NFL Free Agency 2012: Projecting the Top 25 Paydays of 2012 Class

If the NFL Draft is like a lottery, then free agency is an auction house.

Some teams get into a bidding war and grossly overpay for someone (re: Albert Haynesworth), while others find some overlooked treasure and pay next to nothing.

This year in many ways is no different. A number of quality players will be shopping for new teams because their old ones lack sufficient cap room. Some players just became a little long in the tooth or have injury questions that say, "Buyer Beware!"

With the new bargaining agreement in place and more structured rookie contracts though, teams will be more likely to spend those extra dollars in free agency.

And here are the top 25 players who should reap the rewards.

1. Drew Brees, Franchise Tagged by New Orleans Saints

As if New Orleans didn't have enough trouble this season.

In 2006, Drew Brees and the Saints were a match made in heaven. A perennially-losing franchise in a city still reeling from Hurricane Katrina brings in an underdog quarterback who happens to be one of the best people in professional sports.

And yes, Brees was an underdog. Scouts knocked on his height coming out of Purdue. Then he suffered a torn labrum while under the franchise tag in 2005. Miami turned down the chance to sign Brees because of injury concerns.

Since then, Brees brought the Saints a championship, broke Dan Marino's single-season passing record and worked relentlessly on and off the field to revive the city of New Orleans. The Mannings might have grown up in the Big Easy, but Drew Brees is New Orleans' favorite son.

And that's what makes this year's troubles all the more painful.

First the NFL announces Greg Williams ran a program that paid players for injuring opponents. Then the Saints slap the franchise tag on Brees, unable to come to terms with their most valuable player. Not only did this reportedly infuriate Brees, but it will likely spell the end of two other players' careers in New Orleans (more on that later).

The Saints haven't had this much bad publicity in years and need to turn the tide fast.

They'll do that the only way they really can right now and write Brees a fat check. Brees will close out his career in New Orleans and their fans won't riot in the streets.

2. Mario Williams, Unsigned

What could be better for Mario Williams' career than being a free agent as one of the better 4-3 pass-rushers in the NFL?

Proving that you can cut it as a 3-4 outside linebacker, too.

Williams may have only played five games at outside linebacker due to injury, but his five sacks during that time will entice plenty of teams to look at locking up the 2006 NFL Draft's first overall pick for the latter half of his career.

If that doesn't seal the deal, his 53 sacks in five-and-a-half seasons should do the trick. Expect the Chargers to bid heavily for Williams' services; San Diego's lacked an elite blind-side threat since Shawne Merriman's injury in 2008.

3. Carl Nicks, Unsigned

Drew Brees wasn't the only one who didn't want to receive the franchise tag in New Orleans.

Carl Nicks came out days before Monday's deadline on Twitter stating emphatically that he didn't want to be tagged.

Instead, the Saints can keep Brees but will likely lose one of his best blockers instead.

Nicks established himself as one of the best interior linemen in the league over the last couple years and now stands ready to cash in big.

New Orleans will likely attempt to bring Nicks back into the fold, but plenty of other teams have greater need and more cap room to lock up Nicks with a huge contract.

The Kansas City Chiefs should be one of New Orleans' top competitors here. The Chiefs offense took a big hit after Brian Waters' departure last year. What's more, only tackle Branden Albert could be considered a large salary cap hit for the offensive line.

4. Robert Mathis, Signed by Indianapolis Colts; 4 Years, $36 Million

With a new coach, new quarterback and new scheme, it appears the Indianapolis Colts are ready to start a brand new chapter in their franchise's history.

They aren't cutting ties with all of the old guard, though, as they re-signed Robert Mathis for another four years to continue terrorizing quarterbacks.

Committing $9 million a year to a 31-year-old player who'll be learning a new defensive position seems a bit of a risk, but with a player of Mathis' caliber, there's no sense in starting from scratch.

Mathis posted no less than seven sacks in a season since his rookie year, and should pair nicely with Jerry Hughes for a solid linebacker tandem on the edges. Players like Tamba Hali and Mario Williams already paved the way for the transition from defensive end.

The Colts will probably cut Dwight Freeney in the near future to save cap room, which made retaining Mathis all the more vital to recovering from last year's dismal performance.

5. Arian Foster, Signed by Houston Texans; 5 Years, $43.5 Million

Houston paid handsomely for their former undrafted rookie free agent this season, but the Texans received the better end of the deal on this one.

Arian Foster dominated opposing defenses the last two years, averaging better than 100 yards/game despite only starting 13 games each season. Foster represents the first consistent rushing threat in Texans history, and takes considerable pressure off of Matt Schaub and the passing game.

Even beyond that, though, Foster is an extremely intelligent individual who should improve with age. As he progresses in his career, expect Foster to compensate for eroding skills by finding holes in the defense rather than creating them. The best example of this would be Marcus Allen during his years in Kansas City.

Foster will more than earn his money in the coming years, and Houston will count this deal a bargain.

6. D'Qwell Jackson, Signed by Cleveland Browns; 5 Years, $42.5 Million

Teams interested in D'Qwell Jackson should have jumped to sign him before the start of last year.

Injured only six games into the season in 2009 and out throughout 2010, Jackson decided to stay with the Cleveland Browns. He rewarded them with a stellar year in 2011 with a staggering 158 combined tackles.

Jackson is one of the top inside linebackers in the league, and Cleveland made sure to lock him up early this offseason. Jackson will turn 29 this year, so his new contract should take him almost through to retirement.

7. Paul Soliai, Unsigned

A solid talent in a premium position, the Dolphins could no longer hold on to Paul Soliai.

Unable to lock in a contract last year, Miami franchised Soliai despite the inflated tag value from Albert Haynesworth's $100 million contract. This paid Soliai over $12 million last year.

Franchising Soliai again would have cost nearly $15 million this time around, so the Dolphins decided to let him walk rather than compromise their cap number any further.

Soliai represents the prototypical 3-4 nose tackle. He's big, aggressive and at 355 pounds, he constantly commands the attention of multiple blockers.

He'll also command a serious paycheck, too. Soliai won't land anything close to $15 million per year, but with nose tackles always at a premium, he won't have to worry about putting food on the table.

8. Marshawn Lynch, Signed by Seattle Seahawks; 4 Years, $32 Million

The Seattle Seahawks looks like they know what type of player they have in Marshawn Lynch.

Perhaps they'd like to clue the rest of us in, because his stats show a running back only one year removed from a three-season stretch of minimal production and injury-shortened seasons.

Lynch came up big for the Seahawks in the 2011 regular season. He runs hard and fights for extra yardage, as shown in his 67-yard touchdown run against the Saints in the 2010 playoffs.

But will Lynch continue to play like that for Seattle?

The Seahawks need to address their quarterback situation soon to keep opponents from placing eight men in the box against Lynch. Last year he was able to surprise them, but 2012 won't afford him the same luxury.

9. Brandon Carr, Unsigned

The Chiefs, meanwhile, had their own issues with too many quality free agents and not enough franchise tags. Having already signed Stanford Routt to a hefty three-year contract, Kansas City decided to let Brandon Carr see just how much money is out there in another city.

For a 25-year-old quality cornerback, the answer to that is "plenty."

Carr slipped under the radar in the 2008 NFL Draft with Kansas City selecting him in the fifth round to play in Herm Edwards' Tampa-2 defense. He struggled in 2009 to adjust after the Chiefs' shift to a 3-4 defense but exploded on the scene the last two years. Paired with Brandon Flowers, the two formed one of the top cornerback tandems in the league.

Don't expect Carr to go unnoticed this year. Already rumors claim the Dallas Cowboys are deeply interested in Carr's services, and with good reason. The Cowboys are just one of the teams in need of a quality corner, and Carr tops the list at his position.

10. Ahmad Brooks, Signed by San Francisco 49ers; 6 Years, $44.5 Million

The San Francisco 49ers apparently thought it important to hold on to their own talent following their deep playoff run last year.

To that end, they signed Ahmad Brooks to a six-year contract that represents the biggest overpayment in free agency so far this year.

It's not that Brooks is a bad player. The last three years he's averaged six sacks per season and at 27 should have plenty of good years ahead of him.

But he isn't a standout, even though they're paying him like he is one.

Patrick Willis, one of the best interior linebackers in the league, signed for seven years and just over $53 million. The by-year difference between those two contracts isn't much, and Willis is a much better talent than Brooks.

But there's something to be said for going with a known commodity, and perhaps the 49ers coaching staff knows something about Brooks' potential that we don't.

Regardless of whether or not the 49ers overpaid for Brooks, they should again set the standard for defenses in 2012.

11. Stephen Tulloch, Unsigned

One of the top middle linebackers in the league, Stephen Tulloch somehow ended up in Detroit on a one-year contract.

A productive player since breaking into the starting lineup in Tennessee four years ago, Tulloch never missed a game and dominated the middle of the field the last two years. In Detroit, he racked up 111 tackles and a pair of interceptions last year.

The Lions picked Tulloch up for a song and dance last year. They won't get off so easily this time around.

At 27, Tulloch easily has another six years ahead of him and should find himself the recipient of a contract comparable to the $42 million D'Qwell Jackson recently signed.

12. Steve Johnson, Signed by Buffalo Bills; 5 Years, $36.25 Million

Just think what kind of money Steve Johnson would've received if he could keep his hands on the ball and his mouth shut.

Buffalo's overdramatic and explosive receiver finds himself considerably richer this season. His $36 million over five years is nothing to sneer at, but falls short of what Sidney Rice brought in last year with Seattle.

Thing is, Rice only has one solid year in the NFL, while Johnson just posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. So why did his contract fall five million short of Rice's?

Well, that's what I like to call a "Mouth Tax." Johnson's proven to have a knack for saying the wrong thing at the wrong time, and it doesn't bring much good publicity to the Bills.

His habit of dropping key passes didn't help either. In the end, though, this deal worked out best for both sides. Johnson squared away a respectable contract and Buffalo got a bargain for their top receiver.

13. Peyton Manning, Unsigned

After 14 years playing for the Indianapolis Colts, Peyton Manning finds himself in unfamiliar territory: meeting with other teams to figure out where he'll play this season.

The Colts released Manning to save themselves a truckload of money as they enter the Andrew Luck era. While an aged, injured Manning isn't worth $28 million, he'll certainly command a heavy price to whichever team he closes out his career with.

After all, Manning is still one of the most accomplished and proficient quarterbacks ever to play the game. No one in history could read (or pick apart) a defense quite like him, and teams who are only a good quarterback away from the Super Bowl (Jets, Chiefs?) would pay plenty now if it meant holding a Lombardi Trophy in February.

14. Red Bryant, Unsigned

At first glance, Red Bryant doesn't show as anything special. His stat line only boasts 32 tackles, one sack and two interceptions for 2010, and he only broke into the starting lineup last year.

But in Bryant's new position as a five-technique defensive end, your success isn't measured in the stat line.

Bryant stepped up nicely in his transition from a 4-3 defensive tackle and should land a hefty contract from teams looking to upgrade their defensive line.

With the number of teams running the 3-4 defense, there should be no lack of suitors.

15. Stanford Routt, Signed by Kansas City Chiefs; 3 Years, $19.5 Million

Stanford Routt didn't land the same length of contract as other players so far, but his $19 million over three years is nothing to sneer at.

The Chiefs bought quite an insurance policy in case Brandon Carr didn't re-sign with the team. And while Routt is a solid defender who should do even better playing alongside Brandon Flowers, his age and body of work make him a less appealing option compared to Carr.

The biggest red flag on Routt, though, are his penalties. With 17 flags thrown his way last year, Chiefs fans signed a player that will draw a referee's attention even if he plays perfect football.

His shortcomings aside, signing Routt ensures Kansas City will maintain their high level of talent in the secondary for 2012.

16. Matt Flynn, Unsigned

For a player with only two starts in his career, Matt Flynn's received quite a bit of press.

But then, that's what happens when you throw for a combined 731 yards and nine touchdowns in those two games.

Flynn is this year's Matt Cassel, Matt Schaub or Matt Hasselbeck—a backup quarterback who impresses well enough to earn a shot as another team's starter.

In fact, maybe they should just start calling that type of person a "Matt-back."

Considering the influx of rookie quarterback the last two years, Flynn might not have as strong a market as he'd like. Six rookie quarterbacks projected as starters in last year's draft, with at least three more to add to those numbers in 2012's draft.

Still, Flynn will find a team willing to not only give him a chance to start, but also a lot of money in the process.

17. Tracy Porter, Unsigned

Another one of New Orleans' heroes from Super Bowl XLIII, Tracy Porter finds himself facing an uncertain future.

The former second-round pick sealed their championship win over the Indianapolis Colts with an interception, but can't seem to stay healthy throughout the season. Porter's never played more than 14 regular-season games in a season, and never started more than 12.

His injury history—particularly last year's neck scare—will creation some hesitation in the market. But with Porter's skill and youth, some team will pad his wallet nicely.

18. Mike Wallace, Restricted Tender Assigned by Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Wallace isn't this far down on the list because he won't get paid; it's just questionable whether or not another team will pay him what he's worth.

The franchise and restricted free-agent tags often make going after tagged players so costly that it rarely happens, but this year, Mike Wallace could break that trend.

With top-end speed and averages of 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns per season, a number of teams would gladly spend a first-round pick to gain a player of his skill.

The top candidates for pulling the trigger on something like this would be the Ravens and Patriots. Both teams could use an upgrade at receiver, and both select late in the first round already.

The real trick would be writing a contract for Wallace that the Steelers wouldn't want to match. The "poison pill" clauses are now forbidden, so it'd have to be enough money to scare Pittsburgh off.

In that case, maybe it wouldn't be so hard. The Steelers are hurting for cap space and are clearly in the middle of rebuilding, with a number of veterans released this offseason.

If some team steps up for Wallace, he'll likely receive one of the top 10 free-agent contracts this year.

19. Marques Colston, Unsigned

At this rate, the Saints might have to rebuild simply based on the amount of talent they can't keep in town.

Already facing the loss of Tracy Porter and Carl Nicks, Marques Colston could also find his big payday elsewhere this season.

Colston became one of the biggest draft surprises of 2006, selected as a late seventh-round pick, only to break 1,000 yards receiving as a rookie. He's only missed that mark once in his six-year career.

These types of numbers should lock Colston in for a huge contract. Instead, he'll get a fraction of what he's truly worth due to injury concerns and talk that he's more a product of New Orleans' system.

Regardless of the talk, Colston is a solid, sure-handed receiver who'd improve any roster.

All these departures could have a serious impact on the Saints getting Drew Brees under contract; Robert Meachem is likewise expected to leave in free agency.

20. Mike Tolbert, Unsigned

First with Michael Turner, then Darren Sproles and now Mike Tolbert, the San Diego Chargers have a knack for finding quality running backs.

Too bad they can't seem to hold onto them.

Tolbert will bring a hard-nosed rushing element to whatever team he goes. Fantasy football players scream in frustration whenever he gets a touchdown, but his ability to find the end zone on short-yardage plays makes the head coach's job that much easier.

Plenty of teams with a speedy back on their roster (i.e. Kansas City, Tennessee) could use a young, reliable bruiser to share carries and earn the tough yards.

21. Michael Bush, Unsigned

2012 marks a solid free-agency period for north-south running backs.

In the modern game, tailbacks who make their living running between the tackles get one shot after their rookie contract to make any serious money. Their bodies just can't take the punishment and they disappear from the game in their late 20s.

For a player like Michael Bush, this is really the only chance. The fourth-round pick from Louisville took advantage of last year's injury to Darren McFadden and showed his ability to pound the rock.

Bush won't cash in on any mega deals, though. Mostly, that's simply the result of over-saturation of the market. With Peyton Hillis and Mike Tolbert in free agency as well, it's a buyer's market.

22. Scott Wells, Unsigned

Scott Wells is a top talent at center, but the Packers lack the cap room to properly compensate Wells for his skill.

Green Bay's cost-cutting move will net another team a great talent at an underrated position. Wells has just enough size at 6'2", 300 lbs. to control the point of attack, but can also work as a pulling center for counters and sweeps.

Plus, having just turned 31, Wells still has plenty of football ahead of him—perhaps five or six more years playing at a high level. Teams in need of help on their line could bring him in and not worry about their center position for some time.

23. David Hawthorne, Unsigned

2012 stands as a good year for teams looking for inside linebackers.

Another player likely on his way to a new team is David Hawthorne. A constant at starting linebacker since 2009, Hawthorne controls the middle of the field well. In three years starting, Hawthorne's snagged seven interceptions and not missed the 100-tackle mark.

The Seahawks would lose a solid advantage in run support should they let Hawthorne walk. With Steven Jackson and Frank Gore on the other side of the line of scrimmage twice a year, Seattle needs to ensure their run defense is top-notch.

To do that, they need to find a way to keep Hawthorne in the northwest.

24. Cortland Finnegan, Unsigned

No one can doubt Cortland Finnegan's skill or intensity as a football player. He's quick, consistent and reliable; in six seasons he's only missed three games.

But Finnegan will lose out on a premium contract because of his attitude on the field that helps feed that intensity.

In 2010, Finnegan set the standard for unsportsmanlike conduct, receiving three fines totalling $40,000. His on-field brawl with Texans' Andre Johnson stands as one of the most intense fights in recent NFL history.

General managers and coaches alike will hesitate on bringing a player with his reputation into their locker room, and it will show in Finnegan's new contract.

Still, with Jeff Fisher and Jim Schwartz both coaching teams in need of better cornerbacks, Finnegan should walk away from the table with a respectable contract.

25. Dan Connor, Unsigned

Dan Connor isn't exactly the top player in free agency this year, but he'll get some serious looks from teams needing an extra push in their linebacker corps.

The problem with Connor in Carolina isn't the money; it's the opportunity. The Panthers are fairly well stocked at linebacker and Connor will want an opportunity to start.

He'll find that this year in free agency, and a much better paycheck to boot.