Which Dallas Mavericks Player Has the Most Upside Right Now?
The Dallas Mavericks are not young. They’re built around established veterans who’ve long understood why they’re in the NBA and have a good idea what role they’ll assume on this year’s squad (from Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis, Devin Harris and Tyson Chandler to newcomers like Jameer Nelson and Richard Jefferson).
But still, a few younger contributors should help out a good deal. One of them is Al-Farouq Aminu, the versatile 6’9” small forward who’s already filed four full years in the league but only celebrated his 24th birthday on September 21.
Aminu is youthful vigor. He's talented in the game's most understated areas, with a skill set that isn't glamorous or celebratory.
Aminu can't score a lot of points, nor should he on this Mavericks team. But where he already excels can stand to get even better, and if it does—along with subtle and manageable improvements to his various weaknesses—this overlooked fifth-year player could become one of the most valuable contributors on a title contender.
Dallas' big offseason acquisition, Chandler Parsons, could very well bloom into something even more beautiful in Rick Carlisle’s empowering offensive system. But he’s already shown the ability to score in myriad ways, both in transition and the half-court. The Mavericks would not have offered approximately $45 million to a player if they didn’t already think he was extremely productive.
Parsons has little more to prove and could very well be close to maxing out his talent. Some think he already has (Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey included).
Aminu, on the other hand, was not heavily sought after by any team this summer. Instead, the former lottery pick was plucked on a one-year deal at the veteran’s minimum.
But after closely assessing the first chapter of his career—from a rookie season with the then-dysfunctional Los Angeles Clippers to being a castaway cog in the Chris Paul deal, to three years shuffling around as one of the more consistent players (for better or worse) on some bad New Orleans Pelicans teams—and the skill set he’s yet to fully realize, the best is yet to come.
Let's start by looking at how differently Aminu will be used in Dallas versus New Orleans. According to Synergy Sports (subscription required), 25.8 percent of Aminu’s offensive production last season came from spot-up shots, the most of any mode of attack. This doesn't make a whole lot of sense being that Aminu isn't a good long-range shooter.
The sample size is small here (only 1.7 attempts per game), but stretched over the entire 2013-14 season, Aminu made just under a third of all his spot-up attempts.
He’s all but given up on threatening defenses behind the three-point line, attempting 0.5 threes per game since his rookie season, and shot just 32 percent from 16-23 feet last year. Aminu doesn't pull up, either, again averaging 0.5 attempts every night and missing about 70 percent of the time.
Those numbers don’t inspire a fireworks celebration, but Aminu's shot chart and actual shooting form paint a tolerable, less ugly picture:
The structure of Aminu’s shot is far from an abomination. At first glance, it actually looks more than serviceable, and many aspects of the NBA are less aesthetically attractive. This doesn't mean he'll suddenly turn into a sniper just because Carlisle is his coach, but it breeds hope.
Nobody should burden Aminu with the expectation of becoming one of the most accurate corner-three marksmen in the league. But if he’s afforded an extra split second to let one go, it isn’t unreasonable to think he can achieve league-average accuracy or better—especially playing beside supernova presences like Nowitzki, Parsons and Ellis.
Beyond shooting jumpers, one of the first things that stands out from watching Aminu's tape last season is how often he ran into trouble doing just about anything except finishing a play at the rim.
Despite shooting a smidge over 47 percent on drives to the basket, he isn’t a creator and will never be someone who can run a pick-and-roll or slice into the teeth of a collapsing defense. These sequences are the beginning of a horror movie.
Here he is catching a dump pass from Austin Rivers smack dab in the middle of no man’s land. He’s too far from the rim to lay it in or dunk it and too close to attempt a jump shot. He instead is asked to create his own shot; many paper towels are needed to clean up the mess.
The Mavericks didn’t sign Aminu to thrive as a scorer, but they would still like to extract a smoother attack from his still-raw athleticism by placing him in more comfortable situations that will help both him and the team.
He finished last season as the 35th-most efficient roll man in the league (granted, Aminu didn't even get 30 cracks at it) and the 51st-most efficient on cuts. He's an athletic finisher who can tie a bow on most possessions once a teammate does the heavy lifting. Here he is darting toward the rim on a simple pick-and-roll and finishing in traffic against the defending world champs.
Point being: Aminu is a wonderful complementary piece. If he strictly focuses on what he's already good at, Dallas may find itself with one of the league's great bargains. Here are Mavericks owner Mark Cuban's thoughts from a radio interview in early September, transcribed by Earl K. Sneed from Mavs.com:
"He’s been the last two years the best rebounding small forward in the NBA. It’s not even close. You know, it’s kind of like Shawn Marion. Not to compare the two, but sometimes just going to a new location takes you out of the perception that your former team had of you and puts you in a new position to succeed. And I think Al is just going to be a stud. He literally was one of the first calls I made during free agency, because we were hoping that we could get him as kind of a young stud defensively that we can put in. And we think in our system that he’ll be able to produce offensively much better.
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This is the real value Aminu brings, and his particular skill set is unique on a roster that’s loaded with guys who aren’t used to helping their team get better if they aren’t being asked to score.
Unleashed as a forceful rebounder on both ends of the court, Aminu should be able to give Dallas’ potent offense more opportunities (aka more possessions) to put the ball in the basket. He snatched an impressive 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes over the past two years—incredible production from a wing.
Elsewhere, Aminu can still grow into becoming a First-Team All-Defense-caliber asset. Aminu’s long arms and tremendous instincts turn him into a barbed wire fence with reflexes. Last year, opposing pick-and-roll ball-handlers shot just 36.9 percent with him defending it. The spotlight will shine now that he’s playing for a championship contender.
He can handle multiple positions with competence (crucial on a team that has very few above-average individual defenders) and almost always makes the other team’s best offensive player work excessively hard. From Kevin Love to Kevin Durant to Stephen Curry, Aminu spent time guarding them all last season. He’ll only get better with age as more experience secures a better understanding of Dallas’ defensive rotations.
When he was drafted with the eighth overall pick back in 2010 (immediately ahead of Gordon Hayward and Paul George), there was optimistic belief that Aminu’s raw ability could be honed into a few appearances at All-Star Weekend, or, at the very least, an indispensable piece on a competitive team.
The highest expectations are long gone, but that doesn’t mean the ladder to a lower ceiling has crumbled. Aminu still has great potential on both ends. Maximizing it all won’t be easy, but the path in Dallas will certainly be less rocky than it was anywhere else.
Heading into the 2014-15 season, Aminu is quietly a decent basketball player. Expect him to be viewed in a much brighter light once the year is over and the next chapter of his career begins.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
Michael Pina covers the NBA for Bleacher Report, Sports on Earth, FOX Sports, ESPN, Grantland and elsewhere. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.
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