New England Patriots: Offense Is the Problem During Playoffs, Not Defense

In the 2011-12 season, the New England Patriots offense accumulated 428 yards per game, good for second in the league.  They scored 32.1 points per game, which ranked third. 

Meanwhile, their defense allowed an eye-popping 411.1 yards per game, second worst in the league and just 0.5 yards per game better than last-placed Green Bay.  The defense does look a little better in terms of points allowed per game, where its 21.4 figure places it 15^th in the league—a mediocre standing, but certainly better than second to last.

Of course, points depend on field position, and New England’s defense usually gets a favorable start thanks to its potent offense. 

Looking at these statistics and the amount of star power in the offense (Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Logan Mankins, Brian Waters) as opposed to some of the castoffs (James Ihedigbo, Sergio Brown, Jeff Tarpinian) and out-of-position players (Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater) starting in the defense, especially the secondary, it’s easy to say that this New England team is heavily imbalanced and dependent on its scoring unit.

Not so fast.

In three playoff matches, the offense mustered 396 yards and 28.3 points per game.  Those look like very respectable figures, until you remember that 509 yards and 45 points came in the divisional-round matchup with the Denver Broncos, an 8-8 team that squeaked into the playoffs by virtue of playing in a weak division.  Take out that performance, and in the remaining two games (against the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants), they managed 339.5 yards and 20 points per game. 

That’s tougher competition, of course, but at the same time, that’s an undeniable drop in production.

And how did the defense manage during that time?

In those three games, the much-maligned Patriots' stop unit allowed 348.7 yards per game, good for fifth among playoff teams and better than the averages posted by San Francisco and Pittsburgh, two of the league’s elite defenses.  Better yet, they only allowed an average of 17 points per playoff game, behind only the Super Bowl champion Giants and a superb Houston squad.

Somehow, the playoffs are turning the Patriots into a bizarre version of themselves, where the offense is inadequate and the defense has to carry them.

This is not a new phenomenon, either.  In last year’s stunning playoff upset at the hands of the New York Jets, the Patriots offense managed only a field goal through over 44 minutes while the defense kept them in the game, including a gutsy stop deep in their own territory after a Brady pick was nearly returned for a score by linebacker David Harris. 

A wild fourth quarter led to a final score of 28-21, but anyone watching the game can attest to how sluggish the Patriots offense looked.  The same was true of their last two playoff losses, another one-and-done outing against the Ravens and the first Super Bowl loss to the Giants.

So what’s wrong with the Patriots offense?  Why is this consistently dominant unit falling short in big games?

The subject of choking in the playoffs and the question of why it happens are as old as they are difficult to explain.  Some attribute it to chance, and that’s a somewhat defensible stance since any kind of single-elimination tournament carries a high risk of fluke results.  After all, anyone can have a bad day, and in the NFL playoffs, that one bad day can end your season. 

But when a trend spans half a decade, as is the case with the Patriots offense stalling in the playoffs, the sample size is too large to simply discard the results as bad luck.  Clearly, something is wrong here.

It’s also hard to pin the bad results on any one component of the offense.  In the first three playoff losses, the offensive line struggled despite normally being one of the best in the league.  As a result, the Patriots spent a first-round pick on tackle Nate Solder, who enjoyed a solid rookie year, and signed veteran guard Brian Waters, who was excellent.  The line held up fairly well in the recent Super Bowl loss, though it did allow Justin Tuck to force a safety early on and sack Brady late. 

Rather, the biggest problems this time around were Brady’s accuracy late in the game, the inability of Deion Branch and Aaron Hernandez to handle routine passes on the final drive, and some very conservative play-calling that failed to procure any insurance points or kill off enough time.

Some have criticized the passing game’s dependence on possession receivers and tight ends, arguing that what they really need is a true deep threat.  While that certainly wouldn’t hurt, the Patriots lost another Super Bowl to the Giants when they had Randy Moss—arguably the greatest deep threat in the game’s history.

Perhaps the problem boils down not to strategy, but to psychology.  The offense as a whole is clearly pressing in big moments.  The once-unflappable Brady is missing open receivers and former Super Bowl MVP Branch is dropping easy passes.  Coach Bill Belichick has to find a way to ease the pressure from his players.

In the meantime, the Patriots will retool for another run.  As always, they have a boatload of draft picks, and most draft experts assume they will use the bulk of these picks to upgrade the defense.

Maybe that’s not what needs to be fixed.