Fantasy Baseball: 10 Players Worth Reaching for at Your Draft

Experienced fantasy baseball participants, especially those with a track record of success, will tell you how important it is to have a strategy for how you are going to build your team.

There are many ways to win your fantasy league, but it’s imperative that you pick players that fit the blueprint that you’ve drawn up for yourself.

There are essentially two types of players that will elevate your chances of executing your strategy to perfection: 

1. The superstars who fit neatly into anyone’s blueprint, and
2. Specialists who are so good in one or two categories that they are a must have in your lineup.

Regardless of which category these players fall into or what strategy you use, players on this list generally have a few things in common. 

They have track records that indicate that their performances are not a fluke or, even better, are trending upwards. 

There is a fair amount of stability regarding peripheral factors like the lineup they hit in, the league or division they play in, or their home park. 

You can count on them being in the lineup everyday due to relatively clean injury histories.

If you play in a roto league, the extent to which you’d value these players may change. But based on a standard 5x5, head-to head scoring platform, here are 10 players that are worth reaching (snake draft) or overpaying for (auction) in your 2012 draft.

WARNING: If you’ve read, and agree with ESPN.com Senior Writer Eric Karabell’s March 16th blog entry titled My "Do Not Draft" List, you will not like some of the names mentioned here (order determined by projected draft position from highest to lowest).

Matt Kemp: Los Angeles Dodgers, Outfielder

No matter what format your league uses (unless it’s AL only), it’s pretty hard to list Kemp as a guy you should, or even can, reach for. That said, he is not the consensus number one pick by most experts, so his presence on this list is more about making a strong case for why he should be the only player that you consider with the number one pick, or that you overpay for. 

There aren’t many players in baseball that are going to give you dominant numbers in all five batting categories. In fact, there are only two, maybe three players that qualify for this list: Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton (maybe) and Kemp.

Ellsbury finally lived up to the hype, and managed to stay on the field, in 2011, matching Kemp category for category. Despite the fact that he hits at the top of a much better lineup than Kemp, he’s a notch below the NL MVP runner-up for two reasons: injury history and doubts about his power. 

If you study his swing, it’s clear that Ellsbury’s power is not a fluke, but I still wouldn’t expect him to consistently hit 30 home runs given his frame. 20-25 is more realistic. 

Kemp will almost certainly continue to hit 35 or more home runs a year for the foreseeable future, and he hasn’t played less than 155 games in a season since becoming a full-time starter in 2008.

Upton is an interesting case because, at 24, he’s still getting better. But despite hitting 31 home runs and scoring 105 runs last season, his 21 stolen bases, .289 average, and 88 runs batted in aren’t in Kemp’s league. Upton has the better long-term prognosis because he is nearly five years younger, but for 2012, Kemp is a clear favorite. 

So what about the two players who many consider drafting ahead of Kemp—Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera?  

Pujols is still a top-five fantasy player without question, but he’s clearly at the point in his career where age and injuries are legitimate concerns. He’s likely done producing double digit steals, and all of his other fantasy relevant statistics are worse than Kemp’s numbers from last year.

Miguel Cabrera, who many are considering the number one overall pick, will never steal bases, and while he’s still only 28-years old (turning 29 in April), you can’t make the case that he’s getting better, he’s merely ridiculously consistent.

Kemp on the other hand, is a player just coming into his own.

Unlike guys like Cabrera and Pujols, Kemp has not been seriously committed to baseball since his teenage years. In fact, one could argue that it wasn’t until last season, following a disastrous 2010, that he actually began taking the game seriously, and once he did, the results were staggering.

Kemp finished in the top four in all of MLB in runs (4th), home runs (T-3rd), RBIs (1st) and stolen bases (T-4th). If that isn’t impressive enough, he finished tied for seventh in batting average for all players with a minimum of 537 at bats (the number reached by NL batting champ Jose Reyes), and the large sample size matters because more at bats obviously translates to a greater impact on your team.

Kemp enjoys the game, and is genuinely excited about maxing out his potential, as evidenced by his proclamation that he’s targeting a 50/50 season this year.

I wouldn’t draft him with that goal in mind, but the numbers clearly suggest that he should be the first, or highest priced, player selected in every league.

Jose Bautista: Toronto Blue Jays, Outfielder/Third Baseman

After two standout seasons in Toronto, I think it’s safe to remove the fluke tag from Bautista and give the man his props.

Yes his home run total dropped by 11 (to 43) in 2011, but he also improved his batting average by 42 points to an impressive .302. While it’s unlikely that he will reach that level again, it’s fair to say that he won’t be a liability in that category, increasing his overall value. 

The more encouraging sign for Bautista is the fact that the line up around him is steadily improving. Colby Rasmus is primed for a breakout in his first full-season in Toronto, and the talented Brett Lawrie will finally take over for a full season at third base this year. Add to that the emerging Eric Thames in left field and it’s likely that you will see Bautista’s RBI totals rise back above the 120-plus level he put up in 2010.

On top of all that, he still has eligibility at third base, giving your fantasy lineup increased flexibility.

Robinson Cano: New York Yankees, Second Baseman

Cano is the cream of the crop at a position with lots of intriguing talent, but just as much inconsistency. 

Still only 29, he has now had three consecutive seasons in which he’s scored at least 104 runs, hit 25 or more home runs and hit no worse than .302. His RBI totals have also increased in each of the last four seasons, to a career high 118 in 2011. 

There are other phenomenal talents at second base like Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips and Rickie Weeks. But all five of those players, as well as rising stars like Danny Espinosa and Dustin Ackley, come with big question marks surrounding their health, or are such a drag in one statistical category (average in the case of Kinsler and Uggla) that it offsets their other talents. 

It’ll be nearly impossible to create a lineup without a hole or two, but at a position where only one player truly doesn’t hurt you, Cano is worth reaching for a bit.

Justin Upton: Arizona Diamondbacks, Outfielder

The case for Upton is more about what he can become than what he is. 

His 2011 stat line was impressive, as he was one of only six players to score 100 runs, hit 30 home runs and steal 20 bases. However, of that group, he was last in stolen bases (21), and his 89 RBIs was not a total befitting of a top-10 talent. 

All that said, Upton is only 24 years old. He now has four full seasons of major league experience to his credit, and last season he started to show the maturity and leadership that the Diamondbacks hoped he’d embrace, along with the responsibility of being the number one pick of the draft and the face of the franchise. 

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Upton’s home run, RBI and batting average numbers increase this year to the point of making him a perennial first round fantasy selection. I’d make that leap this year.

Clayton Kershaw: Los Angeles Dodgers, Starting Pitcher

I normally have my foot planted firmly in the don’t-overpay-for-pitching camp, however, Kershaw is a four-stat fantasy pitching stud. I’d almost certainly pick him over Justin Verlander, and here’s why.

Like Verlander, Kershaw won the pitching Triple Crown in his league last year, leading the Nation League in wins, strikeouts and ERA, while also leading the NL in WHIP. He finished with only two less Ks than Verlander despite pitching 18 less innings, and he won only three less games, which is impressive given the Dodgers' mediocrity in a tough NL West Division, whereas Verlander dominated in a less than competitive AL Central. 

Verlander is a fine pitcher, and unquestionably one of the AL’s best, but his 2.40 era last year was almost a full run better than his previous career best. Hard to believe he’ll be that good again, especially in a home park that isn’t known as a pitcher’s paradise. 

Verlander may approach 30 wins this year with the lineup around him and against a division that hasn’t improved since last season, but expect all his other stats to increase a bit.

Kershaw, on the other hand, simply continued what has been a nonstop trend towards becoming the class of the National League. At 24, he’s posted three straight seasons of at least 30 starts, an ERA of 2.91 or lower and a batting average against no higher than .214, numbers that suggest 2011 was not an anomaly.

Kershaw plays in a pitcher friendly park and the Dodgers are slowly improving, despite competing in a tough division.

Again, I don’t advocate overpaying for pitching, but if you must do it, Kershaw is the guy to reach for.

Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton: Miami Marlins, Outfielder

Stanton could be a younger version of 2010’s Jose Bautista, and who wouldn’t be interested in that? 

The Marlins right fielder was projected to deliver light-tower power at the Major League level, and he has not disappointed during his first two years in "The Show."

Stanton followed up an enticing rookie year in 2010, with 34 home runs in 2011. It wouldn’t shock me to see him hit 50 this year.

Stanton will likely hit clean up behind Marlins third baseman Hanley Ramirez and new short stop Jose Reyes. With those two on base ahead of him, Stanton should easily surpass last year's 87 runs batted in.  

He’s still only 22 years old, so he has room to develop into a slightly more complete hitter and try and get his average into the .270 to .280  range.

If Stanton can minimize his drag on your team’s batting average while delivering elite home run and RBI numbers, he’ll end the 2012 season as a fantasy star for years to come.

Mike Napoli: Texas Rangers, Catcher/First Baseman

And now for the first of the anti-Karabell selections. 

Like pitchers, I also don’t believe in overpaying for catchers, especially ones with the limited track record that Napoli has. But he is not just a catcher, and that’s where his fantasy appeal comes into play.  

Napoli finished with the league’s highest batting average after the All-Star Break last season hitting a robust .383. It would be foolish to expect him to produce that line over a full season, but another .300-plus season would not be a stretch, a nice compliment to his power. 

The biggest reasons to value Napoli over other strong hitting catchers like Bryan McCann or Joe Mauer, is his relative health, and his position flexibility.

McCann is easily the most consistent fantasy catcher in the game, but when he’s not behind the plate, there’s nowhere for him to go. He’s also caught more innings than anyone not named Yadier Molina over the past four seasons, so the wear on his body is bound to take it’s tole at some point soon. 

The Rangers will certainly give Napoli time at first base and at DH to keep him fresh, and to keep his bat in the lineup.  

Mauer has the most upside of the three, but the Twins haven’t showed the commitment to helping him stay healthy and keeping his bat in the lineup by any means necessary. 

All this is without even mentioning the fact that Napoli plays in a hitter’s park, and hits in the best lineup in the majors. His presence in the heart of that order and his eligibility at first base is are enough to separate him from McCann and Mauer. 

Don’t be afraid to make Napoli the first catcher taken in your draft.

Craig Kimbrel: Atlanta Braves, Closer

Another player that on the surface appears to be a one stat wonder, but Kimbrel is certainly not that. 

Paying for saves, even if they come from the ageless and reliable arm of Mariano Rivera, is arguably the biggest mistake that fantasy owners make, but Kimbrel is that rare reliever that puts up dominant numbers in four categories.

The Braves are a young and improving team, so it’s not unreasonable to expect another 35 saves or more from Kimbrel. But what you’re really paying for are his ridiculous strikeouts, era, and WHIP. 

Kimbrel struck out 127 batters in only 77.1 innings pitched last season. The next closest reliever had 104 in 11 more innings. He also had a microscopic ERA (2.10) and WHIP (1.04), both of which will help your team, even if the effects are mitigated by his limited innings. 

If you decide to wait a little longer than most to start taking starting pitchers, having a reliever like Kimbrel can help offset that decision a bit.

Stephen Strasburg: Washington Nationals, Starting Pitcher

Some may strongly object to reaching or overpaying for a pitcher that will more than likely not be available for the fantasy playoffs, but you gotta get there first right?  

The phrase “dance with the girl you brought” doesn’t necessarily lead to success in fantasy sports, because athletes are subject to late season drop offs or resurgence. Baseball takes this to the extreme with late season call ups and September roster expansions, so a late season wonder like Jesus Guzman may be more important to you winning a championship than riding Adrian Gonzalez for the first 75 percent of the season.  

Given his value to the franchise’s future, and looking at the way the Nationals handled Jordan Zimmerman after Tommy John surgery, Strasburg will more than likely enter 2012 on a strict innings pitched limit, maybe somewhere in the 150-160 range. But those innings he does pitch will be spectacular.

In the 11 games that Strasburg pitched in between the minors and majors late last season, all signs pointed to him being the dominant starter Washington thought it was getting with the number one pick in the 2010 draft.

While proven starters like Justin Verlander, Kershaw and Roy Halladay will likely go among the first 20-25 picks, Strasburg may match their performance for as long as the Nationals throw him out there this season.

Michael Bourn: Atlanta Braves, Outfielder

Another guy that Karabell is avoiding. He sees Bourn as another one category guy, but I see a player with above average production in three categories, one of which he provides best-in-the-league numbers. 

As Karabell pointed out, Bourn is only a career .271 hitter, but that stat is misleading. Other than an abysmal 2008 during which he hit .229, he has hit at least .277 in four of the five other seasons (discounting 2006 where he only received 8 at bats).  

Yes last season’s .294 average was a career high, but it wasn’t so far outside of the norm that we should expect a steep regression. Something closer to .285 might be more reasonable, but that would still be well above the 2011 league average of .260 making him an asset there. 

We already know about Bourn’s unmatched base stealing potential, as he’s stolen 41, 61, 52 and 61 bases in each of the past four seasons, respectively.

No other player in the game is consistently approaching those numbers, so if you want to offset your team’s lack of speed at other positions, Bourn is a good player to have on your roster. 

The one area that I could see Bourn making a bit of a leap in this year, which is the main reason I think he’s worth reaching for, is his runs scored. He scored 94 runs last season while spending two-thirds of the year hitting at the top of the league’s worst lineup in Houston, and the other one-third without the benefit of a productive or healthy Jason Heyward in Atlanta. 

Bourn has only scored as many as 90 runs one other time in his career (2009). But it stands to reason that a full season in Atlanta, with a better Heyward and an improving Freddie Freeman hitting behind him, we’ll finally see him top 100 runs scored.  

Put it all together and you have a player that, at 29 years old, has room to grow enough to make him a fantasy player worth targeting in your drafts.