Ideal MLB Playoff Scenarios We Would Most Like to See

With the MLB playoffs fast approaching, it is time to take a glimpse into some ideal scenarios that set up well as part of the larger conversation.

To be sure, nothing has been finalized with relation to seeding and no one has clinched a playoff berth yet. As such, we are going to keep things simple by only referring to teams that qualify for the playoffs as of game time Monday.

We will also keep the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds out of the conversation up front. We will instead focus on ideal scenarios for the American League and National League Wild Card Round and then focus on the championship series in each league.

After all, the very concept of “ideal matchup” means that there is a variable at play, such as not knowing who will end up advancing from the Wild Card Game to face the No. 1 seed.

And while the World Series is indeed part of the playoffs, we will not discuss ideal scenarios for it. That is another column altogether.

And this is not about popularity. The Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers are certainly a bigger draw nationally than the Kansas City Royals or Pittsburgh Pirates, but ratings have no place here.

This is an attempt to balance statistics with historical perspective. This is not a prediction or a guarantee.

Here are four ideal scenarios we would most love to see in the 2014 MLB playoffs.

AL Wild Card: Felix Hernandez vs. Jon Lester

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Let’s remove the offenses for the Oakland A’s and the Seattle Mariners from the equation for a moment.

Sure, the Mariners have Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Dustin Ackley playing very well right now, and the A’s have MVP candidate Josh Donaldson and several other players worth watching, but this game will be all about the pitching, specifically a matchup between Felix Hernandez (14-5, 2.12 ERA) and Jon Lester (3-3. 2.59).

Lester is built for October baseball. Look no further than his 2.11 ERA and 1.043 WHIP over 13 postseason appearances for proof. And considering that he was acquired from the Boston Red Sox at the July 31 MLB non-waiver trade deadline for just this reason, it adds even more intrigue.

What better way for general manager Billy Beane to legitimize his much-maligned in-season tinkering than to have one of his acquisitions pitch the club into the American League Division Series.

As far as Hernandez goes, the A’s just can’t top him.

In five starts against them, he is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA and a 0.982 WHIP. The domination runs deeper. He has only allowed a .216/.257/.338 slash line against and has only given up 47 total bases in 37.2 innings pitched, per splits at Baseball-Reference.

To be sure, all of this can change in a matter of a few days. After all, the Mariners were only ahead of the Detroit Tigers for the second Wild Card spot by one-half game and behind the Angels in the AL West by two games when play began on Monday.

If it does end up being the Mariners and A's, though, neither manager will have to worry about tinkering with his rotation. As Susan Slusser from the San Francisco Chronicle noted, the “Lester-Hernandez matchup lines up to be the same for any potential one-game playoff after the season.”

NL Wild Card: Francisco Liriano vs. Madison Bumgarner

Jose Juarez/Associated Press

Ideally, the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants will face off with both of their top starters ready to take the bump.

For the Giants, that means that Madison Bumgarner has his obligatory five days rest—no more.

In 17 starts with the customary days between starts, he has a 3.19 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 6.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) and is holding opposing hitters to a .648 OPS. With one extra day, those numbers jump to 3.47, 1.235, 4.13 and .708, respectively, per splits at Baseball-Reference.

Those may seem like nominal variances, but with one game deciding everything, they matter quite a bit.

Regarding the Pirates, Francisco Liriano (4-10, 3.74 ERA) is the only real option. True, Edinson Volquez has more wins (11) and a lower ERA (3.11), but his elevated FIP (4.32) tells a different story.

And make no mistake: Liriano can bring it. Over his last 10 starts, he’s pitching to a 2.51 ERA with 68 strikeouts in 61.0 innings pitched. More impressively, he is holding opposing hitters to a .199/.281/.287 slash line against and has only surrenders 43 hits over that stretch.

Another reason Liriano makes the most sense is that he has been here before. Let’s not forget that he logged seven innings of one-run ball against the Cincinnati Reds in last year’s Wild Card Round.

All told, this game will be about pitching. And frankly, Bumgarner and Liriano are the only two starters that should be considered.

That is, of course, if their respective managers can find a way to set the rotation while still maintaining their current spot in the standings. To be sure, that is easier said than done.

ALCS: Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

No offense to the Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels or any other team that may reach the postseason, but the Seattle Mariners facing off against the Kansas City Royals is the ideal matchup for the American League Championship Series.

When play began Monday, the Mariners had the best pitching staff in baseball, per splits at ESPN.com. They ranked first in the MLB in ERA (3.02), batting average against (.228) and opponent’s OPS (.645).

From top to bottom, they are the goods. SI.com’s Tom Verducci had this to say not too long ago:

"

Seattle is winning with Deadball Baseball. 

…

The Mariners’ pitching staff is the result of exploiting just about every run-prevention methodology that has created the greatest pitching era in 40 years: hard throwers with an extra-deep bullpen backed by advanced analytics and a defense featuring the kind of rangy athletes who were effectively drummed out of the game in the Steroid Era. It helps, too, that Seattle plays its home games in a pitcher’s paradise, Safeco Field.

"

The Royals aren’t that far behind, and they’re doing it the hard way.

Their rotation ranks fourth in the American League, per ESPN, yet lacks a starter with a sub-1.000 WHIP or an FIP below 3.50. The bullpen ranks in the middle of the AL in several categories, according to those same splits, but with Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland doing the heavy lifting at the back end, they’re as formidable as any team.

And they're exceptional on defense, aggressive on the bases (133 stolen bases) and get just enough done on offense to pose a legitimate threat to any team that reaches the postseason.

Truth be told, they’re the best team in MLB since the beginning of August, winning 24 times against 11 losses going into action Monday.

Honestly, though, what makes this an ideal matchup is that it has been a long time coming for each club. The Mariners haven’t been to the ALCS since 2001, and the Royals haven’t knocked on the door to the World Series since they won it all in 1985.

Having them face off for the chance to make it to the World Series would be a treat for MLB.

NLCS: Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

No doubt, the National League is stacked with clubs playing great baseball right now.

Of the teams currently jockeying for postseason positioning, the two teams that would make for the most exciting matchup in the NL Championship Series are the Washington Nationals and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Yes, the Los Angeles Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and Yasiel Puig. Yes, the San Francisco Giants have been playing great baseball and Buster Posey has killed the ball lately. And as long as Andrew McCutchen is roaming center field for the Pittsburgh Pirates, manager Clint Hurdle's club has a shot.

For a great series, though, the teams to watch are the Nationals and the Cardinals.

The Cards had won eight of their last 10 going into action Monday, passing the slumping Milwaukee Brewers in the process. The rotation is stacked for the postseason with Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha all posting ERAs below 3.00.

Offensively, the club is getting boosts from Matt Holliday and the return of Yadier Molina. Molina’s return from the disabled list has the added benefit of providing the staff with “an extra sense of comfort,” according to Holliday, via CBS Sports’ Doug Gottlieb. 

The Nationals, meanwhile, sport the best pitching staff in the NL if we use their 3.12 ERA as the barometer and rank second in the league with 604 runs scored. 

They are so talented that veteran shortstop Ian Desmond said that “this is the best Nationals we’ve been,” per Adam Kilgore from The Washington Post. He has a point. They are the total package from top to bottom.

And let’s not forget that the Nationals are looking for redemption after the Cardinals knocked them out of the postseason in 2012 and eliminated them from contention last year.

There could not be any more drama.

Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, ranking and advanced statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are accurate as of game time Monday, Sept. 8. Transaction, game and injury information are courtesy of MLB.com. 

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