12 Biggest Storylines to Watch Heading into 2014-15 NBA Training Camp
With the FIBA World Cup winding down, it's finally time to turn our attention to the upcoming 2014-15 NBA season, which is shaping up to be a doozy. Though training camps won't commence until the end of September, the league won't be short on potentially explosive storylines between now and then.
Big-name players could be dangled in trade talks. A few difference-making free agents remain on the market. Behind-the-scenes machinations from the league office could be lurking too.
When the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs tip off the 2014-15 season on Oct. 28, we'll have a bevy of narratives to track. Title contenders will rise and fall, free-agent rumblings could grow louder from certain disgruntled stars and one of the most highly touted rookie classes in recent history will show off its talents on the big stage for the first time.
Certain storylines merit a closer watch over the coming weeks and months—the ones that will have the greatest influence on the short- and/or long-term future of the league. Take a look at 12 such themes to track, ranked accordingly based on their potential to reshape the NBA.
Honorable Mentions
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These three storylines likely won't have much (if any) bearing on the 2015 title race, but they're worth monitoring for the long-term future of the league.
Nerlens Noel's Debut
After missing his entire rookie season to recover from a torn ACL, Philadelphia 76ers big man Nerlens Noel will make his official NBA debut against the Indiana Pacers on Oct. 29.
Noel turned heads during Orlando Summer League in July, averaging 13.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 2.3 steals in just 25.3 minutes per game. The big man "controlled the paint by blocking shots and forcing penetrators to change plans on others," NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper wrote in his post-summer league Rookie Ladder.
The Sixers figure to be (intentionally) miserable in 2014-15, but Noel's presence should provide some modicum of hope to Philadelphia fans. If he's as dominant defensively in the NBA as he was in college—he averaged 4.4 blocks and 2.1 steals per game during his one season at Kentucky—the Defensive Player of the Year voting could become notably more crowded in the coming seasons.
Potential Lottery Reform
In mid-July, Grantland's Zach Lowe reported that the NBA had "submitted an official proposal to reform the [draft] lottery…at competition committee meetings in Las Vegas." According to Lowe, the NBA ditched the proposed "wheel idea" in favor of "a revised weighting system that shifts each team's odds of getting the top pick."
It didn't take long for the backlash to mount, at least from one team. The Sixers voiced a "strong objection" to implementing changes to the draft lottery by next season, per ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst, which, given their long-term rebuilding plan, shouldn't come as a major surprise.
"The 76ers, sources said, are hoping to get the NBA to delay the plan's implementation for at least a year because it would act as a de facto punishment while just playing by the rules that have been in place," Windhorst reported. Though Philadelphia might have the most at stake in these discussions, any potential lottery team should be keeping a close watch on the NBA's behind-the-scenes moves.
The Rookie of the Year Race
Unlike the 2013-14 season, when Sixers point guard Michael Carter-Williams won the Rookie of the Year award almost by default, this coming season should feature no shortage of stellar play from first-year studs.
Howard-Cooper has Noel first on his tentative preseason Rookie Ladder, which is meant to be a projection of the Rookie of the Year race, followed by Chicago Bulls sniper Doug McDermott and Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker. Those aren't the only rookies worth watching this coming season, though.
Los Angeles Lakers big man Julius Randle, Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart, Utah Jazz guard Dante Exum and Minnesota Timberwolves swingman Andrew Wiggins should all make a legitimate push for the Rookie of the Year award. The depth of this year's rookie class will create serious intrigue for voters all season long.
12. Will Any Dark-Horse Contenders Arise in the East?
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On the surface, the Eastern Conference appears to be a two-horse race, with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls far ahead of any other contenders. However, the Washington Wizards, Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors all have the makings of dark-horse contenders capable of knocking off either squad if things break right.
With another year of experience under its belt, the Wizards' star backcourt duo, John Wall and Bradley Beal, could lay waste to opposing guards this coming season. Washington lost swingman Trevor Ariza in free agency but added Boston Celtics legend Paul Pierce in exchange, and second-year forwards Otto Porter Jr. and Glen Rice Jr. appeared vastly improved during Vegas Summer League.
The Raptors, meanwhile, are fresh off their second division title in franchise history and only bolstered their rotation this offseason, adding combo guard Louis Williams, forward James Johnson and center Lucas Nogueira. Between those additions and the re-signing of point guards Kyle Lowry and Greivis Vasquez, Toronto is set up as the clear Atlantic Division favorite this coming season.
Atlanta, which finished as the eighth seed in 2013-14, could end up being the biggest sleeper in the East. The Hawks will get center Al Horford back from a season-ending pectoral injury, while Michigan State forward Adreian Payne, the No. 15 pick in this June's draft, is well equipped to step in and make an immediate impact.
Though Cavs and Bulls fans may be tempted to purchase their Eastern Conference Finals tickets months in advance, the Wizards, Raptors and Hawks have the requisite talent to break up that seemingly predestined matchup.
11. The Battle for the Final Western Conference Playoff Spots
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Once again, the Western Conference is shaping up to be a bloodbath. There's little doubt that an entirely deserving team will miss the postseason, much like the Phoenix Suns in 2013-14.
Barring significant injury, the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers appear to be playoff locks. The Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks should have little difficult sealing up postseason berths, too, leaving three spots open for upwards of a half-dozen potential contenders.
Out of the remaining squads, the Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets seemingly have the best chances of making the playoffs, but the Suns, New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets won't go quietly into the night. Phoenix nearly qualified for the postseason last year before fading late, Anthony Davis could prove to be a one-man wrecking crew in New Orleans and the injury-racked Nuggets should have far better luck with health this coming season.
Other playoff hopefuls might be lurking toward the bottom of the 2013-14 standings too. Kobe Bryant could inspire the Los Angeles Lakers into one final postseason push, or perhaps DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay will revitalize the Sacramento Kings.
There's only one certainty when it comes to the final few spots in the Western Conference postseason race: As unfair as it might seem, 45 wins likely won't be enough to earn a playoff berth.
10. How Good Can the New-Look Hornets Be?
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The days of the newly rebranded Charlotte Hornets being the Eastern Conference's punch line appear to have come to an end.
Signing center Al Jefferson last summer paid off in dividends, as the big man helped guide the then-Bobcats to their second-best record in the past decade. Though Miami swept them in the opening round of the 2014 playoffs, a left foot injury to Jefferson deserves a hefty deal of the blame for Charlotte's swift demise.
This offseason, the Hornets added forward Noah Vonleh and swingman P.J. Hairston in the draft, then signed Indiana Pacers 2-guard Lance Stephenson in free agency. Though forward Josh McRoberts took his talents to South Beach, the additions of Vonleh, Hairston and Stephenson should more than make up for his departure.
Charlotte lacked a true shot-creator beyond Kemba Walker last season, which is where Stephenson should make his biggest mark. With the mercurial shooting guard on the court, opposing guards can't sell out defensively to stop Walker at all costs, which should open up the Hornets offense significantly.
If Stephenson integrates seamlessly into Charlotte's starting lineup, this squad should easily be in contention for a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference. Tracking the Hornets' progress this season will be one of the more fascinating storylines outside of the renewed Cleveland-Chicago rivalry out East.
9. The Post-LeBron Miami Heat
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With LeBron James having returned to Cleveland this summer, it's safe to say the Miami Heat won't be making their fifth straight NBA Finals appearance in 2015. However, it's still far too early to be writing the eulogies of the careers of Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Co.
There's no replacing a four-time league MVP like James, but adding Luol Deng and Josh McRoberts will help Miami blunt the pain to some degree. Deng has long been comfortable as a complementary offensive option and a strong wing defender, while McRoberts' passing skills should allow the Heat not to scrap their entire James-centric game plan.
Realistically, though, the Heat will only go as far as Bosh and Wade can take them. The former slid comfortably into being Miami's No. 3 option during the Big Three era, but before joining the Heat, he was the clear top dog with the Toronto Raptors. If Bosh can return to being a 20-10 threat on a nightly basis, the Heat's transition from LeBron shouldn't necessarily be all that painful.
The 32-year-old Wade is the bigger question mark of the two, having missed 28 games this past season for routine "maintenance." Without James to carry the load for Miami this season, the 10-time All-Star can't afford to miss roughly one-third of the regular season to preserve his body.
If Bosh can tap into his Toronto roots and Wade can take the floor for 70-plus games this season, the Heat should have little trouble qualifying for the playoffs, with an outside shot at a top-four seed. The margin of error is significantly thinner without LeBron, though, meaning the Miami watch should be plenty interesting this year.
8. Are the Dallas Mavericks Title Contenders?
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Three years after detonating their championship core, the Dallas Mavericks appear primed to take a major step back toward title contention this coming season.
Following the Mavs' 2011 title, Dallas owner Mark Cuban allowed center Tyson Chandler to walk in free agency, fearing the repercussions of a yet-to-be-agreed-upon new collective bargaining agreement. He swung and missed on marquee free agents—Deron Williams in 2012, Dwight Howard in 2013—but managed to patch together a scrappy team in the interim.
This past offseason, however, Cuban struck like a viper. After trading floor general Jose Calderon and center Samuel Dalembert to the New York Knicks for Chandler and point guard Raymond Felton, he stole restricted free agent Chandler Parsons from the Houston Rockets with a three-year, $46 million deal.
Between those moves and signing former Orlando Magic point guard Jameer Nelson to a two-year, $5.6 million contract, this year's edition of the Mavericks appears ready to push back into the Western Conference's top tier. While Dallas may sit behind San Antonio, Oklahoma City and the L.A. Clippers for now, the Parsons-Chandler-Dirk Nowitzki-Monta Ellis core should easily compete for 50-55 wins.
To truly emerge as a legitimate title contender, the Mavericks will need to hold their own defensively after conceding 105.9 points per 100 possessions last season, the worst mark of any playoff team. Parsons, Ellis, Nelson and Felton aren't exactly renowned for their defensive acumen; however, Chandler's presence could help clean up some of their mistakes on the less-heralded end of the court.
7. Will Boston Trade Rajon Rondo?
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ESPN Boston's Jackie MacMullan sent the Rajon Rondo rumor mill into overdrive during Labor Day weekend.
In a behind-the-scenes clip for ESPN's Around the Horn, MacMullan claimed Rondo has told the Boston Celtics "he wants out," sparking immediate speculation as to when and where Boston will trade the mercurial point guard. Both Rondo and his agent denied the rumor via a spokeswoman, per the Boston Herald's Mark Murphy, but the writing may be on the wall in terms of his long-term future with the Celtics.
Since Rondo will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2015, the squad could be inclined to move him between now and February's trade deadline to ensure it doesn't lose him for nothing. The problem is, as MacMullan noted on Around the Horn, the teams with the biggest need for Rondo have little to offer Boston in return.
Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley presented an overview of the best potential trade destinations for Rondo, but all are fraught with their own issues. According to MacMullan, Rondo has "already made clear" that he would not re-sign with the Sacramento Kings, while Houston, Dallas and New York seemingly lack the assets to make a deal enticing.
Thus, the Celtics have a major decision on their hands over the coming months. Interested suitors will likely attempt to low-ball Boston (especially at first) given Rondo's impending free agency, which could leave the Celtics stuck choosing between the lesser of two evils.
6. The Rise of 'The Brow'
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If his play during the FIBA World Cup is any indication, New Orleans Pelicans big man Anthony Davis is primed to take over the NBA in the coming years.
As a sophomore this past season, Davis finished with per-game averages of 20.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and a league-high 2.8 blocks. He's just one of five players in the last 30 years to post those averages within the first two seasons of his career, joining Alonzo Mourning, Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon.
With Davis' burgeoning offensive repertoire and Dhalsim-esque limbs, ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh recently declared the 2014-15 season to be the Year of Anthony Davis (subscription required). Fox Sports' Jimmy Spencer tabbed Davis as a dark-horse Most Valuable Player candidate this coming season, "just like every other NBA writer right now."
However, for him to garner legitimate MVP consideration, the Pelicans will need to make substantive strides this coming season. The last time a player won the MVP on a sub-55-win team (other than in the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season) was 2005-06, when point guard Steve Nash took it home despite the Phoenix Suns' 54-28 record.
Injuries were largely responsible for the Pelicans tumbling to a 34-win season in 2013-14, as Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Davis played a grand total of 90 minutes together. If they're able to avoid the injury bug this coming season, the Pelicans should piece together at least 45 wins, with The Brow pushing his way into full-blown superstar status.
5. Kobe Bryant's Last Act
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Does Kobe Bryant have one final surprise up his sleeve as he enters the twilight of his career?
That's the question surrounding the Los Angeles Lakers this season, as the Black Mamba returns from a season-ending fracture of the lateral tibial plateau in his left knee. Bryant suffered the injury just six games after returning from a torn Achilles tendon, raising concerns about the 36-year-old's durability moving forward.
In the six games he played last season, Kobe averaged 13.8 points, 6.3 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 5.7 turnovers in 29.5 minutes per game. As evidenced by his sky-high turnover rate—he averaged 29.2 giveaways per 100 plays—the 16-time All-Star was clearly focusing on facilitating more than he ever had before.
The Lakers significantly upgraded their surrounding talent this summer, adding Julius Randle in the draft and Carlos Boozer, Ed Davis and Jeremy Lin through waivers, free agency and a trade, respectively. Pau Gasol's departure leaves L.A. somewhat thin at the 5, but the new additions should help command significant defensive attention away from Kobe.
Given the depth of the Western Conference, it's unlikely the Lakers will truly contend for a playoff berth this coming season. That said, Bryant could always defy Father Time and explode for one more monster year, putting a fitting end on an otherwise illustrious career.
4. Derrick Rose's Return 2.0
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Ten games into his return from a torn ACL last year, Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose went down with a season-ending meniscus tear. A second straight substantial leg injury cast doubt over whether we'd ever see the "old" Derrick Rose—the guy who became the youngest-ever MVP winner—again.
This summer, we've seen flashes of that version of Rose during his time with Team USA in the FIBA World Cup. During Team USA training camp, head coach Mike Krzyzewski told reporters that the Bulls floor general was "better than four years ago," while assistant coach Jim Boeheim said he was "the most impressive guy here."
Rose himself told reporters that his game is "totally different" and that his time with Team USA can help him "actually become a better leader." Though it remains to be seen how he handles the rigors of an 82-game season—or, more importantly, whether he can make it through the entire year without a major injury—knocking the rust off this summer should ease his return to NBA action.
If Rose can stay healthy, the Bulls are set to renew their long-standing rivalry with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Though Chicago struck out on adding Carmelo Anthony in free agency, the team added sharpshooter Doug McDermott in the draft, brought over 2011 first-round pick Nikola Mirotic from Real Madrid and inked Pau Gasol and Aaron Brooks in free agency.
LeBron James and the Cavaliers will enter the season as the favorites in the Eastern Conference, but Rose and the Bulls won't be far behind. Assuming the soon-to-be 26-year-old floor general dodges the injury bug for the first time in three years, a Cavs-Bulls playoff series could go a long way toward determining the 2015 NBA champion.
3. Can the San Antonio Spurs Repeat?
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Fresh off winning the 2014 NBA championship, the San Antonio Spurs had a flawless offseason.
They drafted Boris Diaw clone Kyle Anderson with the No. 30 pick in June's draft, re-signed Diaw and point guard Patty Mills Jr. to team-friendly deals in free agency and inked floor general Tony Parker to a three-year, $43.3 million contract extension. San Antonio also hired legendary European head coach Ettore Messina and six-time WNBA All-Star Becky Hammon as assistant coaches, giving head coach Gregg Popovich a plethora of riches on his staff.
Though Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili remain locked in a battle with Father Time, neither player showed signs of slowing down last season. The depth amassed on this Spurs roster allows Popovich to limit his older stars' minutes during the regular season, keeping them fresh for yet another deep playoff run.
The Spurs once again appear predestined to grind out 55-60 wins and earn a top-three seed in the Western Conference, all the while flying under the radar. There's one thing San Antonio hasn't done in the Popovich-Duncan era, however: repeat as NBA champions.
Given that they're returning the same group that won this past June, the Spurs clearly have the makeup of a legitimate title contender this coming season. Can they emerge from the bloodbath that will be the Western Conference playoffs and outlast the East champion for the second straight year? That remains to be seen.
2. Will Kevin Durant and OKC Crumble Under Pressure?
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Reigning MVP Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder will enter the 2014-15 season under more pressure than ever before.
Two years ago, the Thunder were the darlings of the NBA. Despite falling to the Miami Heat in five games during the 2012 Finals, Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden appeared poised to become the league's next dominant Big Three.
Later that year, however, the Thunder shipped Harden to the Houston Rockets as the two sides couldn't reach an agreement on a contract extension. Two crippling injuries—a torn meniscus for Westbrook in 2013 and a calf strain for Serge Ibaka this past May—submarined OKC's playoff runs in each of the past two seasons.
Now, with Durant set to become an unrestricted free agent following the 2015-16 season, the pressure has ratcheted up on the Thunder. If they're unable to deliver a title within the next two years, the odds of KD developing a wandering eye could rise substantially.
"Two years straight, that would be cool. It would definitely be tough to do anything," Durant told reporters during his brief stint with Team USA, when asked how the Thunder winning titles would influence his free-agency decision. "That's one of those things where you're building a dynasty now, you win two in a row."
Whenever the Thunder hit a rough patch this season—especially if the oft-referenced chemistry concerns between Durant and Westbrook rear their ugly head—chatter about KD's impending free agency will crop up. How OKC responds to that pressure will be one of the most seminal storylines of the 2014-15 season.
1. Can LeBron Bring a Title to Cleveland?
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Was there any doubt which storyline would rank atop this list?
The minute LeBron James announced he'd be returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers, a championship contender arose from seemingly nowhere. When Cleveland traded Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett and a future first-round pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves for All-Star forward Kevin Love, the Cavs went from contender to title favorite, per OddsShark.com.
James wasn't able to deliver a title to Cleveland in the first seven years of his career, but there's a major difference in having Love and Kevin Irving as sidekicks instead of Mo Williams and a washed-up Antawn Jamison. The Cavaliers have constructed a Big Three that rivals what James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh created in Miami four summers ago.
Cleveland made a handful of sharp ancillary moves as well, signing James Jones, Mike Miller and Shawn Marion to below-market deals. Legendary sharpshooter Ray Allen could be next, per ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard, assuming he decides to play for a 19th season instead of retiring.
As the 2010-11 Heat taught us, however, constructing a championship team isn't just a matter of amassing talent. It often takes months to develop the chemistry and cohesion required of a title-winning squad, which means the Cavaliers aren't likely to steamroll their way to the 2015 Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Cleveland clearly enters the season on the short list of top title contenders, alongside the Spurs, Thunder, Bulls and Los Angeles Clippers. Thus, no storyline deserves more attention in 2014-15 than how quickly the Cavaliers coalesce, especially with Love and LeBron eligible to become free agents next summer.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com/stats.
