Toronto Blue Jays: Is the AL East Suddenly Within Grasp for the Jays?

On July 3^rd of last year, the Toronto Blue Jays were hoping to enter the All-Star break even at .500.  In fact, pick any year from the past dozen, and that modest goal would’ve been the same.  Not this year though.  This year, the Blue Jays are expecting to compete for the division title in the persistently difficult AL East.

This loftier goal is reflected throughout the organization, from the enthusiasm of players like Brett Lawrie to the outfielders’ celebratory chest bump after each victory. 

The seasons of dominance in the AL East by the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are yesterday’s news. The division is suddenly very competitive; a pennant race no one expected started with game one of the regular season. 

Bud Selig has been waiting for something to reignite the fading interest in baseball.  To have all five teams in a division competing so tightly is not only a dream for the commissioner, but for many baseball fans as well.  

As for the Blue Jays, the division title is just over the horizon, something that the organization has not experienced in close to two decades.

Brandon Morrow has developed into a solid starter with tremendous potential to be an ace in the near future.  His command has improved, as evidenced by his 1.063 WHIP, the lowest among Jays starters. And if players do get on base, it no longer rattles him. 

Edwin Encarnacion has been off to a great start, already matching his previous year’s HR total at 17, good for second in the AL.  Joey Bats, as Jose Bautista is so affectionately known in Toronto, struggled at the start but has since picked it up. He's now tied for seventh in HRs at 14. 

Despite Travis d’Arnaud's solid performances in Las Vegas, J.P Arencibia’s role at the catcher position hasn't really been in question, thanks mainly to his May stats (.278 average with 19 RBIs and 8 HRs. 

For all the positives, there some dark clouds.

Adam Lind was sent down to AAA to find himself, and has since been placed on waivers.  Sergio Santos, who was signed to be the much-needed closer after the Jays led the league in blown saves last year, went down with an injury.  Francisco Cordero took the closer spot, but after an epic blown save on May 8 in which he allowed five earned runs and two walks in 0.1 inning’s worth of work, he was demoted back to reliever duty. 

Santos is scheduled to start throwing in Dunedin this coming Monday.  Meanwhile, Casey Janssen has filled in the closer spot nicely. 

There have been rumors throughout the year of bringing up d’Arnaud or even trading Yunel Escobar for a starting pitcher. Although there are a few things on Alex Anthopoulos’ list that I am sure he would like to get to, everyone seems pleased with the results so far. 

Meanwhile, Toronto can also thank the rest of the AL East for assisting them so far.  Outside of C.C. Sabathia, the Yankees’ rotation is a mess; the loss of Michael Pineda hurt them greatly followed by the injury to iconic closer Mariano Rivera. Rivera's injury depleted an already struggling bullpen.  It’s no surprise that the Yankee faithful warmly welcomed back soon to be 40-year-old starter Andy Pettite. 

The Red Sox aren’t fairing much better; injuries have plagued the Sox roster, but they’ve been able to hold it together recently.  A string of victories has them sitting above .500.  Those recent victories have been against sub-par teams, so the question still remains whether or not they’ll be able to compete consistently this year. I suspect, like the younger brother you unsuccessfully tried to ditch as kids, they’ll still be around. 

The overachieving Rays and their tight salary may run into issues this year as they will begin to find it increasingly difficult to replace veteran players.  Jeff Niemann is out; so is team leader Evan Longoria, players not so easily substituted. 

The Orioles started the season well enough, surprising everyone.  However, after losing recent series to the Red Sox, the lowly Royals, being swept by the Jays losing another series to the Rays, the Orioles have fallen out of first place.  They are now 2-8 in their last 10 games and are experiencing the free fall that many expected them to suffer through.

That all leaves the Blue Jays with opportunities to seize. 

Their starters have performed above expectations, pulling in the lowest opponent batting average in the AL.  They do, however, also lead the league in walks issued, a result of the still maturing young staff. 

The offense, while trailing in some areas compared to last year's team is still good for third in the AL in both runs and HRs.  The Jays are not a powerhouse team.  Their being swept by the Rangers before sweeping the Orioles definitely shows inconsistency. 

Their inconsistency doesn't change the fact that the Blue Jays have put themselves in position to finally have a chance to take the AL East.  Only three games separate first and last place in the division, and any of the other teams can still easily take it as well. 

The Blue Jays may still end up at .500 at the All-Star break this year.  Unlike prior years, however, they actually have expectations playing meaningful games in September.