2012 NFL Draft: Buffalo Bills May Be Bluffing About Robert Griffin III

Breaking news on Thursday may have disappointed some fans of the Buffalo Bills, but at this time of year, they should not take everything the organization says at face value.    

In an interview with the team's lead journalist, general manager Buddy Nix stated, unequivocally, that the Bills are not the mystery team that plans to trade with St. Louis for the No. 2 pick in April's draft.  With Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck likely going No. 1, the prize at No. 2 would be Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III.  

Nix is often described as a straight shooter, but he did not hesitate to make his point clear.  "It is absolute.  It's a no," said Nix, in a discussion with Chris Brown of BuffaloBills.com.  "You have to give up the farm.  We're not in that business."  

The announcement is a bit surprising because Buffalo was one of the teams that held a scouting combine interview with the Baylor quarterback.  A few hours later, Griffin let the whole country know about it, on the set of NFL Network.

So what should Bills fans make of all of this?  In this writer’s opinion, they should keep hope alive, because Mr. Nix may be bluffing.  

Shuffle through the slide show to find out why and please give us your opinion afterwards.

Consider the Source

Buffalo Bills lead journalist Chris Brown is a well-respected reporter and is one of the more knowledgeable men in the business.  So, there is no disrespect here.  In fact, Brown tends to ask hard-edged questions, more times than not.  

But Nix's response to the RGIII inquiry appeared to be a stern one, and I cannot help but wonder why he would want Brown to publish it.

Nix, by the way, served as the catalyst of a draft-day trade in 2004.  As general manager in San Diego, he selected quarterback Eli Manning with the Chargers' first overall pick, but traded him to the New York Giants for the rights to Philip Rivers.

The Giants have fared much better since, with two Super Bowl wins, but Nix undoubtedly knows a thing or two about franchise quarterbacks.   

Nix's conversation with Brown just seems strange.  Why would Nix choose to announce it that way?  

Why now?  

And how will he react when the local and national media do a follow-up on the topic? 

On the other hand, maybe Nix was caught off guard by Brown.  If he was, good for Brown.  But Brown is a Bills employee.  If Nix wished to keep his RGIII answer off the record, it would not be on BuffaloBills.com. 

Is It a Smoke Screen?

Isn't it a wee bit early to be showing your hand in the NFL offseason?  On the heels of free agency, you would think that an intelligent guy like Buddy Nix would wait a while, to see how things play out.  The Bills have glaring needs at defensive end, offensive tackle and wide receiver. Also, they will try to add depth at cornerback and to their linebacking corps.  

In mid-February, the Bills elected to roll over $21 million of free space from their 2011 salary cap to 2012.  According to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, that gives Nix approximately $32.9 million to spend.  

Also helping out Buffalo's cause was veteran cornerback Terrence McGee, who agreed to restructure the remaining two years of his contract to save the Bills money.

Nix plans to be aggressive in free agency, but when asked about it, his answers made Buffalo's No. 10 pick sound expendable.  "You get a little nervous with the tenth pick," Nix told WGR.  "When I say we’re gonna be aggressive, what I mean is, if there’s a difference-maker - not necessarily a position - but if there’s a guy that can come in here and immediately improve our football team, we’ll get in the hunt early this time,” Nix said.  

If the Bills can accomplish that, it would ease the pressure of finding a dominant player at No. 10 and Buffalo would have the option of using the choice in a trade.  They could then fill in the gaps with later round gems.  "In the mid-rounds, it's probably as deep as I've seen it," added Nix.  "So from the second round on, there will be some guys that can come in and help you quick."  

If Buffalo traded with the Rams, the No. 2 pick would be expensive.  According to Bob Matthews of the Democrat and Chronicle, it could take Buffalo's first and second rounds picks this year and next.  But over the past decade, the Bills have not exactly hit the jackpot with those selections (see page 2 of Matthews column).  With history as a guide, Nix should think twice, before passing on a opportunity that he may never get again.

Why so Serious?

In a hilarious show of team camaraderie, Steve Johnson, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bills COO Russ Brandon took to their twitter accounts on Monday morning, to announce Johnson's new long-term contract agreement with the team.

Prior to the signing, Fitzpatrick even promised to shave his head, if his teammate signed on the dotted line.  And when all was said and done, the Bills had their man, Johnson had his money, and his quarterback had a new haircut.

It took time and patience, but after all the posturing, Bills GM Buddy Nix came through with a five-year, $36.25 million deal that brings satisfaction to both sides.  Johnson's average yearly salary will be just under $7 million a year, but he is guaranteed $19.5 million, and will be paid $24 million over the first three years.  

In an interview with WGR Radio, Johnson was candid about his return to the Queen City.

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"To be completely honest, everybody in this league wants to see what's going to happen in free agency but I know where i wanted to be.  It wouldn't have made any sense...what's the point of looking if you know where you want to be?"

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Now the Bills need to convince another top free agent receiver to join him.  "It just makes you need another one," Nix told WGR, prior to the combine.  "We need one anyway. We'll probably get one in free agency or draft one."       

If Buffalo has something up their sleeves for a play on RGIII, it could lead to a soap opera at One Bills Drive.  The friendship between Johnson and Fitzpatrick is genuine, and the quarterback's lobbying obviously played a role in Johnson's ultimate decision.  But the Bills could still make the move and let Griffin sit for a year, behind the veteran.

On Sunday, NFL Network announced that other suitors are hardening their stance with the St. Louis Rams. 

The Browns announced that they're unwilling to give up both of their 1st round picks, to move up from No. 4 to No. 2. The Dolphins said they're "not eager to do business with the Rams", after being spurned by coach Jeff Fisher. And the Seahawks appear to be out of the running for a trade, because the Rams do not want to face Griffin in the NFC West. Meanwhile, the Redskins are now saying that they're unwilling to relinquish their 2nd round choice this year.

The Amish Rifle

Buffalo fans affectionately refer to Ryan Fitzpatrick as the "Amish Rifle", because of a scruffy beard he grows each season.  As the highly intelligent and fearsome leader of the Bills spread-style offense, he has also earned rave reviews from head coach Chan Gailey and GM Buddy Nix.  But Fitzpatrick has yet to return Buffalo to glory and he is generally considered to be a stop-gap solution at quarterback.  

Midway through last season, the Bills surprisingly signed Fitzpatrick to a new six-year, $59 million contract, but it was loaded with stipulations.

As Bleacher Report's own Matt Miller discovered, there is an opt-out clause in the deal that conveniently gives Buffalo the option to release Fitzpatrick.  Buffalo has until the seventh day of the new league year (March 19) to pay the quarterback a $5 million bonus.  That bonus activates the remainder of his deal.  But if the Bills do not pay it, they owe Fitzpatrick nothing, and he is free to walk, as an unrestricted free agent.      

Miller's December article discussed replacement options that include Texas A & M QB Ryan Tannehill and USC's Matt Barkley, but Barkley decided to stay in school for another season and would have to be considered next year.  

Miller may be spot on about Tannehill, who missed out on the combine due to a broken foot.  He should be fine for his Pro Day on March 29, and appears destined to be the third QB off of this year's board.  

I also agree with Miller's opinion that the Bills have no chance at Andrew Luck or RGIII with the 10th pick in the draft.  That is why a creative and lucrative deal is necessary, to move up to the Rams' No. 2 spot.  

SI.com's Peter King added to the Fitzpatrick/RGIII intrigue last week, when he included the Bills in his list of mystery teams that could deal for the pick.  Perhaps the two quarterbacks can co-exist.  As a Harvard grad, Fitzpatrick would be the perfect mentor for RGIII, who could slowly learn the intricacies of the Bills' offense. 

Super Slash

Chan Gailey's offense in Buffalo is a spread-style one like Baylor’s.  He is also considered an offensive guru who is not afraid to attack offenses with a mobile quarterback.  Gailey may be best known for turning Kordell Stewart into “Slash," during his tenure as Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator in 1996 and 1997.  

RGIII is more talented than Stewart, but there are clear similarities between the two.  RGIII tore up the turf at the NFL Combine with a 4.41 40-yard dash, but Stewart shined, too, with a 4.52 in 1995. 

Last year, the Bills made an attempt to fill the slash role, with the free-agent acquisition of Brad Smith, who came from the New York Jets.  Early on, he was active and impressive, as Gailey deployed Smith in the wildcat.  But the Bills' receiving corps suffered a slew of injuries and Smith was forced to relinquish his role. 

Recently, the Bills hired wildcat guru David Lee to serve as their new quarterbacks coach.  Gailey expects Smith to renew his slash-style role, but if Buffalo makes a move for RGIII, he could be expendable. 

The most intriguing thing about Gailey may be his opinion on the future of the quarterback position.  Take a close look at what he said in the book, "Blood, Sweat and Chalk", by Tim Layden: 

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"Over the next 10 or 15 years it's going to evolve, because the runner-thrower is the kind of quarterback that the college game is producing now.  You don't find a ton of the 6'-3", 6'-4", drop-back, stand-up passers. They're not in college, so we're not getting them up here."

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The Bills showed a keen interest in Newton, and likely would have chosen him at No. 3, if Carolina did not use the first-overall pick on the Heisman Trophy winner.   

Speed Kills

Robert Griffin III's world-class speed would fit nicely in Buffalo.  Ever since the days of O.J. Simpson, the Bills have looked for players who can outrun opponents, and they have plenty of them on their current roster.  Despite an injury-prone career, wide receiver Roscoe Parrish is well know for his elusiveness.  

The Bills also did their due diligence this off-eason, with the addition of former New York Jets wide receiver David Clowney.  Clowney is a true burner, who made the best of his opportunity with the Jets.  He also turned heads at the 2007 combine, when he ran a 4.36 in the 40-yard dash.   

If the Bills paired RGIII with the lightening-fast C.J. Spiller, their backfield would give defenses migraine headaches.  Spiller burst onto the scene last year, after backfield mate Fred Jackson succumbed to a broken fibula.  He totaled 561 yards, four touchdowns and 5.2 yards per carry.  

446 of Spiller's rushing yards came in the season's last six weeks.  He also chipped in 39 catches for 269 yards and two touchdowns.

Jackson is no slouch himself, and would aid in the maturation process of RGIII.  Before his injury, Jackson was on pace to be the NFL's Most Valuable Player, with 934 yards rushing on 170 carries.  He also spear-headed the Bills attack during their 5-2 start.  Jackson totaled six rushing touchdowns in 10 games, and matched Spiller's reception total with 39 catches. 

How Long Is Too Long?

16 years is a long time.  In the NFL, it is an eternity.  To this day, die-hard Bills fans still brag about Jim Kelly's stellar career and forgive him for some of his faults.  They remember when he was drafted by the Bills and ditched them for the USFL.  They recall the day he changed his mind and was welcomed back to Buffalo with open arms.  

But most of all, they remember his rifle arm, his linebacker-like mentality, and his leadership, despite four straight Super Bowl defeats.  "Machine-Gun" Kelly is in the Hall of Fame because he was Buffalo's savior, from the day he stepped on the field.  

With the brief exceptions of Drew Bledsoe and Doug Flutie, the Bills have not had a franchise signal-caller since then.

So, what is there to lose, when it comes to considering a difference-maker like Robert Griffin III?  

At just over 6'2", his height is adequate, but his intangibles are elite.  RGIII's arm is a rocket and his mobility is excellent, but his accuracy is what stands out.  He can make all the throws and in 2011, he proved it, with an unbelievable 72 percent completion percentage.  

Playing a part in 47 total touchdowns is Cam Newton-like, and we all saw what the Carolina quarterback accomplished as a rookie.

The Rams have announced that they are willing to consummate a trade before April's Draft.  If Buffalo stays put, will four or five draft picks make the Bills a playoff team for the first time in a dozen years?  Or are they better off using them to contend for the next decade.    

We have already discussed how RGIII would fit into Chan Gailey's offense.  If Gailey wishes to extend his career as coach in Buffalo, he should push his bosses to take the risk.

Now or Never for Ralph Wilson Jr.

He has fans and he has his critics, but Ralph Wilson Jr. will always have the respect of those associated with the NFL.  In 2009, Wilson was enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and fans came out in droves to hear his speech.  Even now, at age 93, he likes to go out in public to show that he still has his wits about him.  

Only a broken hip kept him away from watching his team perform last year.  It was the first time in 52 years that Wilson missed a Bills' home opener.

So how does Ralph want to go out?  

Many of Buffalo's critics would say as cheaply as possible.  But that argument is not always fair, for a man who has given his life and his pocketbook to the small blue collar town in Western New York.

Back in the Bills glory days, Wilson was far from a miser.  From Jim Kelly to Bruce Smith, he did what ever it took to sign and re-sign his best players.  Only in their latter years, did he have to refrain.  Wilson's willingness to contribute to charities is also impressive, yet rarely recognized.  

When Bills tight end Kevin Everett sustained a life-threatening spine injury in 2007, an experimental treatment was used to stabilize him.  Wilson donated millions of dollars to the program that invented the treatment.  It also saved Everett from permanent paralysis.    

Wilson may never get his chance to celebrate a Super Bowl win, but he would be satisfied to know that his team is in good hands.  If Robert Griffin III shuffled into Buffalo, he would give the team and its city a huge image boost.  His skill set may also save the franchise from skipping town, when Wilson passes on.