential return, Cuddyer responded: "I'd like to for sure. But you never know about the offseason. It's an animal of its own."

Think these names stink? Here is a list from BaseballProspectus.com containing every single potential free agent for this offseason. 

No. 5: Trade Possibilities

Al Behrman/Associated Press

This is where it gets interesting. There have been countless reports stating that the Reds will try to deal at least one starting pitcher this offseason. The logic is simple: After 2015, the Reds will have four of their five starting pitchers set to become free agents, with Homer Bailey being the only pitcher thus far to have been signed to beyond 2015.

Of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon, the Reds will more than likely not be able to sign all four. Therefore, in an effort to ensure they receive maximum value for losing arguably their most important facet of the team, they may potentially trade one or more.

Olney wrote on why the Reds should trade Johnny Cueto this offseason. While I am personally not in favor of such a bold move, the logic, especially this bit, seems tempting. From the article: "The Reds could tell interested teams: 'Sure, we'll talk about trading Cueto … if you're willing to take Phillips, too.'"

Brandon Phillips' contract has rightfully been a magnet for debate among Reds fans. This year, he slashed .266/.306/.372. This marks the fourth consecutive season the 33-year-old will witness both his OBP and his slugging percentage go down. Had he not hit .266, it would have been his fourth consecutive year of declining batting average.

Sure, Phillips has battled his share of injuries. But he's been declining offensively since 2011. Furthermore, it won't be easy to trade Phillips because of his 10-and-5 rights, meaning he'll be able to reject any trade he doesn't like.

But when you consider the fact that Phillips will be making $12 million next season, and the Reds' option for Cueto is $10 million, if the Reds could partner with any big-money club like the LA Angels, New York Yankees, LA Dodgers, etc., it's a chance to award the club incredible payroll flexibility. 

Phillips won't even speak to Cincinnati local media, so it's hard to imagine him being hesitant to go to another city. 

The return from a trade like that would probably feature more high prospects than MLB-level talent, but the addition to payroll would be tempting by itself.

MLBTradeRumors.com's Mark Polishuk wrote the following regarding a possible Cueto deal:

"

Cueto’s next contract will be in the nine-figure range, and it’s unclear if the Reds would be willing [to] ink another major extension given how much money has been tied up in recent deals with Bailey, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips.  Cueto would net the biggest return in a trade, though moving their ace would seem to hint that the Reds are punting on 2015, which I doubt they’re prepared to do.  On the other hand, the Reds could trade Cueto for Major League parts (such what the Rays and Red Sox received for David Price, John Lackey and Jon Lester before last July’s trade deadline) and use a Cueto deal to reload rather than rebuild.

"

Aroldis Chapman may be another tempting bargaining chip. The rationale surrounding Chapman seems pretty obvious. Not only is he another arbitration-eligible player, but Chapman recorded just 54 innings of work this season, a record-setting season at that (consecutive appearances with a strikeout). He recorded just 36 saves, only two fewer than he had the previous two years.

There's really no reason for a cash-strapped team like the Reds to hold onto a valuable sideshow like this. That's too much money invested to a facet of the team that doesn't get the necessary appearances to contribute. 

Trading Aroldis Chapman could definitely bring back MLB-ready talent. Because this wouldn't be a payroll move, the Reds could market Chapman for a bat and/or more bullpen assistance.

While trading Latos has become an increasingly popular idea, the fact is, it's pretty difficult to get any sort of value out of guys beginning and ending their year on the disabled list. For that reason, I doubt anything happens with Latos, who may or may not be this team's ace on 2015's Opening Day.

All stats and salary information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.