5 Biggest Keys to San Francisco 49ers' 2012 NFL Free-Agency Strategy

With the NFL free-agency market set to open in a week, the 49ers have the comfortable position of proving they are willing to step forward with the team.

General manager Trent Baalke has said that taking care of “our own” is the first priority, and seeing the signing of C.J. Spillman and then Ahmad Brooks suggests that the Niners are doing just that. Brooks' signing, a $45 million contract extension, was the boldest statement.

With other players pending, the 49ers' strategy is still unfolding. At the same time, their strategy right after the end of the lockout last summer worked really well when Dashon Goldson, who turned down a five-year, $25 million contract for free agency, returned to the team for a one-year deal at $2 million.

It was a similar mode of operation with Carlos Rogers, who left the Redskins in free agency and found the market bereft of high bidders. He also signed with SF for cheap. Those players and others play a key part in the 49ers' free-agent strategy that we’ll run down here.

Alex Smith

Coach Jim Harbaugh said last summer he wanted Alex Smith. The reception among 49ers fans was mixed at best, but Harbaugh got Smith to sign a one-year deal. Smith then had his best year of his career, no doubt a result of the system employed by Harbaugh and his staff.

Now with Harbaugh saying he wants Smith back, and Smith more or less agreeing that he’d like to return, it seems like a done deal. Well, it seems pretty much that way since Smith caddied for Harbaugh in a pro golf tournament. It appears not a matter of if but how much. And that’s the issue.

Smith’s limitations are obvious: he has a decent throwing arm and is deadly accurate on intermediate throws and long passes down the middle. Outside the numbers and towards the sidelines however, is where his weaknesses lie. 

He also has good feet, knows the league, can read defenses and has the confidence of the team. He’s also a seven-year vet who is only 27 years old. That right there makes him very, very valuable. It suggests that his best years are still ahead.

So, again, it comes down to how much: $5 million a year, $7 million or $8 million.

The indication might be seen in the Brooks contract signed last week. Its total was $45 million, but only $17 million of it was guaranteed. Moreover, the cap hits on 2012 and 2013 were not much above $2.5 million, hardly big numbers to swallow.

Smith can sign an eight-year deal for $72 million, but the guaranteed money might be closer to $20 million, with the largest annual salaries geared toward the end of the deal. The $20 million will be spread over the course of the deal so as to minimize the cap hit.

Dashon Goldson

From Tuesday’s conference call with Ahmad Brooks, there was this telling quote that might resonate throughout the locker room (Quote courtesy of the 49er PR staff).

“I don’t know,” Brooks said about why he chose to sign early before free agency. “Just something was telling me to sign here. I feel like this is where I should be. These are the people that gave me a chance to go out there and get this contract.”

Goldson, who will be 28 next season, is also coming in his prime. He also has changed agents since last year’s failed run through free agency. The Niners pegged him with the franchise tag last week, which will bump his pay up to about $6.2 million for 2012. But Baalke has said that signing Goldson to a long-term deal is the team’s intention.

And behind that are the words of Ahmad Brooks, who was coming off a very good year and whose services no doubt would have attracted some attention. But he liked what he saw in SF. That might carry over to Goldson as well.

Carlos Rogers

He signed for just over $4 million. He has stated he also wants to stay in SF. Again, the issue is for how much. Rogers is a little older, so a deal over six or seven years seems unlikely.

It will be interesting to listen to the chatter coming out of Santa Clara this week to see if the team makes a move to sign Rogers or if he’ll wait until free agency so he can start hearing some offers. My guess is that the Niners might offer him a three-year deal worth $18 million—not in the same territory as Nnamdi Asomugha and Darrell Revis, but decent enough.

Joshua Morgan

Joshua Morgan.

The six-year veteran was the team's leading receiver when he broke his leg in October. Harbaugh likes him. His teammates like him. He’ll get signed, I believe, but like many players coming off an injury, it depends on whether he makes the team.

His salary won't be high, nor his guaranteed money or the cap exposure.

Wait and See

Two factors to consider what the 49ers will do through March. But there was a clue in a Bruce Feldman story about the amazing success of the 2008 University of Stanford recruiting class. Three players will likely wind up taken in the first 15 picks of this April's draft, an amazing record. Stanford has been touted as having a top five or even higher recruiting class in 2012.

The man who got that going was Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh revitalized the 49ers in 2011 with the same mindset that lifted Stanford from the bottom of the conference into a BCS elite team. That mindset or "culture of the clubhouse" carries over, and it seemed to play a big part in why Ahmad Brooks decided to re-sign with the 49ers before other teams could bid on him.

Also remember that Baalke’s moves last year during the limited free-agency period proved brilliant. He re-signed DT Ray McDonald, who had a very strong year. He then went out and got David Akers, who set an NFL record for field goals.

Granted, the Niner offense was limited, but they did get as much out of it as they could, thanks to Akers.

Then came the free agents: Goldson back on the team, Carlos Rogers and then later in camp, Braylon Edwards. Alas, Edwards didn’t pan out. But four out of five is pretty good, and Edwards’ contract was hardly costly to the team in terms of cap exposure.

Baalke can apply that same tact again, but he gets to play it from a stronger position. He can go to elite free agents like Mike Wallace of the Steelers to see what they get. And then he gets to play his cards — "here's a good deal but perhaps not the most money. But consider this. We were a one-dimensional team last year and we came within a whisker of making the Super Bowl."

"With you, we have a real strong chance to win and win big for years."

What team can say that?