Major League Baseball: The Boston Red Sox Will Miss the Playoffs

After possessing a commanding nine-game lead in the American League wild-card race after September 3, the Boston Red Sox unceremoniously bowed out of postseason contention with a 7-19 finish.

A 4-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on the final day of the regular season sealed their fate and ensured they would become the first team to miss the playoffs after holding a nine-game advantage entering September.

Red Sox nation hasn’t forgotten its humiliating defeat, and this season with new commander-in-chief Bobby Valentine at the helm, and an additional wild-card berth up for grabs, hopes to be playing well into October. Unfortunately for the third straight year, Boston will not make the playoffs.

The Red Sox lack the firepower or arms to reach the postseason. Center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury posted career-bests in batting average (.321), home runs (32) and RBI (105) in 2011, but he will come back to earth. Like Brady Anderson 15 years earlier, Ellsbury didn’t just improve his power numbers, he slaughtered them, never before topping nine home runs or driving in more than 60 runs. Like Anderson, he’ll regress towards his mean.

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez’s power numbers are also diminishing. His home run totals have dropped from 40 to 31 to 27 last season, even though he played half of his games in boutique Fenway Park compared to cavernous Petco Park. To be fair Gonzalez’s RBI and hit totals did rise in 2011.

Kevin Youkilis is starting to break down. The third baseman hasn’t played more 136 games since 2009 and has seen his home run totals come down from 27 to 17 during the stretch.

Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz continue to produce at All-Star rates.

Oh, yeah don’t forget about how good Carl Crawford was in 2011.

When the Red Sox’s pitching staff wasn’t pounding beers and fried chicken in the clubhouse, their hurlers were coughing up a family-sized bucket worth of runs. Boston’s ERA sky rocketed to a remarkably pathetic 5.84 in September.

On the bump, Boston’s biggest loss is closer Jonathan Papelbon. The colorful right hander was 4-1 with 31 saves with a 0.93 WHIP and 2.94 ERA.

Who does Boston turn to now? Daniel Bard? The volatile rightie was 2-9 with a 3.33 ERA in 2011. He allowed an earned run in 6 of 11 September appearances, including two or more on four occasions. On September 7, he allowed five earned runs in a 11-10 loss to Toronto. Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon combined for 44 saves and 7 blown saves.

In the rotation, Josh Beckett is coming off a terrific campaign. Unfortunately, Beckett has largely been hit or miss over the last decade and has not put together consecutive seasons with a sub-four ERA since 2003-2004.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-3, 5.30, 1.47) is coming back from Tommy John surgery, so who knows how many quality innings he’ll log. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholtz are studs.

The opposition has also improved. The Texas Rangers signed Japanese pitching phenom Yu Darvish. The Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim added Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson in fortifying their lineup and pitching staff. New York added starter Michael Pineda and more importantly dumped the muddling A.J. Burnett. Tampa Bay will send blue chipper Matt Moore to the hill for more innings, while Minnesota gets Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau back. Oh, and Detroit added Prince Fielder.

Finally there’s Valentine. There’s no question he’s a downgrade from Terry Francona, who may have lost the clubhouse and was right to depart. Still, Valentine, who has not managed a MLB team since 2002, is a step backwards. Valentine is a solid 1,117–1,072 in 15 seasons with the Texas Rangers and New York Mets, but he has only been to the playoffs twice. He did guide the 2000 Mets to the World Series, but lost to the Yankees 4-1.

Valentine is a sarcastic, combative  and at times borders on abrasive. Yes he’s tough and gritty, but how will that full-throttle, no-compromise personality play in a clubhouse accustomed to the mild-mannered Francona. Maybe it will be good for the Red Sox? Maybe it won’t?

Once again Red Sox Nation, this isn’t your year.