NBA Playoffs 2012: No Time to Panic for San Antonio Spurs, Miami Heat

Chances are you have seen the stat already: In the playoffs, teams that win Game 5 after going in tied 2-2 have won the series 83.5 percent of the time (137-27).

Over the past 36 hours, the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat have suddenly found themselves going up against the wrong side of history.

Both teams dropped Game 5 at home, sending them on the road for a must-win Game 6. After both teams opened up a 2-0 series lead a week ago, the thought of finding both of them in this situation is rather astounding. 

But instead of resigning themselves to their fate and submitting to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics, respectively, now is the time when the Spurs and Heat must dig deeper than ever to stay alive in the conference finals.

Let's face it. While the Thunder and Celtics have each ripped off three straight wins, it's not like any of the four remaining teams are overmatched. Heat-Celtics Game 4 went to overtime after LeBron James and Udonis Haslem couldn't connect at the end of regulation, and Dwyane Wade had a wide-open three-point attempt at the end of overtime that would have put Miami up 3-1 in the series.

Likewise, the Spurs were only down two points to the Thunder with less than a minute remaining before James Harden pulled up in the face of Kawhi Leonard and drained a three.

Yes, the Spurs got blown out by 20 points in Game 3, and no, the final scores in the Boston-Miami series doesn't reflect how confident the Celtics look on the court compared to the Heat.

Still, both the Spurs and the Heat know that one strong effort in Game 6 shifts the momentum in the series back to them.

Here's a brief look at what each team needs to do in Game 6 to even the series at 3-3.

Miami Heat

Transition defense, transition defense, Chris Bosh and more transition defense.

Rajon Rondo proved prophetic during a Game 4 halftime interview with Doris Burke (via ESPNBoston.com), saying the Celtics were taking advantage of the Heat "complaining and crying to the referees in transition."

In Game 5, with just under 100 seconds left in the game, Dwyane Wade drove into the paint and avoided a swarm of Celtics for an acrobatic layup. 

The only problem was the Heat forgot to run back on defense.

Five seconds later, Paul Pierce drew a foul and drained two free throws to give the Celtics a lead they wouldn't relinquish the rest of the night.

On the TV broadcast, Jeff Van Gundy berated the Heat for their lack of defensive effort on that particular play. To add insult to injury, he counted the number of seconds ("one-one thousand, two-one thousand...") it took for the Heat players to match up with their respective Celtics, saying it was inexcusable to take as long as they did.

Without a fully healthy Bosh, the Heat aren't a strong enough team to afford anything short of full effort from their players. They can't play lazy defense against these Celtics, or their season will end Thursday night.

And speaking of Bosh: If he was healthy enough to go 14 minutes last night, he needs to go 25-30 minutes in Game 6. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra also can't afford to play matchup games with Bosh, as he did in Game 5 (mainly putting Bosh in when Kevin Garnett was heading to the bench).

When the game slows down late in the fourth quarter, as is virtually inevitable in Game 6, the Heat need Bosh's presence on the floor to give themselves a reasonable counter for Garnett, who has been murdering them this series (26 points, 11 rebounds in Game 5).

Even if Bosh plays the role of decoy on offense, the threat of his shot should theoretically open up driving lanes for Wade and James, and he has the size to affect KG's shot on defense, too.

Stiffen up the transition defense and add a touch more Bosh, and the Heat aren't out of this series just yet.

San Antonio Spurs

After appearing near invincible the first two games of this series, the Spurs suddenly appear tragically mortal. Tim Duncan's face at the end of Game 5 says it all.

These youthful Thunder players aren't interested in taking lumps from their elders anymore. After falling in a competitive first-round series to the Los Angeles Lakers in 2010, then succumbing to the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals last year, the Thunder appear primed to clinch their first NBA Finals berth. 

"We never just thought that we were supposed to wait our turn," Thunder superstar Kevin Durant said after Game 5, via ESPN.com. "We always wanted to go and take everything."

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich already pulled out his traditional trump card before Game 5—putting Manu Ginobili in the starting lineup—which leaves the Spurs short on radical moves to make for Game 6.

Pop will presumably continue playing frontcourt roulette, trying to find an adequate partner for Duncan, but there aren't any major lineup changes coming to bail the Spurs out.

Instead, Pop needs to challenge the competitive spirits of Duncan and Tony Parker, both of whom can't continue to struggle if the Spurs plan to win this series.

In the postgame broadcast on Monday night, Charles Barkley said that Duncan's 18-point, 12-rebound effort in Game 5 wasn't enough. For the Spurs to win, Duncan needs to take over the game if the Thunder keep guarding him one-on-one. Shaquille O'Neal, Barkley's fellow big man broadcast partner, concurred.

Even including a Game 3 clunker (only 11 points and two rebounds), Duncan's 15-point, nine-rebound and three-assist averages this series suggest that he has been pulling his 36-year-old weight. But that doesn't mean he can't do more.  

Duncan needs to take one look at what Kevin Garnett is doing to the Miami Heat right now, then go out and attempt to emulate it in Game 6. The Big Fundamental needs to take over and dominate isolated matchups with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka.

Meanwhile, the Spurs need to get Parker's all-around game going. He's only mustered 12 assists in the past three games combined (after dishing 14 in the first two games of the series—both Spurs wins).

The Thunder stymied Parker's offensive flow by sticking Thabo Sefolosha on him starting in Game 3, and the Frenchman has yet to regain his rhythm. 

The Spurs need to spend the early parts of Game 6 focusing on getting their Big Three going offensively. Manu Ginobili more than held his own in Game 5 with 34 points, seven rebounds and six assists, and another All-Star performance would certainly be appreciated. But if Duncan and Parker can't step up on Wednesday, the Spurs may very well be going fishing in June.