NBA Trade Rumors: Houston Rockets Offseason Plans Could Lead to Disaster

The Houston Rockets are attempting the impossible.

They are trying to lure both Dwight Howard and Deron Williams to a team not named the Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks or any of the other squads that have been rumored as potential spots for the two All-Stars. 

If they don't abort the mission soon enough, though, the Rockets are going to be in trouble. There's a lot that could go wrong between preparation and takeoff. 

Bringing Dwight to Houston sounds like a good plan in theory, but in the words of Robert Burns, "The best laid schemes of mice and men often go awry." Unfortunately, for Houston general manager Daryl Morey, this isn't even one of the most carefully thought out schemes yet. 

There are simply too many moving parts in the equation and too many deals to swing for this to possibly work out just as the Rockets are hoping. 

Here's a quick breakdown, but you can find a full explanation in a previous article I wrote. 

Houston has already made the first move by dealing Chase Budinger to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the No. 18 pick in the 2012 NBA draft. No harm was done there as Budinger only had one year left on his contract, and Chandler Parsons has proven to be more than capable of shouldering the load at small forward. 

The following are Budinger's and Parsons' 2011-12 per-36 minutes stats (via Basketball-Reference.com): 

	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	PER
Chase Budinger	15.5	6.0	2.1	0.8	0.2	14.9
Chandler Parsons	12.0	6.0	2.7	1.5	0.6	13.3

Budinger is obviously the better player at the moment, but Parsons isn't too far behind, and he's only completed one season in The Association after leaving the Florida Gators. Even if it's the only move that Houston makes, this one isn't a bad one. 

Now the Rockets have the No. 14, No. 16 and No. 18 picks in the draft.

The next step is to trade the middle pick and Samuel Dalembert to the Sacramento Kings for the No. 5 pick. After that, deal the unhappy point guard named Kyle Lowry to Canada and acquire the No. 8 pick from the Toronto Raptors. 

Next, it's time to make a play for Dwight by sending the two top-10 picks and Kevin Martin to Orlando in exchange for the latest reincarnation of Superman. 

Finally, the Rockets have to hope and pray that this is enough to tempt Deron Williams with a max contract.

If all goes according to plan, Houston is left with Goran Dragic (hopefully re-signed as an unrestricted free agent) and Williams at point guard, Courtney Lee (hopefully re-signed as a restricted free agent) at shooting guard, Chandler Parsons and Marcus Morris at small forward, Luis Scola and Patrick Patterson at power forward and Howard at center.

I know I said "finally," but we're not actually done yet. All of this is pointless if Dwight won't sign an extension to stay in Houston. The Rockets are hoping that the presence of Lee, one of his best friends, and D-Will can convince him that this is a good idea. 

See how complicated this is? See how much potential there is for disaster? 

Let's take a look at all the places where this could go wrong and the Rockets crash and burn. 

One of the First Trades Falls Through

It's a rather large leap of faith to just assume that the Houston Rockets are going to be able to pull off both of the pre-Dwight trades.

The Sacramento move in particular strikes me as far-fetched. Samuel Dalembert isn't a player who can be effective for large portions of time at this stage in his career. He averaged single-digit points and rebounds last season, even if he was efficient while he was on the court.

Dalembert is 31 right now and on the decline. It's tough to imagine the Kings being content to move down 11 spots in the draft while giving up the opportunity to select either Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Andre Drummond.

If Luis Scola is involved instead of Dalembert, this changes things, but that's not how the rumors have been working.

Houston wouldn't be in a world of trouble if the plan falls through this early on. They'd just be left either selecting three rookies or packaging some of the picks for a lesser player. No harm, no foul in this case, but the Rockets wouldn't have even gotten to liftoff.

However, let's assume that the Kings swap the No. 5 pick for the No. 16 pick and pick up Dalembert for some reason. Now we're dealing with the Toronto Raptors.

Kyle Lowry is a great point guard and certainly an upgrade over Jose Calderon, but is he really worth the No. 8 pick in the draft?

This is a deep draft class and there's a solid chance that a wing player like Harrison Barnes or Jeremy Lamb could still be available when the Raptors are on the clock. The team would be much better served to use this pick to address a need rather than to strengthen a position that is already fairly strong.

Calderon is an unrestricted free agent in 2013, but he's still a solid player who passes almost as well as anyone in the league. With Jerryd Bayless possibly re-signing as a restricted free agent, the point guard rotation is not a weakness for this upcoming season. 

Lowry is more of a luxury than a need at this point, and the Raptors would be better off waiting until the 2013 NBA draft and selecting a point guard then. C.J. McCollum, P.J. Hairston, Myck Kabongo, Ryan Harrow, Michael Carter-Williams and Trey Burke are all going to be solid options, and that's assuming that Toronto isn't going to be content with Bayless. After all, the former Arizona Wildcat was a lottery pick only four years ago. 

If the Raptors choose to stay at No. 8 or get a better offer for the deal, the Rockets still would be stuck with three picks in the first 18 and no center at all, assuming Dalembert is dealt first. The situation is even more dire if Lowry changes hands initially and then the Kings shoot them down. 

With no guarantee that Dragic comes back, Houston could possibly be left without a point guard.

In all likelihood, the Rockets don't make either deal without a promise that the other will be made as well. I'm just covering all my bases here. 

Orlando Won't Trade Dwight

Let's say that the two previously discussed trades do go through as planned, and the Rockets are left without Lowry or Dalembert and own the No. 5, No. 8, No. 14 and No. 18 picks.

Now, they try to package Kevin Martin and the two top-10 picks, send them to the Orlando Magic and hope to attain the services of the best center in the league. I doubt it would happen, but what if the Magic say no?

What if Dwight doesn't want to go to Houston and the management decides to keep him?

In that case, the Rockets are now left without a point guard—unless Dragic re-signs—and without a center. Ouch.

At least they have four early draft picks to remedy the problem, but rookies don't usually make a significant impact on a contending team, and the Rockets are undoubtedly looking to contend this year.

All of this groundwork should make that perfectly clear.  

Deron Williams Won't Sign

Even if Daryl Morey somehow makes the impossible possible, there's still no guarantee that the last part of the equation works—that Deron Williams comes to the Houston Rockets to play alongside Dwight Howard. 

D-Will has made it clear that the Dallas Mavericks and Brooklyn Nets are the only teams he wants to play for. Marc Stein of ESPN reports the following: 

"

Sources say Williams, in any case, already has instructed his representatives to advise any team that calls starting at 12:01 a.m. July 1 that he intends to either re-sign with the Nets or return to his hometown with the Mavericks after a glittering high school career in the Dallas area.

"

This might change if Howard was wearing a Rockets uniform, but there's no telling how firm the point guard will be in his decision-making process. He could very well be stubborn enough that Howard's move would have little to no impact. 

This is where disaster sets in.

Now the Rockets have cleaned shop and gotten rid of their two best players to acquire a man who will be a free agent after just one season. Talk about an expensive rental. 

Without Williams, there's absolutely no chance that Howard spends any more than the required allotment of time with Houston. He'll be bolting from the city as soon as his contract is up and may even cause some internal problems during the 2012-13 season. 

This leads me directly to my next point. 

Dwight Won't Sign an Extension

It's time once again to make an assumption. Here, we're assuming that the Rockets do manage to deal for Howard and convince Williams to sign with the team. 

Despite putting all of the right pieces into place, Howard still might not sign an extension and could remain an expensive rental. 

With rumors flying all around, NBA.com's David Aldridge reported that Howard wouldn't do so and would opt to become a free agent as soon as possible. Though his name was mentioned not even once in Aldridge's article, Williams coming aboard still may not be enough to sway the stubborn mind of D12.

This would be the most heartbreaking situation of all. Imagine you're a Rockets fan and you acquire two All-Stars, readying yourself for a run at a title. You aren't going to have the chemistry to win a championship in year one, but you're poised to do so in the second go-around.

Then, Howard says goodbye and flees to greener pastures. Utter heartbreak ensues.

Overall

Regardless of how far the Rockets get in this process, it's doomed to failure. As with any expensive space shuttle, it's far better to get out while you still can rather than commit to the launch and watch as the ship crashes back to earth. 

The sooner that Houston escapes from this mess, the better. 

At this point, it's best for the team to attempt to swing some deals to move up in the draft or get rid of the excess picks for some more established talent. The Rockets are already on the verge of the playoffs and don't need to blow up the roster. 

If they attempt to do that, everything might blow up.