Why This Year's Tigers Would Fare Better vs. Cardinals Than 2006 Team

The Detroit Tigers are headed down a familiar road.

Just as they were six years ago, the Tigers are in the World Series after finishing off a clean sweep in the American League Championship Series. All they can do now is wait to see who they'll be playing.

If things go the way they're expected to go, the Tigers will be matched up against the same team they played in the 2006 World Series: none other than the St. Louis Cardinals.

All the Cardinals have to do to secure a rematch against the Tigers is beat the San Francisco Giants in either Game 6 or 7.

Given the way this Cardinals team is constructed, they could do to the Tigers exactly what they did to them back in 2006.

That boils down to one word: ownage. 

The 2006 World Series was decidedly one-sided from the very beginning, and the Cardinals clinched it with a victory in Game 5 in front of some 46,000 screaming fans at Busch Stadium.

The good news for the Tigers is that the 2006 World Series may as well be ancient history. There aren't many players on the current team who were there to experience it, and the Cardinals are a much different team as well. A matchup between the two clubs this year would be considerably different from the matchup between the two teams back in 2006.

And this is further good news for the Tigers, for this year's club is a better match for the Cardinals than the 2006 Tigers ever were. This year's Tigers team would fare much better against the Cardinals if they end up meeting them in the World Series.

Here's why.

Significantly Better Starting Pitching

My guess is that a lot of people don't remember the 2006 Tigers as being any sort of pitching powerhouse. Justin Verlander was a talented rookie back then, and Kenny Rogers won 17 games with a 3.83 ERA, but their rotation that year doesn't exactly rank among the all-time greats.

You may be surprised to hear, then, that the Tigers actually led all of baseball with a starters' ERA of an even 4.00 in 2006. Their starters also won a league-high 75 games, for whatever that's worth.

However, Detroit's starting rotation was revealed to be what it really was in the 2006 World Series at the hands of the Cardinals. The Cardinals ousted Detroit's rotation as a collection of quality arms, but nothing more than that. 

Verlander posted a 5.73 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in the two starts he made in the World Series. Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson both pitched reasonably well, but they combined to give the Tigers only 10.1 innings while giving up 11 hits and seven walks. 

The only Detroit starter who pitched well in the World Series was Rogers, who won Game 2 with eight shutout innings in which he only gave up two hits.

The Tigers are returning to the World Series with a much better rotation this time around. Detroit starters ranked eighth in baseball with an ERA of 3.76 during the regular season, and they've been far better than that in the postseason.

In nine games, Detroit's starters have pitched a total of 62 innings and have allowed a grand total of seven earned runs in these playoffs. That equates to an ERA of 1.02.

That's impressive enough in and of itself. Now consider the fact that the Tigers faced a team in the Oakland A's that led the American League in runs and homers after the All-Star break, and a New York Yankees squad that set a franchise record for home runs this year. Tigers starters treated them like they were little leaguers.

We know for a fact that the Tigers have at least one elite pitcher in their rotation. Verlander was an out-of-gas rookie when the Tigers went to the World Series in 2006, and now he's the best pitcher in baseball in the eyes of many (mine included). He won 17 games with a 2.64 ERA and an AL-high 239 strikeouts during the regular season, and so far in the postseason he has a 0.74 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP.

Verlander's not the only one who has been rolling over opposing hitters in the postseason. Doug Fister has a 1.35 ERA. Anibal Sanchez also has a 1.35 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP to go with it. Max Scherzer has a 0.82 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP, and he's struck out 18 hitters in only 11 innings. He had a no-hitter going through five innings in Game 4 of the ALCS.

This rotation promises to be doubly tough on this year's Cardinals team if it finds itself in the World Series with the Tigers. Their lineup is more balanced than most, but key hitters like Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, Yadier Molina, David Freese and Pete Kozma (yes, he's a key hitter now) all swing from the right side of the plate.

Per FanGraphs, no AL pitchers were tougher on right-handers in 2012 than Verlander and Scherzer. Though he didn't log as many innings as either of them, Fister was a righty-killer as well, holding them to a .220/.297/.314 triple-slash line.

There's not a question in my mind that this year's Cardinals are a better team than the Tigers on paper. Their starting pitching isn't as good, but they have a deeper offense and they certainly have a much deeper bullpen.

Though the Tigers have played sound defense in the postseason, the defensive edge between them and the Cardinals also goes to St. Louis. The Cardinals weren't perfect in the field this season, but they did finish with a plus-13 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), according to FanGraphs. The Tigers finished with a minus-32 DRS.

However, excellent starting pitching is the kind of thing that can cancel out any of the advantages the other team may have. The Giants proved as much in 2010 when their starting pitchers mowed down the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies and then posted an ERA of 2.38 against the Texas Rangers in the World Series.

From top to bottom, the Rangers were a better team than the Giants in 2010. But in the end, all their firepower was rendered moot by the likes of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner.

Verlander, Fister, Sanchez and Scherzer could do the same thing to the Cardinals. They were one of the top offensive teams in the league during the regular season and have been the best offensive team in this postseason, but the thunder in their bats could be easily overruled by the fire in the Tigers' arms.

Detroit's own offense will have to pick up its end of the slack, to be sure, but that's a bell we know that at least a couple Tigers hitters are capable of answering.

Presence of Elite Hitters

Statistically, the 2006 Tigers were a quality offensive team. They finished fifth in the AL in runs scored, and third in home runs with 203.

Detroit's power in 2006 didn't come from a couple primary sources. It came from all over. The Tigers had eight players finish with double-digit home runs, including four—Craig Monroe, Brandon Inge, Marcus Thames and Magglio Ordonez—who finished with over 20 home runs.

The 2006 Tigers certainly had a deep offense, but one thing they lacked was a truly elite hitter. Magglio Ordonez was quite good in the postseason, but he only posted an .827 OPS in the regular season. The only Tigers hitter to post an OPS over .900 in 2006 was Carlos Guillen, and there was surely a limit to how dangerous he could be with a bat in his hands.

The "elite hitter" category is one where the 2012 Tigers are a little different. They have at least two hitters who can be fairly called elite without a ton of justification.

No argument is needed where Miguel Cabrera is concerned. He enjoyed the first Triple Crown season in 45 years by leading the league with a .330 average, 44 homers and 139 RBI. More importantly—yes, more—Cabrera led the AL in key sabermetric stats like OPS, wOBA and wRC+, according to FanGraphs.

There is no hitter in baseball better than Cabrera, plain and simple. When it comes to hitting, he's the gold standard. 

He was forced to do it while hiding in Cabrera's shadow, but Prince Fielder also had an excellent season. He finished second in the AL to Joe Mauer with an OBP of .412, and fourth with an OPS of .940. He didn't show off as much power as he has in the past, but Fielder still managed to hit 30 home runs in his first season as a Tiger.

Cabrera and Fielder have been largely held in check in the postseason to this point, as they have only two homers and eight RBI between them. However, this can be chalked up to the fact that neither of them has gotten much to hit, and for good reason. Whenever Detroit is getting great pitching, tempting Cabrera and Fielder with hittable pitches is as stupid as stupid gets. 

The Cardinals will have to dance around Cabrera and Fielder in their own way if they meet the Tigers in the World Series, much like they're currently dancing around Buster Posey in the NLCS. With Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval struggling, the Cardinals have every excuse not to test the NL's best hitter in 2012.

If the Cardinals come up against the Tigers, however, Cabrera and Fielder won't be the only hitters they'll have to dance around. There's at least one more they'd have to be worried about.

He's often overlooked, but Austin Jackson is a dangerous hitter in his own right. He hit an even .300 with a .377 OBP during the regular season, and he just touched up the Yankees to the tune of a .353 average and a 1.127 OPS in the ALCS.

Jackson's combination of power, speed and patience makes him one of the top leadoff men in the business, so the Cardinals would have to proceed with caution with him lest they set things up too nicely for Cabrera and Fielder.

And after the ALCS he just enjoyed, I suppose Delmon Young belongs in the "dangerous hitter" discussion as well. He found himself up with runners on base time and again in the ALCS against the Yankees, and he came through with a 1.186 OPS and six RBI. If he can continue to hit well out of the No. 5 spot in Leyland's order, the Cardinals could start to challenge Cabrera and Fielder more than they otherwise would have.

On paper, there's no denying that Detroit's offense is weaker this year than it was in 2006. The Tigers scored fewer runs than the woebegone Red Sox this year, and Cabrera and Fielder accounted for about 45 percent of their home runs.

But Detroit's offense is plenty good enough to support the kind of pitching the club is getting these days. And in Cabrera and Fielder, the Tigers have at least two hitters (hint: one more than the Giants) who can handle whatever the Cardinals may throw at them. Jackson and Young could also give them plenty of headaches.

You can rest assured that Cabrera, Fielder and the rest of Detroit's players are chomping at the bit to get to work in the World Series. And this time around, they're not going to let a long layoff soften them up.

They Won't Let the Layoff Affect Them

When the Tigers went to the World Series in 2006, they went through the same experience that thousands of kids go through at theme parks every day. They were very excited to be going, but then they had to wait, and wait and wait.

And wait.

The 2006 Tigers clinched the ALCS on October 14. The first game of the World Series was played a week later on October 21. All the while, they were (presumably) just sitting around and twiddling their thumbs.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, wrapped up their NLCS matchup against the New York Mets by winning Game 7 on October 19. They only had to wait two days before the World Series arrived.

It's no surprise, in retrospect, that they won it as easily as they did. They certainly looked like they were more ready for battle than the Tigers were. They had shiny armor and everything.

The Tigers could walk into the exact same trap this year if they're not careful. They wrapped up the ALCS on Thursday, and now they have to wait five full days for the World Series to begin on Wednesday.

Don't worry, Tigers fans. The word coming down the pipeline is that the Tigers aren't going to allow themselves to walk into this trap. 

"I think we learned our lesson from 2006 and we'll approach things a little differently this time," said 2006 World Series veteran Justin Verlander, via the Detroit Free Press.

It's not just the mindset that's going to be different in Detroit this time around. Leyland said on ESPN's  "Mike and Mike in the Morning" show on Friday that the Tigers are going to go all-out with their preparation as well.

Via the Free Press:

"

If you remember, in 2006, we sat around a week before we played... and we were pretty bad in the World Series. So we actually have our instructional league team coming to Detroit and we're going to play a couple of actual games Sunday and Monday and have an actual workout as well, so we'll have our pitchers throw to hitters and have our hitters face live pitching. So hopefully we'll be a little more prepared this time.

"

Will any of this stuff work?

Obviously, that remains to be seen. What we know for the time being is that actually playing a couple of practice games and having pitchers throw to hitters can only help. Activities such as these are certainly preferable to just sitting around and waiting for the World Series to arrive.

That's what the Tigers did six years ago, and it clearly had an effect on them. They weren't sharp in the World Series. Had it not been for Kenny Rogers, they may have been swept.

Whether they end up with a rematch against the Cardinals or a matchup against the Giants on their hands, the Tigers will be much sharper this time around.

Final Thoughts

This year's Tigers team certainly has its flaws, and they're obvious to the point where they're quite easy to locate.

Their bullpen isn't very good, and it almost feels like the Tigers are operating a man down now that Jose Valverde is in Leyland's doghouse (and deservedly so). This is something that could cost them in the World Series.

Offensively, the Tigers have two of the game's best hitters and two other dangerous hitters in Jackson and Young, but their lineup isn't particularly deep. This is another thing that could cost them in the World Series.

Defensively, the Tigers are on the wrong side of average. Tigers fans know quite well that poor defense bit the Tigers time and again during the regular season. It's something that could certainly bite them again in the World Series, perhaps to their doom.

All this being said, Detroit's chances of actually winning the World Series this time around are quite good. Even if the Tigers find themselves matched up the locked-and-loaded Cardinals, revenge will very much be in order.

As I noted before, excellent starting pitching can level pretty much any playing field. At worst, Cabrera and Fielder would force Cardinals pitchers into being careful. At best, they would destroy Cardinals pitchers.

Yes, the layoff is a concern, but not as much of a concern as it was last time. The Tigers know what not to do this time around. 

I'll refrain from making a pick until the matchup is set in stone, but for now I can at least say this about a potential Tigers vs. Cardinals World Series:

It would be competitive this time.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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