2012 Oakland Raiders Schedule Breakdown

After my breakdown of the top games they will be playing, the National Football League has officially released the Oakland Raiders schedule for the 2012 regular season.

Here is my game-by-game breakdown of the games in their entirety and the factors that could impact wins or losses. Without further ado, here we go...

Week One: Home vs. San Diego (Monday Night Football)

It was a good assumption that the Raiders would get the ESPN late game as part of its opening weekend doubleheader. The Chargers have been the opponent for the Raiders each time they have hosted the game in Oakland. What a great way to start the season against a bitter rival and the team that knocked them out of the playoffs in January.

This would be a tone setting win to get, to say the least. More immediately, it serves as an early indication of what changes have been made to slow down Phillip Rivers and the potent San Diego air attack that has shredded the Raiders the last two games in Oakland.

On the flip side, a healthy Darren McFadden should be featured here, setting up Carson Palmer to utilize Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey on play-action in the new offense coordinated by Greg Knapp. Expect to see shades of what the Texans run in Houston (i.e. stretch plays and PA passes to the tight ends). 

Week Two: At Miami

For the third straight year, the Raiders face the Miami Dolphins. This year, it is again in Miami. But with a 4:15 p.m. ET start and in September, the weather will most certainly be a factor. It will be hot. The key will be sustaining offense and not allowing Miami's offense to wear the Raider defense down in what I expect will be a closer game than the last two.

Carson Palmer will have to play much better than he did last year for the Raiders to have a chance to win. Stopping Reggie Bush appears to be even more of a priority now that Brandon Marshall is in Chicago.

Week Three: Home vs. Pittsburgh

The Raiders. The Steelers. One of the greatest rivalries in NFL history is renewed in week three. Again, this appears to be another marquee/statement game for the Raiders. This initial stretch is definitely daunting, but this is by no means an impossibility. The last time the Steelers came to Oakland, Ben Roethlisberger was intercepted four times en route to a shocking 20-13 Raiders win in 2006. That seems like the same type of formula that will be needed to win here.

As great as Big Ben is, stopping the Steeler run game or at least slowing it to a measurable degree will be more important. Against that aggressive Steeler defense, the key will be being able to continue running the ball. A great example was Houston's 17-10 win in 2011 when Arian Foster ran and ran and ran some more on Pittsburgh and helped Houston control the clock. If the Raiders can do that, they have a chance at a close victory in the Black Hole.

Week Four: At Denver

Showdown number one with Peyton Manning is at Invesco Field. Very good time to play in Denver with the weather still nice and the Raiders speed able to be fully utilized. There is no secret in how to beat a Manning-led team: you keep him off of the field. For the Raiders, it is simple...Darren McFadden. If McFadden can have a game like he has had the last two years in Denver the Raiders will have a great chance of winning. This is a venue where the Raider kryptonite has a chance to show itself. I'm talking about penalties. Last year, they committed 15 penalties for 131 yards, many of them at crucial times. It is hard enough to beat Peyton Manning. It cannot happen with that many penalties. Defensively, if the Raiders can make Manning happy in the pocket, their chances go up tremendously. In the meeting in Denver, the run defense was outstanding, allowing only 38 yards on 13 carries. That will be the kind of performance needed to win what should be an emotional rivalry game.

Bye Week

A little early in the year, but still not so bad. After a pretty daunting opening stretch, the Raiders get time to prepare for a tough road test against...

Week Six: At Atlanta

The Georgia Dome to face the Atlanta Falcons. The last two games have been indicators of how bad the Raiders have been. In 2004, they were pounded 35-10 allowing 219 yards rushing. In 2008, the Raiders were shut out at home 24-0 while amassing only 77 total yards of offense.

Win or lose, I am willing to bet that is not the case this time around. But to beat the Falcons at home, the Raiders will have to be good on third down, slow down Michael Turner and make Matt Ryan a one-dimensional passer. But most of all, the Raiders have to be good on special teams. Eric Weems may be gone, but Atlanta still has game-breakers on returns and the best kicking combo for my money in football have to keep the ball out of his hands. Sebastian Janikowski and Shane Lechler will have to make their money.

Week 7: Home vs. Jacksonville

Another opportunity to exact a measure of revenge takes place week seven when the Raiders host the Jaguars. As many of you recall, one of the games of 2010 took place in Jacksonville when despite 209 total yards and three spectacular touchdowns by Darren McFadden, the Raiders blew a 10 point lead and lost 38-31 to the Jags. The formula to win will be really simple: stop "Pocket Hercules" Maurice Jones-Drew. He is their offense.

I think Blaine Gabbert is a developmental quarterback at best and pressure can and will create turnovers for the Raiders defense. In a game like this, the Raiders should win. But it will depend on scoring touchdowns and not field goals. This is precisely the type of game where a team that should not be close hangs around because the Raiders can not put them away. In this game, a fast start should lead to an early knockout.

Week Eight: At Kansas City

If I can make anything clear, it is this: I hate the Kansas City Chiefs. At this point in the season, the Raiders could be anywhere from 4-2 to 1-5. But that ceases to matter when we visit Arrowhead Stadium to play K.C. As it stands, the Raiders have a five game winning streak on the road against the Chiefs and this game could go a long way toward determining if the Raiders are a serious playoff team in 2012.

As usual, it will be a tough game. I expect the Chiefs to be very good defensively and with Eric Berry, Tony Moeaki and Jamaal Charles back and healthy, it could be a tough task for our defense. The key is familiarity. The reason the Raiders have had success in Kansas City has been the ability for our defense to make timely plays. Last year it was Matt Giordano's key interception. Special teams was huge, as Richard Seymour blocked two kicks to get the game into overtime.

I am optimistic that Darren McFadden will play in his first game at Arrowhead since September 2009. But Carson Palmer will have to make plays. Last year, he made two throws: the touchdown to Denarius Moore in the third quarter to give the Raiders the lead. And of course, the first play of overtime on a perfect bomb to Darrius Heyward-Bey to set up the game winning field goal. No costly turnovers and limited penalties and the Raiders should be in position to win number six.

Week Nine: Home vs. Tampa Bay

An interesting match-up to end the first half of the 2012 schedule pits the Raiders against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Tampa was aggressive in free agency adding former Charger wide receiver Vincent Jackson and all-pro guard Carl Nicks. Those additions should improve an offense that was pretty bad last year (27th overall).

However, the real stinker was laid by Tampa's defense. Normally pretty good, they gave up a club record 494 points, by far the worst in football. And although their pass defense was not exactly great, it was their run defense, to the tune of 156 yards per game allowed last year, that the Raiders will need to exploit.

If the game is close, and many games are in Oakland, Josh Freeman could be dangerous. Although he regressed last year, he is a physical stud and has the propensity for leading the Bucs back late. So the game plan should be to force them away from LaGarrette Blount and make them have to pass often, which could lead to turnovers. Could be a trap game as the Raiders head east in Week 10 against...

Week 10: At Baltimore

The Baltimore Ravens. This is a game I have circled on my calendar. Unlike many of the other games on the schedule, this will be less about strategy and more about will. Baltimore has imposed its will on the Raiders in the last three meetings. It is one thing to be smart. And considering last year's team was technically the dumbest team in NFL history with 163 penalties, the Raiders have not been lately. But when you play the Ravens, it is about physical will.

That starts and ends with aging, but emotional all-time linebacker Ray Lewis. He sets the tone for that entire team and when they have taken a lead on the Raiders, the games have snowballed out of hand. It is very difficult to win in Baltimore. For me, I want to see the Raiders establish themselves as tough and persistent in this game. Win or lose, show a team like Baltimore that you cannot have your will taken away. Coach Tarver will have to be aggressive against Baltimore's offense, which will feature lots of Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, and more Ray Rice. A conservative plan may be in order on offense, but the Raiders have to be willing to take their shots. Play action passing will be a key in this game.

Week 11: Home vs. New Orleans

As I wrote in my preview, this is among the five biggest match-ups of the year in my opinion. I say that not just based on the 2012 season, but more as a harbinger of how things will be going forward. My reasoning is, the old Raider style of defense was easily exploited by Drew Brees not just in two preseason games, but in a 34-3 laughter in 2008 in New Orleans.

The Raiders tabbed their first defensive-minded head coach since John Madden in Dennis Allen. A game like this helps to show how much that mentality has helped improve that side of the football. Don't get me wrong, stopping the Saints is tough for any team and we will give up our share of points. But it is not just the yards, it is how a team gets them that matters. It will help for the Raider offense to possess the ball, but for me, I want to see if nearly 3/4ths of the way into the season, if the Raiders will have made strides to play competitively and consistently against what I think is the best offense in football.

Week 12: At Cincinnati

The last time the Raider Nation was hearing from Hue Jackson, he was throwing everyone short of his wife and children under the bus after the Week 17 disaster against San Diego in an effort to save his job.

After Reggie McKenzie fired him, he resurfaced in Cincinnati as their secondary and special teams assistant. No, not a head coach. No, not an offensive coordinator. No not even an assistant offensive coordinator. Assistant secondary and special teams coach.

Mind you, this is not a swipe at him as an offensive mind. I think he did wonders to improve the Raiders in 2010 and while they regressed some in 2011, there were factors out of his control. But the man had hubris (or HUEbris if you will) and an arrogance that probably repelled teams away from hiring him. Now, he helps the team he indirectly improved at our expense, the Cincinnati Bengals.

This game has a chance to be cold and windy as December's in Ohio typically are. The Raiders have not won in Paul Brown Stadium and this may end up being a must-win game to stay in the playoff race. 

Week 13: Home vs. Cleveland

On the surface, this looks like a win. Cleveland, after rivalry games and tough intra-conference games, seems like a perfect "relax" game with the brutality of the schedule thus far. And that is exactly why it frightens me. While I don't think Cleveland is going to be a great team by any stretch in 2012, they are feisty. Remember, they had the ball inside the Raider 45 last year with a chance to tie late. So if the Raiders take this game lightly, the chance of a letdown is ripe.

Offensively, Colt McCoy is a developmental quarterback. He has not had weapons around him though that should chance with the addition of either running back Trent Richardson from Alabama or Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon in the draft. The key is, will the Raiders avoid the mistakes that allow teams to stay in games they should not be in. Last year, they let up and allowed Cleveland to come back. But it was an unforced error that changed the dynamic of not just the 2011 season, but seasons going forward. Jason Campbell's ill-advised dive and broken collarbone triggered the trade for Carson Palmer and his departure to Chicago.

Last year's game also was the first at home since the death of Al Davis. While the emotions will not be nearly as raw as 2011, the importance could be heightened. 

Week 14: Home vs. Denver (Thursday Night Football)

Showdown number two against Peyton Manning and the Broncos takes place on a Thursday Night in front of a national television audience. Regardless of records, I have no doubt the Black Hole will be alive for this game. This represents the first mid or late season national home game for the Raiders since the 2005 finale against the New York Giants. So there will be no problem with the excitement level. I have a hunch this game will be a last gasp effort for the Raiders to stay with Denver for the division lead.

There is just no quantifying the impact No. 18 will have on the Broncos, so if we have to play spoiler, the same formula will be in play: pound the football and keep him on the sidelines. At home, I would like to see the Raiders bring more blitzes to pressure Manning into earlier throws. He has always been more susceptible to mistakes on the road and threw two interceptions in his only visit to Oakland in 2010. Turnovers and third down conversions will determine the outcome of this game. That is why Carson Palmer is so crucial. He has to keep the chains moving and cannot make the mistakes that cost them last year.

Week 15: Home vs. Kansas City

The last of three straight home games and the home finale for 2012 matches the Raiders and the Chiefs for the 108th time. Again, records do not matter. Injuries do not matter. This is one of those games where, if you can not win another game, you want to beat the Chiefs. Sadly, many of the recent December games have been letdowns for the Raider faithful.

To beat the Chiefs at home, they Raiders have to play mistake free football. 28-0 on the surface seems like a destruction. But the reality is, two of those touchdowns were gifts from the Raiders quarterbacks. The Raiders marched on a drive and could not score a touchdown with four cracks from inside the five yard line. It is always the sum of small things that determine the winner in this series. This game will be no different. Stopping the run, limiting penalties, and hopefully establishing Darren McFadden late in December will be keys.

Week 16: At Carolina

This will be a fun game. The thought of seeing this defense challenged by the dynamic Cam Newton should be, if nothing else, wildly entertaining. I expect the Panthers to be improved and Newton could be a huge reason why. Blowing away all expectations, he had undoubtedly the best statistical rookie season by a quarterback in NFL history. Now the trick will be getting wins and sustaining the success with a target squarely on the #1 on his jersey.

For the Raiders, however, the key will be less about Newton and his all-world wide receiver Steve Smith, and more about the running game of Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. If they run the ball, it really won't matter much what Newton does. Offensively, the Raiders should be able to move the football. Scoring the ball is going to determine a win or a loss. They have to score touchdowns against a defense like Carolina's. They are constructed to bend, but not break. We will have to break them to the tune of around 28 points for victory.

Week 17: At San Diego

The year ends where it ended last year: against the hated Chargers. Except this time, we take the trek down to San Diego. That sounds daunting until you realize that in most games at Qualcomm Stadium, the stands are typically half filled with Raider fans. Last year, the Nation drowned out much of the Charger crowd en route to a big win on national television. Realistically, I do not expect this Raider team to be competing for a division title or playoff berth.

There is too much turnover in year one of a complete overhaul. However, there is nothing that says we can not return the favor to the Chargers for ending our playoff chances from last year. There will be no Michael Bush to gain 242 total yards of offense. But we can only hope that Darren McFadden (see the theme here?) will be available for the final game of the regular season.

If not, Carson Palmer can still duplicate the best performance he had as a Raider. His 299 yards and two touchdowns are even more impressive when you realize he got them on only 14 completions. For whatever reason, the Raiders defense has been much more effective against the Chargers on the road. They will need to play big again and there would be nothing sweeter than payback to end the 2012 season. 

Summary

It's time to embark on a new era of Oakland Raiders football. The games are set, but the identity is still a mystery. I want to know what you think about the schedule, the prospects for the season, whatever is on your minds. As always, go Raiders!