5 Reasons Ichiro's Resurgence Makes Him Yankees' Biggest October X-Factor
Ichiro Suzuki wasn't having a great season when the New York Yankees pulled off a surprise trade to acquire him from the Seattle Mariners in late July. He was only hitting .261 with a .642 OPS, very un-Ichiro-like numbers.
Still, the Yankees basically couldn't lose in trading for Ichiro. At worst, they were getting a versatile fourth outfielder. At best, they were getting one of the AL's best overall players, one who simply needed a jump-start to get going again.
Hats off to Brian Cashman. His gamble is paying off.
The change of scenery has had the desired effect. Ichiro is hitting over .300 as a member of the Yankees, and in the month of August he's emerged as a player who's going to be a very important player down the stretch.
He'll be important in October too once they get there. In fact, here's a look at why Ichiro is going to be the Yankees' biggest X-factor in October.
Note: All stats are current as of the start of play on Monday, August 20, and they come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Value on Defense
1 of 5Even when he was looking old and over the hill when he was with the Mariners, defense wasn't a problem for Ichiro.
According to FanGraphs, there are only three outfielders in baseball with higher UZRs than Ichiro, and he's also among the league leaders with a +9 DRS. It seems he's taken his failure to win a Gold Glove in 2011 for the first time in his career to heart.
Ichiro is at his best when he's roaming right field, but he's taken to playing left field with the Yankees pretty well. His 6.8 UZR/150 in left field would rank fifth among major league left fielders if he had enough innings to qualify.
Joe Girardi can't lose if he's faced with a situation where he needs to use Ichiro in right field on an everyday basis once the postseason rolls around, and it stands to reason that he's only going to get more and more comfortable playing left as the season winds down.
This is important not just because it means better defense in left field, but because it means better outfield defense in general.
The Yankees had a plus defender in left field when Brett Gardner was healthy in 2011, and the sheer amount of ground he could cover made things a lot easier for Curtis Granderson. He's definitely missed Gardner this year, as Granderson has seen his UZR climb from -5.1 in 2011 to -16.2 this season.
Granderson's not going to be an elite defensive center fielder no matter who he has playing next to him, but it's pretty clear that he's less of a liability when he has a rangy left fielder around to share the load.
In all likelihood, that's going to be Ichiro's job well into October. If he continues to play well out in left, outfield defense is going to be just another one of the Yankees' strengths.
Turns out He Can Still Hit
2 of 5The big question when the Yankees traded for Ichiro was whether he could still hit.
It looked like he couldn't when he was still with the Mariners, as he was hitting just .261 with a BABIP of .279. This would be the same guy who once posted a BABIP of .399 in 2004 and routinely posted BABIPs well over .300, largely because of his ability to pile up infield singles.
The 38-year-old Ichiro is clearly not as fast as he once was, and you could tell by the fact that he was hitting just .218 when he put the ball on the ground when the Yankees traded for him. He's at a point in his career where he needs to make solid contact in order to get hits. Just like everyone else.
We now know that he may be slower, but he can still hit.
Ichiro has a BABIP of .316 with the Yankees. Amazingly, he's slugging .506 after slugging just .353 with the Mariners. His next homer in pinstripes will give him four, equaling the amount of homers he hit in a Mariners uniform this season.
All three of his Yankees home runs have come at home at Yankee Stadium. To the surprise of, well, nobody, he's had little trouble taking advantage of the short porch in right field.
So yeah, he can still hit.
And to make matters even better for the Yankees, Ichiro has a tendency to hit well against really good teams...
Has Good Numbers Against Potential Postseason Foes
3 of 5The Yankees are a virtual lock to make the postseason, but at this point it's anybody's guess who they might come up against in October. Beyond them, the American League playoff picture is pretty muddy.
Here's what we know about Ichiro, though: If the Bombers come up against the Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers or Oakland A's, he'll be fine.
Against the Tigers this season, Ichiro is hitting .325 with a .400 slugging percentage. He's just the kind of guy who can take advantage of their questionable infield defense.
Against the Rays, Ichiro is hitting .323 with a .452 slugging percentage. Not even Joe Maddon will be able to come up with a shift that can beat Ichiro.
Against the Rangers, Ichiro is hitting .321 with a .429 slugging percentage. Thanks to his time spent in the AL West, he's plenty familiar with all of Texas' top pitchers.
He's only hitting .298 against the A's, but his 17 hits against them this season are second only to the 18 hits he has against the Rangers.
Combine these numbers with Ichiro's success at the plate as a Yankee, and one wonders if the bottom of the lineup will be the best place for Ichiro in October.
And that brings us to the next point...
He Gives Joe Girardi Lineup Flexibility
4 of 5Ichiro has hit leadoff once and fifth a couple times for the Yankees, but Joe Girardi has preferred to keep Ichiro down in the No. 8 or No. 9 spot in his lineup.
At the rate Ichiro is going, you have to think it's just a matter of time before Girardi pencils Ichiro at the top of his lineup and keeps him there.
We know Ichiro can bat leadoff, but a better place for him would be the No. 2 spot behind Derek Jeter. That's generally been Curtis Granderson's home, but the fact that Ichiro is a much better contact hitter makes him much more of a typical No. 2 hitter. He and Jeter would work in tandem as an excellent pair of table-setters for the middle of the lineup.
And with Ichiro at the top of the lineup, the door would be open for Granderson to hit No. 5 or No. 6, where his power would serve as great protection for the likes of Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano.
Or Girardi could keep Ichiro right where he's at for the purpose of having a second leadoff hitter at the bottom of the lineup. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Regardless of how he wants to play things in October, the point is the ability to move Ichiro around gives Girardi far more flexibility than he had before Ichiro came aboard.
He's going to be grateful he has this flexibility if the Yankees are having a hard time coming up with runs in October. If Girardi feels that a change needs to be made, he'll have plenty of options.
Huge Sparkplug Potential
5 of 5The Yankees didn't take off right away after they acquired Ichiro. They lost five of the first eight games he appeared in, including four in a row to close out July.
They're now 12-6 in August, a month in which Ichiro is hitting .357.
He's not the sole reason the Yankees are playing so well this month, but to say that he hasn't been a major contributor would be denying the obvious. Furthermore, it's obvious that he's enjoying winning again and it's obvious that his teammates have taken quite a liking to him.
Goodness knows Yankees fans love him, as well they should.
This begs the question: If Ichiro can make things this exciting in August when the Yankees basically already have a spot in the postseason locked up, how much more exciting can he make things in October when he's playing in the playoffs for the first time since his rookie year and the Yankees have No. 28 in their sights?
Here's a hint: It's probably going to get loud.
Very loud.
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