Will the Chicago Bulls Win a Title in the Next Five Years?
Every NBA expert, fan, writer, reporter knows that the Bulls season was left unfinished this year.
When Derrick Rose infamously tore his ACL in Game One of the NBA playoffs against the Philadelphia 76ers, not even Bulls fans themselves gave the Bulls a chance to go far in the playoffs without their MVP. But let's not forget that the Bulls have been the No. 1 seed in the NBA for the past two years, and while that hasn't meant much when it comes to playoff time, it's still premature to dismiss it because the Bulls have really only had one opportunity to go far, and that was last year against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Watching the playoffs this year, it got me thinking of whether the Bulls have a shot at winning a title, not next year or the year after that, but at least one in the next five years. Half a decade is a good barometer for measuring whether a team is a fluke or can have long-term success. However, rather than looking at the Bulls first, I'd like to analyze their competition in the next half a decade.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat appear firmly at the top of that list. Both teams are relatively young, explosive and have no shortage of stars and fire-power. Finances, though, are a different story. While the Thunder are relaxing now as Western Conference Champs, they won't be next year or the year after that when James Harden, the NBA's sixth man of the year, is up for a contract extension, and you can bet he'll ask to be maxed out. Then you have the NBA's best shot-blocker also up for an extension, and the Thunder are going to have to pay a hefty check to keep Ibaka's services. Not to mention that the NBA's salary cap rules have changed, and it's not a dollar for dollar tax amount anymore. Rather, it's going to be a significant hit for teams going over the cap in the next few seasons. Are the Thunder willing to break the bank to keep their core intact? It's going to be awfully tough.
Then you have the Miami Heat, whom as of Game Five in the Eastern Conference Finals were being rumored to be breaking up their big three if they didn't defeat the Boston Celtics and advance to the NBA Finals. They're obviously on a short leash because of the enormous expectations. While LeBron James is still relatively young, Dwyane Wade is getting up there in age and is moving on the wrong side of 30. Chris Bosh has certainly regressed offensively from his Toronto days, and their bench can be summed up in one word: inept.
In term of finances, the Heat are certainly going to be crossing the luxury tax soon. Wade, James and Bosh will each make around $17 million a year next season, with increasing salaries every year after. Their three salaries combined will account for $51, $56 and $60 million of Miami's cap space over the next three years. So it'll make it that much harder for the Heat organization to surround their core with a solid bench.
The Bulls, on the the other hand, have the potential to cut costs as soon as next season. They can and most probably will decide not to pick up C.J. Watson and Ronnie Brewer's team options, shedding about $7.3 million from their salary cap. They can also decline Korver's $5 million team option, but they need his shooting. The only sticking point is when Taj Gibson is up for a contract extension in two years, but don't forget, Bulls still have their amnesty clause, which they can use on under-achieving PF Carlos Boozer, who is set to make $15 million next year and $15.3 and $16.8 million over the next three seasons. Luol Deng also comes off the books in the next two years, and the Bulls have the Charlotte Bobcats first round draft pick, which they can use in trades. Most importantly, they've got their core locked up, in Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, both signed till 2016.
OKC Thunder Salary cap total over next five years (James Harden and Serge Ibaka contract extensions are included). I'm assuming James Harden is signed to a max contract and Serge Ibaka to a $10 million a year extension. These are rough estimates.
 2011-12: $59,355,606 |
Miami Heat salary cap total over next five years. (2015-16 is only with Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Norris Cole signed.)
Chicago Bulls salary cap total over next five years. (Assuming Bulls don't pick up C.J. Watson and Ronnie Brewer's team options)
Financially, the Bulls are better off that the Heat and Thunder over the next five years, which makes their championship hopes that much brighter. As for any other competition popping up, it's unclear to determine. Indiana looks formidable in the East but they don't have a go-to guy down the stretch. The Knicks have explosive offense but Amar'e Stoudemire has a bad back and now an injured hand, while Carmelo Anthony still doesn't play defense. The 76ers were a fluke, who took advantage as any team would of the Rose injury, and the Celtics will certainly have to break up the big three in the next two years, or they will retire for sure in the next five.
If the Bulls play their cards right, make the right moves and surround Rose with a second scorer (easier said than done), then they're chances of winning a title in the next five years are as high as anyone's in the league. In fact if I was a betting man and I was in Vegas, I would put my money down on the Bulls winning a title in the next five years or by the time Rose is 28. Obviously, everything I've mentioned is predicated and prefaced with the assumption that Rose will be healthy and back to his MVP-caliber self.
The key here is management. They need to be careful with their money and spend wisely. Even though people may think the Bulls core isn't talented enough to beat Miami or OKC's core, they may not have to face them because OKC and Miami will probably be forced to break up theirs. Let's hope for the sake of Bulls fans, they do.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
