2012 NFL Mock Draft: Alshon Jeffery Will Plummet and More Guarantees

The NFL Draft tends to be one of the most unpredictable events in sports, but it is still fun to guess what certain teams might do and where certain players may land. The draft is and always will be an inexact science, and that is why we see busts selected in the first round, while Pro Bowlers can go in the seventh round.

Since there is a great deal of mystery involved with the draft, it gives every team hope that it can be a contender. The first round is sure to feature plenty of reaches and steals, and ultimately there will likely be both future Hall of Famers and afterthoughts drafted.

There are no real guarantees, but I'm going to make some anyway. In addition to a full first-round mock draft, here are three guarantees on what will happen in the opening round.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

There's a sticky situation in Indy with Peyton Manning's health still in question. Regardless of what happens, though, the Colts can't pass up a generational talent like Luck.

2. St. Louis Rams (4-12): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

The Rams have a lot of issues, but perhaps the biggest is a lack of offensive weapons. Quarterback Sam Bradford needs a target if he is going to bounce back from a dismal 2011 campaign, and Blackmon would certainly help.

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

While getting rid of Bryant McKinnie was likely the right thing to do, it left the Vikings with a big hole at left tackle. I think they'll address that need by nabbing Kalil.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Perhaps Colt McCoy needs more time to prove he can be a NFL quarterback, but he doesn't seem to have it. With that said, the Browns need a spark, and Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Robert Griffin III will provide that.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

After a 10-6 2010 season, the Bucs were an absolute mess in 2011. There are issues on both sides of the ball so Tampa will go with perhaps the surest thing in the draft in Richardson.

6. Washington Redskins (5-11): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Unless the Redskins are able to trade up into the top three, it would seem as though Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck and Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III will both be off the board by the time they pick. The 'Skins need a quarterback perhaps more than any team in the league, so I guarantee they will reach for Texas A&M gunslinger Ryan Tannehill.

Neither head coach Mike Shanahan nor the Redskins fans can stomach another season of Rex Grossman and John Beck, so something needs to be done at quarterback. Washington could choose to trade down and select Tannehill, but there is an inherent risk in doing so. The general rule of thumb in the draft is to take the player you want regardless of what others think of it.

If Washington is high on Tannehill, then he will be the pick at No. 6. Last year, Jake Locker went No. 8 despite being considered a late first-round prospect, while Christian Ponder went No. 12 despite being viewed as a second rounder. Those teams weren't afraid to pull the trigger and take a chance, and the Redskins won't be either.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

The Jaguars have a lot of issues on both sides of the ball, so they are in a best-player-available situation. Claiborne is undoubtedly the best cornerback in the draft, so he should be the pick.

8. Carolina Panthers (6-10)*: Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

Charles Johnson has filled in admirably since defensive end Julius Peppers left in free agency, but the Panthers need another pass rusher. They'll look to hit pay dirt with another Tar Heel in Coples.

9. Miami Dolphins (6-10)*: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

Left tackle Jake Long is among the best offensive linemen in football, but the Dolphins have issues everywhere else along the line. Reiff can step in and excel as a right tackle immediately.

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

Buffalo made a curious decision prior to the season, switching to a 3-4 defense despite having no pass-rushers to speak of. They are switching back to a 4-3, however, and need a player like Upshaw coming off the edge.

11. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)*: Devon Still, DT, Penn State

The Seahawks were in the middle of the pack defensively last season, so some improvements can certainly be made. Still has the potential to be a dominant defensive tackle at the next level.

12. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)*: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

The 2012 draft looks particularly strong when it comes to defensive players. While a lot of the hype is surrounding the likes of Morris Claiborne, Quinton Coples and Courtney Upshaw, Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year, as well as a Pro Bowler in the upcoming season.

While Kuechly may not be the most athletic player in the draft, nobody has the instincts and diagnosing skills that he does. He was a tackling machine in college and that seems likely to carry over to the next level. The Kansas City Chiefs would love to have him as he could be paired with Derrick Johnson to form one of the league's most dominant inside linebacker duos.

Kuechly isn't going to be a big winner at the combine or anything like that, but he can go sideline to sideline and is a relentless pursuer of the ball carrier. With all of those traits, Kuechly should have no problem racking up well over 100 tackles as a rookie and making an immediate impact.

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Even when the Cardinals went to the Super Bowl a few seasons ago, their offensive line was lacking. Either Kevin Kolb or John Skelton could use a blindside protector and Jonathan Martin fits the bill.

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-7): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

Dallas has a no-name offensive line, and while it was solid at times, it was also prone to breakdowns. DeCastro should serve as a stabilizing force both in the running and passing games.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Wide receiver DeSean Jackson seems to have overstayed his welcome in Philadelphia, meaning the Eagles need a replacement. Floyd would make a nice complement to Jeremy Maclin.

16. New York Jets (8-8): Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina

While the offense shouldered a lot of the blame for the Jets' shortcomings in 2011, the defense struggled as well. A pass-rusher is needed and Ingram is the best left on the board.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK 8-8): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The Bengals have a history of drafting troubled players, and Kirkpatrick comes with baggage, but if he can behave, then he and Leon Hall may form one of the best cornerback duos in the league.

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

The Chargers' linebacker corps has been depleted in recent years thanks to the departures of Shawne Merriman and Kevin Burnett. Perry should be a nice complementary pass-rusher to Shaun Phillips.

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

The Bears' offensive line was bad to begin with, and losing center Olin Kreutz certainly didn't help matters. Konz is the best center in the draft and should help fill the void.

20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Since losing the now-terrible Albert Haynesworth in free agency a couple years ago, the Titans have been looking for somebody to anchor their defensive line. Brockers has that kind of potential.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

It has become quite apparent that running back Cedric Benson is on his last legs, so the Bengals need new blood in the backfield. Miller is the most explosive back in the entire draft.

22. Cleveland Browns (via ATL 10-6): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Having already taken quarterback Robert Griffin III earlier in the round, it only makes sense to give him a target with whom he has instant chemistry in the form of the speedy Wright.

23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

The Lions certainly have needs on defense, but the offensive line can be improved as well. Jeff Backus is getting up there in age and Gosder Cherilus is nothing special, so Adams is a logical selection.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was beaten and battered relentlessly this season, so the Steelers need to address their offensive line issues. Glenn will provide a solid, steady presence.

25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

The Broncos arguably have the best pass-rush duo in the league with Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, but they need some help from the defensive line. Cox can take up blockers and free up the fearsome tandem.

26. Houston Texans (10-6): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Houston orchestrated one of the finest year-to-year defensive turnarounds in recent memory this season. The final piece of the puzzle is a playmaking safety, and Barron is just that.

27. New England Patriots (via NO 13-3): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

After a 1,500-plus-yard performance as a sophomore in 2010, South Carolina wide receiver Alshon Jeffery looked poised to be a very high pick whenever he decided to enter the NFL. While he is still almost a lock to go in the first round, his 2011 struggles made him go from a likely top-10 selection to somewhere later in the opening round.

Part of the reason why Jeffery caught just 49 passes for 762 yards this past season is because quarterback Stephen Garcia was dismissed from the team and a viable replacement wasn't found. Also, Jeffery was routinely double covered by the opposition. That is something he has to get used to, though, and he needs to use his ample 6'4", 229-lb. frame to create separation.

Jeffery's 2011 season threw up some red flags, but his past production and NFL body will prompt somebody to nab him in the first round. A very likely candidate is the New England Patriots as they have two first rounders and are looking for an outside threat to complement Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. If this pick comes to fruition, then Jeffery probably won't mind the fact that he fell in the draft,

28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

The Packers truly had issues all over the defense this past season, particularly when it came to defending the pass. Dennard would certainly toughen up the Green Bay defensive backfield.

29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Vontaze Burfict, LB, ASU

The Ravens' defense has been among the league's best for over a decade due to the organization's ability to revitalize the talent pool. They'll do it again by taking Burfict to learn under Ray Lewis.

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers

The 49ers have a great defense and running game, but the passing game is lacking. A speed threat who can stretch the field would really open up the offense, so Sanu would be an ideal fit.

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

It's no secret that the Patriots need help in the secondary, as they ranked 31st against the pass this season. Jenkins has some character concerns but he is a top-10 talent, making him a steal here.

32. New York Giants (9-7): Zach Brown, OLB, UNC

The Giants' defense was ravaged by injuries this season, especially at linebacker. Brown would give the G-Men excellent depth and would likely receive significant playing time immediately.