Brian Wilson Elbow Injury: Fantasy Impact of SF Giants' Closer-by-Committee

As you’ve probably heard by now, San Francisco Giants’ closer and Taco Bell black-ops pitchman Brian Wilson is “likely” done for the year, in the words of Manager Bruce Bochy.

Carl Steward of the Bay Area News Group reported yesterday that an MRI revealed “structural issues” in the ligament of his right elbow.

Wilson will consult renowned specialist Dr. James Andrews, the man no pitcher ever wants to face, but all signs point to a season-ending Tommy John surgery for him. This would be the second such surgery of his career, having had one in 2003 while at LSU.

So what does this mean for your fantasy team? Smart players should already have the handcuff for Wilson on their roster.

The obvious add is Sergio Romo, who will help your ERA (a tidy 1.50 last year) and WHIP (sub 1.00 each of the last two years). Romo also racks up the Ks, striking out 70 in just 48 innings last season, while walking a minuscule five batters.

But those smart fantasy players will be horrified to learn that Bochy doesn’t plan to promote Romo to the closer role but will instead use a closer-by-committee.

As reported by Steward, "It'll be similar to last year when Willie was out," Bochy said. "We'll use everybody, go with the hot hand. (Santiago) Casilla may be saving some games. (Sergio) Romo and (Javier) Lopez, we think we're in good hands there.”

Obviously, Bochy does not realize that all those pitchers do not fit into the one roster spot previously filled by Wilson on fantasy teams.

If we look back to last year, you can see how messy the Giants bullpen is without Wilson. Wilson began the 2011 season on the DL and then headed there again in August after one Dr. Andrews diagnosed elbow inflammation that would not require surgery.

In 2011, seven different Giants pitchers recorded saves, including Santiago Casilla with six, Ramon Ramirez with four, Jeremy Affeldt with three and stud Sergio Romo only recording one, the same as journeyman Javier Lopez and AARP member Guillermo Mota.

That is quite simply a fantasy nightmare. And according to Bochy, we’re in for something similar this year.

Ramon Ramirez is now a New York Met, but every other Giants pitcher to record a save last year is still with the team.

And you can add to that equation minor league right-hander Heath Hembree. Bochy was already singing his praises during the spring, saying, "He has a power arm that few guys have…. He can pitch in the big leagues a long time if he stays healthy. It's just a matter of his development."

Giants’ fans will be clamoring for a savior without Wilson, and a promising rookie always looks attractive. The Giants staff would probably prefer to bring the No. 3 prospect in their system (as per Baseball America) along slowly, but it’s hard to ignore Hembree’s stats.

The 23-year-old has 43 saves in 67 innings in the minors, not to mention 104 Ks with just 26 walks and a 1.60 ERA.

Clearly, the Giants’ closer position is very crowded once you remove Wilson from the ninth inning equation. And fantasy players should want nothing to do with closer-by-committee situations.

If we look back to last year, countless fantasy players learned their lesson by looking for save opportunities from one of these committees: Cardinals (eight pitchers to record a save), Dodgers (seven), Mets (six, other than future Brewer, K-Rod), Blue Jays (six), White Sox (four), and, oh right, the Giants (see above).

Even the relievers who inherited the sole closer spot due to injury were not to be trusted. They didn’t earn the closer spot initially for a reason. Mark Melancon blew five saves in 25 chances, and Matt Capps blew nine saves in 24 tries.

Playing waiver wire roulette looking for closers is a risky game. With some skill and a lot of luck, it can make you a champion. But some bullpens are fantasy poison, and few things are worse for a fantasy team than a crowded closer committee.

Just as with the mess up in Boston’s bullpen (Daniel Bard is inexplicably their fourth starter, but at least the bullpen isn’t as ugly as their current outfield), the impending committee Bochy plans to use in San Francisco should be given a wide berth by fantasy GMs.

If you have Sergio Romo, appreciate his stats, but don’t hope for dozens of saves. You can take a flier on Santiago Casilla, but do so at your own risk.

Ditto Jeremy Affeldt. Ditto Javier Lopez. You get the idea.

Farewell, Brian Wilson. We hardly knew ye.