Breaking Down How the A's Remaining Schedule Compares to Wild-Card Competition
After losing five of their last six games, the Oakland A's have fans wondering if it's still possible to turn things around and retake the AL West lead.
Now eight games back in the division, the A's are struggling to keep hold of a playoff spot at all. They are currently one game up on the Detroit Tigers and 1.5 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners.
Heading into August, this team was on top of baseball. Then they made a huge swap at the trade deadline, sending Yoenis Cespedes to the Boston Red Sox for ace pitcher Jon Lester Jonny Gomes. Many believed the best team got better. Looking at August and September, playoffs seemed like an obvious reality.
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August turned out to be much more difficult than expected. September has not started well, either. With 19 games left in the 2014 season, this one is going to be uncomfortably close.
And it will end in either a huge sigh of relief or the biggest letdown in recent A's history.
So who has the easiest and hardest remaining schedule among the teams Oakland is currently battling? Let's take a look.
Detroit Tigers
All 16 of Detroit's remaining games come against AL Central opponents. You'd think that would be good for them, seeing as how they'd face two losing teams in the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins. However, in 2014, the Tigers have split with both teams.
Still, the Tigers will be making a push into playoffs, so ending the season with seven games against those two teams—and in Detroit—should definitely benefit them.
The Royals sit at the top of the AL Central for now. Though Kansas City is the best team in the division, the Tigers have beaten them 11 times this season in 16 tries.
The team has been sporadic when it comes to streaks. In the last 10 games, for instance, they've only won three consecutive games and have only lost two in a row.
Detroit has won six of its last 10 games.
Worst-case scenario: The Tigers go 6-10, losing every series and splitting a four-game set with the Twins. That would still put them at 86 wins.
Best-case scenario: The Tigers win about 13 games, as they should, putting them at 93 wins. That should be good for a playoff spot, whether it's as the division winner or a wild-card team. This scenario is much more likely to occur.
Detroit has the second-easiest remaining schedule of teams listed here and should definitely make the playoffs after winning at least 10 more games.
The Royals have it much harder on paper than the Tigers.
They'll play four against the Boston Red Sox, then finish the season against AL Central opponents such as the Indians, White Sox and Tigers. They do not have the luxury of playing the Twins anymore. Additionally, they'll play 11 games in 10 consecutive days, including seven away games to finish 2014.
Kansas City has been dominated by Detroit and also owns a losing record against Cleveland this season. In one other series against the Red Sox, the Royals were swept.
A makeup game is scheduled for Sept. 22, giving the Royals a doubleheader in their 10-day stretch. Maybe it's not that big of a deal, but this late in the season, fatigue is surely setting in and a two-for-one could do damage to the team's stamina.
Kansas City has won six of its last 10.
Worst-case scenario: The Royals win just six remaining games, and none are against the Tigers. This would give them 86 wins, but surely knock them out as division winners.
Best-case scenario: Just like Detroit's best- and worst-case scenarios, the Royals could win 13 of their remaining games. It would take a massive effort, though. If they can take three of four from Boston and Chicago, and win the series against Detroit, they'd put themselves in a position to finish on top of the Central.
Kansas City has the second-toughest schedule of all five on this list. They should realistically win about nine games, putting them at 89-64.
The Angels could literally go either way with their remaining schedule. This one is hard to call.
After finishing with the Texas Rangers, they have three against the Houston Astros, four against the Mariners, then three more with the Rangers. They'll finish away from home with a series against Oakland and one against Seattle.
Oddly enough, they have a day off before a final series. They'll need it, though, as they'll play 23 straight games beforehand. And the final three of that tough stretch? Oakland in Oakland.
Los Angeles has winning records against Houston and Texas, so those games shouldn't be a problem. But here's where it gets tricky.
The team actually has a losing record to Seattle, and they've split the season series with Oakland.
Of the teams so far, though, the Angels appear to be the hottest right now. They've reeled off seven wins in a row and won 13 of their last 16.
Worst-case scenario: They win the series against Texas and Houston, lose one series against Seattle and split the other, and get swept by Oakland. That's seven wins. Even then, they'd win 97 games and still be sitting pretty.
Best-case scenario: They terrorize the West and win 14 of their final games. This would give the Angels 104 wins and the designation of World Series favorites.
Los Angeles has the third-easiest (or third-hardest) schedule. Unless the Angels lose every game from here on out, it doesn't really matter what happens: They're headed to playoffs as a strong contender. Punch their ticket.
Seattle Mariners
Of all teams on this list, the Mariners may have the toughest road ahead.
Their schedule includes three against the Athletics at home, then 11 games on the road against LA, Houston and the Toronto Blue Jays. All 17 remaining games will be played in a row.
Of course, that's a tough schedule on paper. In reality, the Mariners have a winning record against all four opponents.
Seattle has won seven of its last 11.
Additionally, the Mariners may be in the best position to succeed. Whereas the A's and Royals are desperate to hold on and the Tigers and Angels are likely OK just maintaining, the Mariners have come from way behind and forced themselves into the conversation. This all while no one expected them to make playoffs.
Seattle has plenty to prove. And that makes them dangerous.
Worst-case scenario: Hypothetically the Mariners could get swept by both the A's and the Angels in three-game sets, and drop three of four from LA in another series. Barring a disgusting collapse by another contender, five more wins won't cut it.
Best-case scenario: Twelve games is about the maximum the Mariners can win. That gives them 91 wins and keeps them right on the edge of playoffs.
Seattle has the hardest schedule remaining. As the team furthest behind, they must play fantastic baseball or depend on someone to flop. Seattle's destiny really depends on others.
The A's certainly have the oddest closing schedule of all teams here.
They will finish off the White Sox on Thursday then head to Seattle.
After a day off, they have 13 straight, including nine at home. Opponents include the Rangers for three, the Philadelphia Phillies for three, three against the Angels and four more against Texas to finish the 2014 season.
Perhaps that's a blessing.
Oakland has split the season series 8-8 with LA and has a winning record against Texas. And though the A's have not played Philadelphia this year, the Phillies are 11 games under .500.
Oakland has one of—if not the easiest remaining schedule.
The A's need a rebound badly. They've lost 10 of their last 14.
Worst-case scenario: The slump continues and the A's lose to teams they should beat. The worst possible thing that could happen would be getting swept by Los Angeles and winning only one game of each remaining series. That'd be four wins (five if they split the four games with Texas), which would definitely keep them home during the postseason.
Best-case scenario: The A's sweep the Rangers and the Phillies, which isn't unrealistic. They take two of three from Seattle and LA and then three of four from Texas to end the year. With 14 wins, they finish with 95 total. That probably won't be enough to grab the division, but could get the job done for the AL Wild Card.
Oakland has the easiest remaining schedule.
Conclusion and Predictions
Based on how each team is currently playing and each team's remaining schedule, it seems all but a given that the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels will win their respective divisions.
Next up is the AL Wild Card.
If you bet on the A's to take the first wild-card spot, you wouldn't be a fool. But they have to turn things around as soon as possible. Playing at their current rate will not get the job done.
As for the last spot, between Seattle's motivation and Kansas City's tough schedule, the Mariners may be in a better position to succeed. The Mariners' current run makes it seem as if they're destined for the playoffs.
That means Oakland and Seattle would be in the two AL Wild Cards.
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