What Fringe NBA Title Contenders Need to Get Over the Hump
There are currently just a few surefire, no-questions-asked championship contenders in the NBA, but a number of other teams are close to joining that conversation.
In the cases of the teams to follow, the talent is in place but a particular hurdle still stands in the way of serious contention. For example, the Los Angeles Clippers, dangerous as they are, desperately need somebody capable of backing up Blake Griffin.
To be clear, we're not discussing the already established title threats. The San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls are the NBA's elite clubs—or at least we think so now, weeks before training camp opens.
Their championship chances are the best, per Odds Shark, and nobody will be stunned if any member of that quartet hoists that big, heavy trophy in June.
On the other end of the spectrum, you've got teams with no shot whatsoever at contention—your Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic, just to name a few. The list of non-contenders is much longer than that, but we're not concerned with clubs lacking a shot at real success.
Instead, we'll run through the fringe contenders, teams that have many of the required championship ingredients but need a key development in order to lift their profiles.
All of these teams were in the playoffs last year, but none advanced past the conference semifinals. And every one of them hopes to fix a critical flaw that stands between them and the league's truly elite.
Dallas Mavericks
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What It'll Take: One More Vintage Dirk Season
It's difficult to overstate how good Dirk Nowitzki's age-35 season was. Put in the simplest terms, The Diggler had the most efficient scoring campaign for a player his age in NBA history. He's extended his prime well past the edge of reason.
Karl Malone is the only other player in history to score at least 21 points per game while shooting 49 percent from the field and 39 percent from long range after turning 35, per Basketball-Reference.com. And to be fair, the Mailman attempted just five triples in the age-37 season that qualified him for this list.
He doesn't really count, which means Nowitzki stands alone as a late-career efficiency monster.
The point of all this is to say that Dirk is in uncharted territory. He's a flat-out elite scorer, the focal point of a terrific offense and, you'd think, on borrowed time. He can't do this forever...can he?
Granted, Nowitzki's game is built to age gracefully. He never really depended on athleticism, so its complete absence from his arsenal hardly matters. As long as Dirk is 7 feet tall and ridiculously accurate from anywhere on the floor, he should remain a dominant offensive force.
But it would be crazy to guarantee he'll reach the impossible standard he's set forever.
The Dallas Mavericks retooled this offseason, addressing their defensive needs with Tyson Chandler in the middle and adding more wing scoring with Chandler Parsons. The team is more balanced than ever, and head coach Rick Carlisle is justifiably famous for making virtually any personnel grouping into a formidable team.
If Nowitzki remains a superstar scorer in his age-36 season (a caveat that would sound completely absurd if we were talking about anyone else), the Mavs should improve on the 49 wins they posted last year and make a real run at a ring.
Golden State Warriors
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What It'll Take: A Functional Offense
No offense that features the collected talents of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, David Lee and Andre Iguodala should finish outside of the league's top five. Last year's Golden State Warriors finished 12th in offensive rating, per NBA.com.
Twelfth!
Enter new head coach Steve Kerr and, the Warriors hope, scoring salvation.
"It will be influenced by the triangle but it will not look like the Bulls of the ’90s," Kerr said of his offensive plans, per Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News:
"I would be crazy to do away with screen and roll with Steph–he’s devastating in it. We’ll do plenty of that. But we have the opportunity to make some strides offensively and I think that will be reflected in my influences–which have been Popovich and Phil and Lenny Wilkens... They’ve all been coaches who emphasized ball movement, spacing and flow and having a system to rely on and that’s what I'm looking to give.
"
Kerr comes to Golden State with big offensive dreams and a unique combination of past experiences that make them seem possible. Aside from Jackson's and Popovich's influence, Kerr also presided as general manager over some excellent Steve Nash-era Phoenix Suns offenses.
If he can implement even the barest basics of those revered systems, the Warriors could make a major leap.
Last season, the offense dragged despite the talent assembled. Isolation sets were the frustrating answer whenever initial actions faltered, and Golden State went into stagnant post-ups as a first option far too frequently. No surprise then that the 2013-14 Dubs threw the fewest passes per game in the NBA, according to SportVU data provided to NBA.com.
If Kerr gets better off-ball movement, more corner threes and (for crying out loud!) the occasional intelligent counter when defenses sniff out first options, Golden State will immediately become a contender.
Remember, the Warriors ranked third in the league in defensive rating last season—a position they should sustain as Draymond Green eats into David Lee's minutes and new assistant Ron Adams implements elements of the Chicago Bulls' vaunted scheme.
If the Warriors move into the top five in offense this season, they'll profile as real contenders.
Houston Rockets
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What It'll Take: A Leader
James Harden has never had a problem leading his team in scoring; he's done it for the Houston Rockets in each of the past two years. But for things to go right in Clutch City, Harden has to lead in other areas.
Per Matt Moore of CBSSports.com: "And they needed better leadership. They needed someone to set the tone on the perimeter on defense. Harden wasn't going to do that. They needed someone to calm the ship late in games. Howard wasn't going to do that."
We can exclude Dwight Howard from any serious leadership conversations. He's had a decade to mature, and he hasn't. Howard is a terrific player, but not every terrific player is meant to lead. He's too goofy, too consumed with getting people to like him with his "Look at me, I'm fun!" buffoonery.
Harden's leadership chops are similarly problematic, as he's never set the tone in any way besides scoring—and some would even argue that his ball-stopping ways don't scream selflessness.
But he's young yet, and there were positive signs this summer.
USA Basketball Chairman Jerry Colangelo pointed out Harden to reporters when asked who would fill the leadership void created by Kevin Durant's FIBA withdrawal, per Michael Lee of The Washington Post: "Right now, I think I would look to Harden as that leader. Harden is kind of a natural leader and he seems to be willing to accept that role. And you can just kind of feel it and sense. He’s the one.”
If Houston gets a version of Harden who keeps Howard in line, adds a more serious tone to an often too-loose locker room and continues to score with unfair efficiency, a title will start to look a whole lot more realistic.
Los Angeles Clippers
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What It'll Take: A Few Decent Bigs
A team that already has Griffin and DeAndre Jordan anchoring a fearsome front line wouldn't seem to be in need of backup bigs, but when you remember that Glen Davis played significant playoff minutes last year, the problem crystallizes.
Jordan's free-throw woes make him a late-game target, and smart teams often force him off the floor. He's a major presence on defense and on the glass but has an obvious weakness that renders him far less potent in critical situations.
There is nothing bad to say about Griffin, other than the fact that he can't (we don't think) play 48 minutes per game.
Davis is back for another season, and he'll be joined by the husk of Hedo Turkoglu as Griffin's backup.
Behind Jordan, the Clips signed Spencer Hawes to the mid-level exception. Hawes figures to be the first big off the bench in L.A. and can stretch the floor with his three-point shot. But he's defensively invisible, and red flags should surround the numbers he piled up on horrible teams in Cleveland and Philadelphia last year.
Ekpe Udoh is an intriguing talent—a former lottery pick by the Warriors—who can defend and score at close range. He's a great minimum signing but probably isn't the kind of player a championship contender wants to give major minutes when it counts.
If Doc Rivers can cobble together a couple of decent backup combinations (Hawes and Udoh actually possess complementary skills), the Clips will be a team without a significant weakness. Otherwise, the same sad parade of substandard bigs off the bench will prevent Los Angeles from making the most out of the end of Chris Paul's prime.
Memphis Grizzlies
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What It'll Take: A Healthy Marc Gasol
You could probably make a "player X has to stay healthy" argument for any of these teams, but we've saved it for the Memphis Grizzlies because they so obviously need Marc Gasol on the court to contend.
Last year, the Grizzlies finished with a 50-32 record—nothing to sneeze at in a Western Conference which (perhaps you've heard) was pretty loaded. But that overall mark includes a 10-13 stretch the Grizzlies endured without Gasol.
With the big Spaniard in the middle, Memphis was 40-19, good enough for a .677 winning percentage that would have earned them the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round. The difficulty of the West means the Grizzlies wouldn't have been guaranteed to advance, but at least they would have ducked the Thunder in their opening series.
We know the Grizzlies defend at an elite level. We know they're a brutal team to play in a series because of their experience and raw physicality.
And now we know they're not the same when Gasol isn't in the lineup.
Memphis will add a healthy Quincy Pondexter, a still-effective Vince Carter and get a full season of Courtney Lee at the 2 this year. With what should be a top-five defense and a healthy Gasol, don't count them out.
Portland Trail Blazers
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What It'll Take: Organic Growth
The Portland Trail Blazers won 54 games in the West last year, riding a potent offensive attack and elite starting five that masked defensive shakiness and a lack of depth. There's good reason to believe Portland can do the same thing again this year, but it's now clear that a repeat performance won't be enough to seriously contend.
In order to raise this team's ceiling, the reserves already on hand have to inject real value into the rotation. That's because Portland's offseason additions didn't move the needle.
With apologies to Chris Kaman and Steve Blake, the Blazers didn't do a great job bringing in outside help.
So Thomas Robinson, Meyers Leonard, C.J. McCollum and Will Barton must show they're ready to maintain the leads created by the starting five—not give them away.
All four of those players are 23 or younger, which means it's far too soon to say they've finished developing. McCollum, a scoring guard picked 10th in the 2013 draft, missed more than half of the season. He in particular could quickly grow into a useful first guard off the bench.
The Blazers got a lesson from the Spurs last spring, as San Antonio's reserves outscored Portland's by a margin of 220-77 in their postseason series. With no help coming from outside sources, Terry Stotts must get something from his incumbents.
If Portland enjoys some organic growth, title contention will become a whole lot more realistic.
Miami Heat
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What It'll Take: Anger
This isn't to say the Miami Heat need to be flipping over tables at the postgame spread or bashing their own heads into lockers to get fired up. But, you know, that stuff might not hurt.
What really needs to happen for the LeBron-less Heat to get into the title picture is the adoption of a collective "I'll show you" mentality—preferably one born of the doubt surrounding the team now that it no longer employs the best player in the known universe.
Dwyane Wade needs to get ticked off enough at those who doubt his durability to soldier through more than 60 games.
Chris Bosh must lash out at the critics who lambasted his rebounding, called him soft and certainly don't expect a Raptors-era rejuvenation of his game.
Erik Spoelstra must coach with the passion of a man suddenly forced to prove himself after winning two championship rings.
The rest of the roster—new additions like Luol Deng and Danny Granger as well as old hands like Udonis Haslem and Mario Chalmers—must all take offense to the pervasive belief that the Heat are nothing without James.
"Four years," Chalmers told B/R's Ethan Skolnick. "And now we're the forgotten team. So it's good. We all accept it. I've talked to D-Wade several times, I've talked to CB several times. We're ready."
It's entirely possible that Miami really is nothing without its departed best player, but it might turn itself into something if the remaining pieces of a former dynasty rally around their shared desire to prove people wrong.
Washington Wizards
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What It'll Take: Immediate Maturity
The Washington Wizards have a pair of young cornerstones in John Wall and Bradley Beal who should keep the franchise relevant for years to come. And while the future should remain a consideration for the Wiz, a couple of key decisions this summer put an increased focus on the present.
You don't bring in Paul Pierce, who'll turn 37 before the 2014-15 season starts, as part of a five-year plan. And you probably don't retain two costly over-30 bigs like Marcin Gortat and Nene if you're looking to build for the distant future.
Washington recognizes the weakness of the East and will look to capitalize by fast-tracking its construction process.
That means Wall and Beal need to grow up now.
Washington's backcourt duo took big steps forward last season, and after dipping a toe in postseason waters, Wall and Beal must be ready for a headlong dive. Asking two players in their early 20s to arrive as leaders and tone-setters ahead of schedule might be dangerous, and it's definitely impatient.
But the time to strike in the East is now, when a top-four seed is easily within reach and a key injury here or there could open things up even more for a team like Washington.
Yes, the Wizards' guards are part of a long-term plan. But there's no guarantee a better opportunity will arise down the line. It's time for Wall and Beal to grow up in a hurry.
Good thing they got a head start last year.
