Peyton Manning: Signs Manning Can Lead Denver Broncos to AFC West Title
John Elway and the Denver Broncos placed their immediate NFL future and their Super Bowl hopes on the shoulders of Peyton Manning when they signed him this summer and chose to trade away Tim Tebow, who led them to an AFC West title last season.
This kind of pressure is nothing new for Manning. In the past, he helped in leading the once hapless Indianapolis Colts to two Super Bowls, winning one.
Now that he has taken the reigns of the Denver Broncos offense, expect him to build on the success of his predecessor, Tim Tebow. Last year, while Manning recovered from multiple neck procedures, Tebow led the Broncos to a 7-4 record in the final two-thirds of the season, earning Denver the AFC West title with an 8-8 record.
With the San Diego Chargers off to a 3-2 start, the division race will be anything but easy.
Here we will look at the reasons why Peyton Manning is the guy for the job.
Passing Efficiency
1 of 4While the old adage may contend that "defense wins championships," passing—at least in recent years—is what wins games.
Last year, the Denver Broncos were decidedly average, finishing with an 8-8 record. They were reliant on their running game (powered by Tim Tebow and Willis McGahee) to win the battle for time of possession, enabling their defense to keep opposing teams' scores low.
Under Tebow's leadership, the Broncos were best in the league in rushing, averaging 164.5 yards per game. Additionally, they were among the worst in the league in both passing yards (31st) and scoring (25th).
In contrast, Manning has Denver in the top 10 in both passing yards (fifth) and scoring (ninth). The running game, sans Tebow, is average 101.2 yards per game (17th).
Peyton Manning is currently second in the NFL in Total QBR with a rating of 80.5.
If you punch in the numbers and do the math, his passing efficiency after five games is 101.22. That isn't far off from his brother's efficiency of 103.28 during his impressive run through the playoffs en route to the Super Bowl championship last year.
The math whizzes at Advanced NFL Stats suggest that passing does, indeed, directly relate to winning. Using graphical charts (that you can see here), they state:
""...if you look at only the points at or above the 10-win line, where the playoff teams typically reside, the graphs tell very different stories. Teams with 10 or more wins are no more likely to have strong running games than weak or even extremely weak running efficiency. In contrast, the teams with at least 10 wins are far more likely to have had above-average passing efficiency."
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This bodes well for Manning and the Broncos.
Favorable Scheduling
2 of 4Having started the season 2-3 during a rough five game opening stretch, the Denver Broncos can look forward to being the beneficiaries of favorable second-half scheduling.
While rating out as the fourth toughest schedule (according to Beyond the Bets), the Broncos have already gotten their toughest stretch, mostly non-divisional games, out of the way.
In the first five games of the season, the Broncos have gone 1-3 against non-divisional foes. They won their opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers and lost close games—both by six points—to the unbeaten Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons before their 10-point loss to the Patriots in Week 5.
Only four of their remaining 11 games are against opponents who currently have winning records. All seven of their other games feature teams who have only won one game or less.
Of the games that they have against winning teams, two of those are the divisional rival San Diego Chargers, with whom they split the 2011 season series under the less-than-spectacular passer Tim Tebow.
Fans should expect nothing worse than a season split again this year, with Manning at the helm.
The trickiest game to predict among those against teams with bad records: New Orleans.
Drew Brees is playing great again and the Saints will be playing extra hard to salvage a season that saw them start 0-4.
But the Saints defense can be described as porous at best. They have not been able to stop—or even slow down—anybody. If the Broncos can get a few stops on defense, they should be looking at a home victory over Brees and the Saints at Mile High.
Broncos Schedule |
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| |
WK | TEAM |
| WK | TEAM |
6 | San Diego Chargers |
| 12 | |
7 | BYE |
| 13 | TAMPA BAY BUCS |
8 | NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
| 14 | |
9 |
| 15 | ||
10 |
| 16 | CLEVELAND BROWNS | |
11 | SAN DIEGO CHARGERS |
| 17 | KANSAS CITY CHIEFS |
Willis McGahee Resurgence
3 of 4Last year, Willis McGahee and the Denver Broncos rushing attack experienced a Renaissance with Tim Tebow at the helm. Even with nine-man fronts, thanks in large part to blocking schemes and respect for Tebow's ability to run, McGahee managed to have a great year running the ball.
This year, he is on his own. Through five weeks, McGahee is 12th in the league with 376 yards rushing.
As Manning continues to get stronger and build more of a rapport with Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, the Broncos should expect to see opponents show more nickel and dime coverages. As such, look for McGahee to see increased touches.
Additionally, look for the Broncos and McGahee to see success running against a handful of their remaining opponents.
Among their remaining 11 opponents, Denver faces only 3 games against top-ranked rush defenses (two against San Diego; one against Tampa Bay).
Except for Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, all of their remaining opponents rank in the bottom 12 in rushing yards allowed. In such games, expect head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Mike McCoy to open up the playbook to make greater use of the running game.
As long as he stays healthy, this should be another 1,200+ yard season for Willis McGahee.
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Season Expectation
4 of 4Considering all of the variables—the efficiency of Peyton Manning, the favorable remaining schedule and the expectation for more production from running back Willis McGahee—this year's Broncos can expect to go 7-1 in eight of their remaining games.
That puts them at 9-5.
Their season, the AFC West title, and (possibly) the playoffs all hinge on the results of two games.
Just two games.
Week 6 at San Diego and Week 11 hosting the Chargers.
A season split, and they probably still make the playoffs, but may not win the division—as they may not fare well with tie-breakers that rely on conference wins and losses.
Should they sweep the Chargers, the expectation is easy: they win the division.
In Week 5, Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints exposed the Chargers defensive inability to effectively defend the pass. The Chargers rank 21st in passing yards allowed and 27th in passing touchdowns allowed, having given up 11 this season.
Peyton Manning should fare well throwing the ball against the Chargers.
While both games may be close, if passing efficiency does indeed correlate to wins, then the stats favor Peyton Manning over Philip Rivers—pass efficiency of 93.13.
Start making your bets now.
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