NBA Predictions 2012-13: Highlights from NBA's Annual Poll of General Managers

The NBA's annual general-manager poll asks questions ranging from "Who will win the 2012-13 MVP?" to "Which player makes the most of limited natural ability?"

Whether the front-office bosses are showing their respect for LeBron James or paying Kevin Love a backhanded compliment by saying he's pretty good for a guy who can't jump, the poll provides interesting answers and has surprising predictive value. 

The GMs answered questions in seven different categories that addressed their predictions, as well as their evaluations of players across the league and offseason moves. 

The full poll results can be found via NBA.com. Here are the highlights from this year's answers.

Predictions

The general managers had the Miami Heat beating the Oklahoma City Thunder last season and picked all six division winners correctly. Here is how they see things panning out this year.

NBA Champion

1. Miami—70.0% 
2. L.A. Lakers—23.3% 
3. Oklahoma City—6.7%

No surprises here, and there is plenty more love shown to LeBron James and the Heat in this poll. James' performance in the playoffs last season was frightening, and with sharpshooters Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis joining the team, it seems impossible that any team will take them down. 

Eastern Conference Champion

1. Miami—96.7% 
2. Boston—3.3%

That 3.3 percent is equal to one vote, but GMs are not allowed to vote for their own teams or players. It appears Danny Ainge has a secret admirer. 

Western Conference Champion

1. L.A. Lakers—60.0% 
2. Oklahoma City—36.7% 
3. Denver—3.3%

With more diversity of opinion in the West, the GMs still favor championship experience over youth and energy. Hopefully they are correct, as a Miami vs. Los Angeles Finals series would be incredibly entertaining. 

Division Winners

Atlantic: Boston

Central: Indiana

Southeast: Miami

Southwest: San Antonio

Northwest: Oklahoma City

Pacific: Los Angeles Lakers

Players

Last year's pick for MVP was Kevin Durant, and LeBron James proved the general managers wrong. This year, James is the GMs' pick for the league's most prestigious individual award, and Durant will be motivated to make them all look bad once again. 

MVP

1. LeBron James, Miami—66.7% 
2. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City—30.0% 
3. Carmelo Anthony, New York—3.3%

If LeBron wins the MVP award again this year, it will be the fourth of his career. He will join Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain as the only players ever to win more than three MVPs. There were few signs last season that suggest he will not dominate the league once again this year. 

Player Most Likely to Have a Breakout Season

1. Klay Thompson, Golden State—13.3% 
2. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland; Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio—10.0% 
4. Paul George, Indiana; James Harden, Oklahoma City—6.7%

There were 24 players who received votes for this question, but these five were the most popular. Harden was last year's choice, and the GMs appear to favor smooth-shooting 2-guards in this category. 

Best Players at Each Position

Best PG: Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers

Best SG: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers

Best SF: LeBron James, Miami

Best PF: Kevin Love, Minnesota

Best C: Dwight Howard, Los Angeles Lakers

Every player except Kevin Love won the vote by a large margin. Dirk Nowitzki received 23.3 percent of votes, compared to 30 percent for Love. In addition, 16.7 percent of GMs believe LeBron James is better than both players at the 4 spot. 

Dwight Howard won his position by the largest margin, taking 93.3 percent of votes. Sorry, Shaq, Andrew Bynum is not the best center in the NBA. This may be why the Orlando Magic did not chose the former center as its new general manager. 

Offseason Moves

With an offseason packed with player movement, there was plenty for the general managers to consider when answering these questions. Here are their opinions on Dwight Howard and everyone else. 

Best Overall Moves

1. L.A. Lakers—86.2% 
2. Brooklyn—6.9%

These were the two teams that truly made headlines during the offseason, but the Lakers now have four possible Hall of Famers in their lineup. The GMs got this one completely right. 

Acquisition That Will Make the Biggest Impact

1. Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers—70.0% 
2. Steve Nash, L.A. Lakers—20.0%

Adding the best center in basketball to a roster chock-full of talent was a bold move, and it will certainly pay off. 

Most Underrated Acquisition

1. Andre Iguodala, Denver—16.7% 
2. Jason Terry, Boston—13.3% 
3. Courtney Lee, Boston—10.0% 
4. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans; Andrei Kirilenko, Minnesota; Brandon Roy, Minnesota; Lou Williams, Atlanta—6.7%

Denver is a team full of excellent role players. Adding the best role player in the league was an ideal move, and more GMs should have given the Nuggets their vote for this move. 

Team That Will Be Most Improved

1. Brooklyn—62.1% 
2. L.A. Lakers, Minnesota—10.3% 
4. New Orleans—6.9%

If the Nets can stay healthy, they will go from a lottery team to one of the top teams in the East. No team will make a more a drastic turnaround. 

Most Surprising Move

1. Steve Nash to the Lakers—39.3% 
2. Bynum/Howard/Iguodala trade—17.9% 
3. Knicks not matching Jeremy Lin offer—14.3% 
4. Ray Allen to Miami, Joe Johnson to Brooklyn -- 10.7%

While Nash certainly angered many Suns fans by going to a division rival, Ray Allen moving to the Heat after the bitter playoff battles those two teams have fought should have received more votes. 

Rookies and International

A more appropriate name for this category would be "Anthony Davis and International," as the GMs chose the No. 1 pick in every category they could. 

Rookie of the Year

1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans—76.7% 
2. Damian Lillard, Portland—20.0% 
3. Austin Rivers, New Orleans—3.3%

Davis was far and away the most talented prospect in the draft, and he will come into the season facing high expectations. If he doesn't win this award, his year will ultimately be a disappointment. 

Rookie Who Will Be the Best Player in 5 Years

1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans—86.7% 
2. Bradley Beal, Washington—6.7%

With Davis' length, size and skill set, it seems impossible at this point that he will not outperform his peers down the road. 

Best International Player

1. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas—72.4% 
2. Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers—10.3%

Until someone figures out how to stop the one-legged fadeaway, this is exactly how this question should be answered.

Best International Player Not in the NBA

1. Juan Carlos Navarro—34.6% 
2. Nikola Mirotic—11.5% 
3. Dimitris Diamantidis, Rudy Fernandez, Bo McCalebb, Dario Saric—7.7%

After Navarro's epic shooting performance in the Olympics, he certainly deserves credit from NBA GMs.

Defense

The general managers did not change their opinion from last year, with each top answer staying the same. These players and teams have shown a commitment to playing hard on the defensive end of the floor, and there is an excellent chance the GMs will have the same answers next year as well. 

Best Defensive Player

1. Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers—60.0% 
2. LeBron James, Miami—16.7% 
3. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City—13.3%

If Howard remains healthy, he is unquestionably the most dominant defensive force in basketball. He is certainly the favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. 

Best Perimeter Defender

1. Tony Allen, Memphis—33.3% 
2. LeBron James, Miami—26.7% 
3. Avery Bradley, Boston; Andre Iguodala, Denver; Rajon Rondo, Boston; Thabo Sefolosha, Oklahoma City—6.7%

Allen is a relentless on-ball defender and can frustrate even the most potent scorers. He is truly a defensive ace and deserves the recognition. 

Best Interior Defender

1. Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers—66.7% 
2. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City—16.7% 
3. Tyson Chandler, New York—10.0%

If Howard stays on the court all year long, he will remind GMs that there is no debate in this category, and there will be fewer front-office bosses voting for other players in next year's poll. 

Best Defensive Team

1. Chicago—40.0% 
2. Miami—26.7% 
3. Boston—23.3% 
4. L.A. Lakers—6.7% 
5. San Antonio—3.3%

Miami's athleticism makes it frightening on defense, but no team in the league plays as well together as Chicago. Regardless of who is on the floor for the Bulls, opponents have to work for each and every point.

Coaches

This category turned into a Gregg Popovich love-fest, but after the success he has had, it's hard to blame the GMs for heaping praise on the San Antonio Spurs' head coach. 

Best Head Coach

1. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio—80.0% 
2. Doc Rivers, Boston—13.3%

The difference between a well-coached team and a poorly coached one was on full display last postseason when the Spurs took on Vinny Del Negro and the Los Angeles Clippers. It was a perfect illustration of how much of a difference an elite coach can make. 

Best Offensive Coach

1. George Karl, Denver—31.0% 
2. Rick Adelman, Minnesota; Gregg Popovich, San Antonio—27.6% 
4. Scott Brooks, Oklahoma City; Alvin Gentry, Phoenix—6.9%

The votes were essentially split between Karl, Adelman and Popovich, and this is exactly how this poll should have gone to give credit to the league's best offensive minds. 

Best Defensive Coach 

1. Tom Thibodeau, Chicago—70.0% 
2. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio—10.0% 
3. Mike Brown, L.A. Lakers; Rick Carlisle, Dallas—6.7%

There is no doubt about who is the best defensive coach in basketball, and Thibodeau deserves even more than 70 percent of the vote. 

Player Who Will Make the Best Coach

1. Chauncey Billups, L.A. Clippers—20.7% 
2. Shane Battier, Miami—17.2% 
3. Derek Fisher—13.8% 
4. Jason Kidd, New York; Steve Nash, L.A. Lakers—10.3% 
6. Grant Hill, L.A. Clippers; Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers—6.9%

Billups is an excellent pick to lead this category, and he will do extremely well when he trades his jersey for a suit and a spot on the sidelines. 

Miscellaneous

This category was reserved for all sorts of random topics, most of which dealt with specific player attributes. There was a wide range of both questions and answers. 

Team That is Most Fun to Watch

1. Oklahoma City—30.0% 
2. Miami—26.7% 
3. Denver—16.7% 
4. Golden State, L.A. Clippers, San Antonio—6.7%

It is nice to see that GMs are like most NBA fans and love to watch fast-paced offenses. 

Most Athletic Player

1. LeBron James, Miami—62.1% 
2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City—20.7% 
3. Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers—13.8% 
4. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City—3.4%

The only surprising part of the answers to this question is that James did not receive a higher percentage of the votes. 

Best Pure Shooter

1. Ray Allen, Miami—56.7% 
2. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City—20.0% 
3. Steve Novak, New York—6.7%

Allen still owns this category, but NBA fans won't mind seeing a few more Discount Double-Checks from Novak this year. 

Best at Getting His Own Shot

1. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers—40.0% 
2. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City—30.0% 
3. LeBron James, Miami—16.7% 
4. Carmelo Anthony, New York; Dwyane Wade, Miami—6.7%

Bryant's offensive arsenal has grown continuously throughout his career, and he even used Nowitizki's fadeaway move several times last season. Who knows what new move Bryant added during this offseason?

Best Passer

1. Steve Nash, L.A. Lakers—58.6% 
2. Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers—27.6% 
3. Rajon Rondo, Boston; Deron Williams, Brooklyn—6.9%

While Rondo racks up gaudy assist numbers, Nash's vision and flair when distributing is simply unparalleled.

Most Dangerous in the Open Floor

1. LeBron James, Miami—60.0% 
2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City—23.3% 
3. Derrick Rose, Chicago—10.0% 
4. Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers—6.7% 

Whether GMs believed they were choosing the player most likely to score in the open floor or the player most likely to injure anyone standing in his way on a fast break, James is the clear choice. 

Best Leader

1. Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers—27.6% 
2. Kevin Garnett, Boston—20.7% 
3. Chauncey Billups, L.A. Clippers; Tim Duncan, San Antonio; LeBron James, Miami; Steve Nash, L.A. Lakers—10.3%

Kobe Bryant did not receive a vote in this category. This is certainly a telling sign about how GMs view Bryant's attitude. 

Player You Want Taking a Game-Winning Shot

1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City—46.7% 
2. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers—40.0% 
3. Carmelo Anthony, New York—6.7%

LeBron did receive a vote on this question, but the overwhelming majority of GMs would put the ball in someone else's hands.