MLB Playoff Race: Baltimore Orioles Primed to Win AL East

Baltimore Orioles: 2012 AL East Champions?

The MLB world—and world in general for that matter—surely isn’t prepared to hear such a normally outlandish statement. I may not be either.

Aside from falling to third place in 2008 (despite winning 89 games), the New York Yankees have not finished lower than second, let alone missed the playoffs in the past two decades. Baltimore, meanwhile, has finished third or better just once and have not made the playoffs in the past 15 years.

In 2012, however, things will conclude entirely differently. The Orioles will find themselves in first place in the standings while the Yankees will be relegated to wild-card status.

The first factor in the Orioles’ favor is their second-half record. They’re 12 games above .500 at 31-19, as opposed to just five over in the first half (45-40). They went on a tear in August and have continued that run in September, outscoring opponents 27-7 through four games.

On the other hand, the Yankees began the year hot, but have significantly cooled in the second half, going just 24-26. They also play the Rays and Blue Jays 10 more times, division opponents against which they’ve lost more games than they’ve won (11-14).

The Orioles have 10 more rematches against two particular division foes as well (Blue Jays and Red Sox), but have posted a noteworthy 17-8 mark.

The most remarkable development when looking at the win-loss records of these two first-place teams are their respective marks in one-run contests. Baltimore is nearly 20 games over .500 (24-7), while their neighbors to the North are three games under at 17-20.

Baltimore’s 4.3 runs per game and collective 3.98 ERA are indicative of its propensity to play in close games. Its .774 winning percentage in those contests reflects its tendency to emerge victorious. Jim Johnson's 41 saves (No. 2 in MLB) and a combined 3.00 ERA out of its bullpen has solidified the back end of games.

Concerning the Yankees, there isn’t any denying their ability to hit, especially the long ball. They lead the majors with 203 home runs, including Granderson's 34 and 10 Yanks in double digits.

Rafael Soriano has also emerged in a commendable fashion in Mariano Rivera's stead. He's converted 10 out of his past 11 opportunities and has just three blown saves on the season. His 36 total saves ranks third in the league.

Both teams have also had issues with their starting pitching staffs, so that can essentially be labeled a wash in most respects (overall edge to the Yankees).

And speaking of advantages, New York has been decimated by injuries to its lineup. A-Rod and Teixeira—the heart of the order—remain in different stages of recovery from injury. The lineup as a whole is getting severely long in the tooth with questionable replacements in key areas.

As Wallace Matthews so eloquently stated, "Murderer's Row, it aint" (via ESPNNewYork).

By and large, it’s the Orioles' ability to win close games—their scrappy and dogged identity that is so crucial in the game of baseball—and the managerial prowess of Buck Showalter that’ll propel this team to a first-place finish. Both are as unquantifiable as they are objective statistical measures.

Just about everything that Showalter touches turns into gold. He transformed a 91-loss Yankees club into a playoff contender within two years in the early 90s. He then turned an expansion Diamondbacks team into a 100-win squad in his second year. In 2004, he helped bring the Rangers to the 89-win mark in his second year on the job.

Showalter won Al Manager of the Year for his services in 1994 and 2004, and earned top-five finishes in two additional seasons. 

Now in his third season during his latest managerial gig, Showalter has the Baltimore Orioles in first place with 26 games left on the year. Expect this club to maintain that position until the very end.

The Orioles and the postseason in the same sentence—pretty astonishing stuff for a once proud franchise with such a lengthy removal from October baseball.

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