Fantasy Baseball 2012: 20 Early-Round Picks from 2011 You Should Not Draft

Fantasy baseball veterans know full well that a season, heck not even a good draft, is made in the first five rounds, but it surely can be broken if you miss on one of your top five players.

It’s easy to look back at mock drafts from the previous season and conclude that many of the so-called fantasy experts know little more than the rest of us when it comes to projecting future success. What it really tells us, however, is how fickle and cruel the game of baseball can be, as even some of the game’s elite players fail to consistently justify their draft positions. 

Be it injury, age, change of scenery, commitment issues or any combination of the four, the following is a list of players that come with gigantic “Buyer Beware” signs attached to their names.

I’m not suggesting that you pass on these players entirely, only that you should proceed with extreme caution when investing an early pick (snake draft) or substantial draft dollars (auction draft) in their 2012 performance.

Based on a standard 12-team, 5x5, head-to-head league format, the list is provided in descending order from the highest projected 2011 position to the lowest (projections provided by this 2011 ESPN.com Mock Draft 2.0).

Hanley Ramirez: Miami Marlins, 3B/SS (2011 No. 2 Overall Pick)

After a stellar four-year fantasy run that finally saw Ramirez reach the 100 RBI plateau in 2009, he has had back-to-back down seasons.  

His 2010 wasn’t bad enough to stop many experts from ranking Ramirez as the No. 2 player heading into last year, but a 2011 season plagued by injury, indifference and a 53-point drop in his batting average, leave many questioning how heavily he should be discounted in 2012.

There are plenty of reasons to like Ramirez heading into this season including the addition of Jose Reyes in front of him, the protection of Mike Stanton hitting behind him, dual position eligibility with his impending switch to third base, presumed good health and the fact that he just turned 28 last December. 

With all that said, if you invest a top five pick in him this year, given the disappointment accompanying his last two seasons, you will be taking a huge risk, and top five picks should not come attached with known risks.

Carl Crawford: Boston Red Sox, of (3)

Crawford’s transition from the relative obscurity of Tampa Bay, to the bright lights and lofty expectations of Fenway Park could not have gone any worse for him. 

Following a 2010 walk year, during which Crawford finally started to show some respectable power to accompany his blazing speed on the base paths, 2011 started off poorly following January surgery on an injured wrist, and he never quite got on track after that.

Crawford is only 30, and it’s very likely that 2011 was more of an anomaly than a sign of a player not quite ready for the big stage. Even still, he entered 2011 projected as high as No. 3, mostly due to the expectation that he would bat towards the top of a loaded Boston lineup. 

Like Ramirez, there’s too much uncertainty surrounding Crawford to justify another top five pick, maybe even a top ten.

David Wright: New York Mets, 3B (8)

Wright continues a trend of bright, young stars having promising careers derailed by health issues after a severe back injury cost Wright roughly 60 games last season. While he showed enough during his return to the lineup to indicate that the injury is not career threatening, there are plenty of other concerns that have nothing to do with Wright himself.

The Mets as a team are a mess, and there is little protection around him to justify his previous place as a top ten fantasy staple. Citi Field has also not been hitter friendly, and it is yet to be determined how substantial offseason changes to the park’s dimensions will aid Wright’s recent power outage since the park opened in 2009.

Like Ramirez and Crawford, Wright is still fairly young having just turned 29 this past winter, but injuries, plus little protection make it easy to pass on Wright at his 2011 projected draft position of No. 8.

Ryan Zimmerman: Washington Nationals, 3B (15)

Zimmerman’s performance has been fairly consistent when he’s been on the field, but staying on the field has been a big problem for the Nats' third baseman. He’s missed at least 20 games in three of the last four seasons including 50-plus in 2008 and 2011.

Of course none of that stopped the Nationals from giving Zimmerman a $100 million contract extension over the weekend, but that doesn’t mean you have to mirror their penchant for risk taking by investing a top 15 fantasy pick on him. 

Matt Holliday: St. Louis Cardinals, of (16)

Holliday missed 38 games last year with a variety of strange injuries, but they were all quirky enough to not be a great cause for concern about his projected 2012 performance. The biggest question mark is how the absence of Albert Pujols in the middle of the Cardinals’ order will affect the entire team.  

Most experts contend that the combination of a revived Lance Berkman, the emergence of David Freese and the addition of Carlos Beltran should be enough to keep the Cardinals’ lineup humming. However, Berkman's age, Freese’s small body of work and Beltran’s injury history are big enough reasons for pause.

Holliday has performed well enough in a Cardinals uniform to prove that his early career success was not simply due to the friendly confines of Coors Field, but massive turnover in St. Louis creates a murky outlook for the 2012 season. Discount accordingly from his 2011 projection of No. 16.

Alex Rodriguez: New York Yankees, 3B (17)

The list of things to like about A-Rod’s 2012 fantasy outlook is much shorter than the list of question marks.

At 36, Rodriguez is clearly on the downside of his career, and he’s missed at least 20 games in each of the last four seasons. His 30 home-run days appear to be behind him, he hasn’t stolen more than 18 bases since 2007 and he’s failed to hit above .286 since 2008.

Just because the Yankees are married to Rodriguez and his massive contract doesn’t mean you have to be. Yes misery loves company, but New York City is plenty big so your absence won’t be missed. A-Rod should no longer be considered a top 20 fantasy player, even top 30 is a stretch.

Josh Hamilton: Texas Rangers, OF (18)

Hamilton is one of my favorite players in the game today. I continuously find myself cheering for him to conquer his battles with substance abuse and finally put together another season in which he plays 150-plus games, which would be a first since 2008.

Unfortunately, sentimentality is not one of the five scoring categories linked to hitters, so despite Hamilton’s top ten talent, his 2011 projection of No. 18 is way too high for 2012, considering that he was coming off an MVP season in 2010.

Throw in Hamilton’s most recent alcohol lapse and the uncertainty surrounding his contract, and this could be a recipe for disaster for the Texas star. I’ve never wanted to be more wrong, but I’m not willing to risk my fantasy reputation on it.

Kevin Youkilis: Boston Red Sox, 3B (19)

Youkilis has never been confused with anybody’s idea of an Iron Man, having never played in more than 147 games during his eight-year career, and missing at least 26 games in each season since 2009.

While Youk was at least productive during previous injury-shortened seasons, 2011 saw his production start to suffer as the .289 career hitter posted an all-time low batting average of .258.

Perhaps the stability of getting engaged to Tom Brady’s sister this offseason will be the calm that Youkilis needs to get back on track. But, he’ll be 34 on Opening Day so time is not on his side.

Ryan Howard: Philadelphia Phillies, 1B (23)

Howard’s presence on this list seems obvious given the ruptured Achilles tendon that he suffered during the 2011 Divisional Series finale against the St. Louis Cardinals. But failing to look beyond the injury, which is expected to keep the slugger out until at least June, would be a mistake given his regular-season decline. 

Howard failed to reach the 35 home-run mark for the second consecutive season, and after hitting over .275 the past two years, also saw his batting average drop below .260. A low batting average can often be offset by truly elite power, but Howard’s days as one of the game’s top home-run threats appear to be over.

Even a healthy Howard wouldn’t have justified last year’s No. 23 projection. The injury makes him almost un-draftable.

Nelson Cruz: Texas Rangers, OF (24)

Cruz has the type of physique that fellow athletes admire and women swoon over, but being featured in ESPN’s annual body issue hasn’t translated to keeping the slugger on the field enough to be a consistent fantasy impact player.

Cruz has stretches where he teases owners with his combination of power and speed, and his performance during last season's playoffs were the epitome of Cruz at his best (minus a poorly played hit by David Freese that contributed to the Rangers’ historic World Series collapse).

Cruz’s injury history is enough to stay shy of investing a top 25 pick on him.

Chase Utley: Philadelphia Phillies, 2B (25)

Just two years ago, Utley’s career appeared to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory, but he’s missed 106 games over the last two seasons, leaving him as a shell of his former self.

Utley’s decline also happens to come at a time where more and more young second basemen have become viable fantasy weapons, pushing aside the once clear-cut fantasy favorite at the position.

At 33, with his power numbers taking a big hit, there’s no reason to believe that Utley will ever be the offensive threat he once was, even if he manages to stay on the field for 140 games or more. He doesn’t merit a top 40 pick at this point, let alone last year’s projected No. 25.

Joe Mauer: Minnesota Twins, C (32)

This one is quite simple. Until the Twins do right by their franchise cornerstone and hometown hero by getting him out from behind the plate defensively, Mauer has little chance of staying in Minnesota’s lineup often enough to impact the game with his prodigious bat. 

Although all reports indicate that Mauer is completely healed from his various 2011 ailments, the toll of catching will continue to be a threat to his health as long as that is his primary position.  

The injuries have also made it hard to get a read on his power output, making it unclear whether or not the 28 he hit in 2009 can ever be replicated. 

2011 had him ranked 32nd, but I’d keep him outside the top 40 for sure.

Shin-Soo Choo: Cleveland Indians, OF (33)

Choo was primed for a big 2011 following back-to-back 20 HR/20 SB/.300 AVG seasons in 2009 and 2010, but personal and physical issues derailed his progress.

Those issues appear to be behind him, but you have to wonder about the mental toughness of a player who let his off-the-field problems have that big of an impact on his game. 

Choo is only 29, so last year could have been an aberration, but stay away from him before the mid to late 40s just to be sure.

Adam Dunn: Chicago White Sox, OF (35)

Dunn had one of the more notable performance drop offs of any player in recent history. While never a reliable source for a decent batting average, Dunn’s power numbers were virtually written in stone during a nine-year run of 38-plus home runs and 92-plus RBIs. 

Without knowing exactly what led to his decline, it's hard to say with any certainty that Dunn will get his stroke back in 2012. He was the 35th ranked player heading into last season, but could be completely untouchable during this year’s fantasy drafts.

Jason Heyward: Atlanta Braves, OF (38)

Calling Heyward’s regression, following a promising rookie year, a sophomore slump would be putting it kindly. Count me among the many fantasy owners who were burned by his inconsistent and injury-riddled second season in the Majors. 

Players that experience a similar fluctuation between their first and second seasons often rebound nicely in year three, which becomes a better indicator of their future performance. Heyward is still only 22, and has, at times, justified the considerable hype that accompanied his 2010 MLB debut.

The upside is tantalizing, but last year’s 38th ranked player could be had 10-15 picks later.

Jayson Werth: Washington Nationals, OF (40)

If you had to bet on a NL East outfielder named Jason having a bounce back 2012, Heyward would be a much better bet than Werth.  

Virtually no one outside of Washington’s front office thought Werth was worthy of the $126 million contract he received prior to the 2011 season, and he did little to prove his doubters wrong.

Despite playing in 150 games, Werth had career lows in every major batting category except stolen bases, a decline that was highlighted by a 64-point dip in batting average. 

Werth will be 33 in early April, so while his struggles weren’t health related, it’s hard to see him turning it around. Although he could benefit from a healthy Ryan Zimmerman and the continued development of young hitters like Danny Espinosa, Ian Desmond and the eventual call up of phenom Bryce Harper.

The 40th pick is possibly a full two rounds too high for Werth.

Ichiro Suzuki: Seattle Mariners, OF (42)

It used to be that Ichiro’s batting average and stolen bases were of such elite status—and he scored enough runs to have value in that category—that you could live with the lackluster home run and RBI totals. Now age and a dreadful Seattle lineup have combined to become a drag on his fantasy value. 

The Mariners are moving him to the three spot in the order this year, which should give him better power numbers and relieve him of the pressures of being the table setter. However, with no legitimate threats hitting ahead of or behind him, it's doubtful the move will help stave off his decline.

Last year's ranking of 42 was understandably conservative, but it might be time to drop Ichiro another 15-20 places in the draft order.

Victor Martinez: Detroit Tigers, C/1B/DH (45)

This may come off as a lazy addition to the list, but everyone has that one guy in their league who is completely clueless about offseason injuries. I used to give that guy a mulligan on draft day and inform him that the player in question is seriously injured. Never again!

Consider this my one and only warning, so if your league does indeed include “that guy” please  send him a link to this column (unless you’re really cutthroat, in which case don’t and let him suffer). 

And if he has to ask for clarification on exactly what the extent of Martinez’s injury is, you should probably be looking to replace him with a more serious fantasy baseball participant.

Alex Rios: Chicago White Sox, OF (51)

Rios may, in fact, be the single most frustrating player in all of fantasy baseball. Every time he seems on the cusp of fantasy greatness, he turns in a stinker like the 2011 season. 

After never quite putting it all together in Toronto, Rios appeared to benefit from the change of scenery in 2010, his first full season in Chicago. He delivered a sneaky good 21 home runs and 34 stolen bases to go with a solid .284 average, and nearly 90 runs scored and RBIs.

2011 was one of Rios’ worst seasons in the majors including a miserable 13 homers, 11 stolen bases and a .227 average despite 537 at bats.  

At 31, Rios is still young enough to regain his 2010 form, but his spotty track record doesn’t suggest that a change is going to come.  

Ranked 51st in last year’s mock draft, I’m not sure he’s still worth a top 100 pick.

Jimmy Rollins: Philadelphia Phillies, SS (53)

Having a third Philly on this list goes a long way towards explaining why the team’s vaunted pitching staff was unable to carry them to postseason success.

Rollins re-upped with the Phillies this offseason and is still a valuable contributor to a title contender. However, the intangibles that help teams achieve World Series glory hold no value in fantasy land, and Rollins is far from being one of the top shortstops in the game anymore. 

Some of the production drop off can be attributed to the decline of the former stars hitting behind Rollins. He’s still a virtual lock for 30 stolen bases, but his 20-plus home run and 100 runs scored days seem to be over unless a full season of Hunter Pence can somehow make up for the loss of Ryan Howard and the fading Chase Utley.

Last year’s 53rd ranked player should probably fall more towards the end of the seventh or beginning of the eighth round, somewhere in the 84-96 range. 

Contact Geoff at [e-mail], follow him on Twitter @snglemarriedguy and read more of his takes on sports and pop culture at popflyboys.com