The Mets in the Playoffs? Yes, If They Play Their Wildcard Right

It's almost time for pitchers and catchers, and they will send the heart rate of baseball fans racing. But you will have to forgive Mets fans if they barely have a pulse. On the 50th anniversary of the franchise, the Mets enter the 2012 season expected to finish last in the National League East, playing more like the expansion franchise in 1962 than the World Series winners in 1969 and '86.

General manager Sandy Alderson has the team on an austerity plan, cutting $50 million from the payroll. That still leaves the Mets in the middle of the pack among teams in the majors, but it's not what is expected from big-market franchises.

And certainly not in New York where the Yankees play.

The Phillies and Braves remain at the top of the East with the Marlins and Nationals in hot pursuit. Both improved during the offseason. Mets fans will cringe every time they see Jose Reyes, their most dynamic and game-changing player, in a Miami Marlins uniform.

The Mets have been beset by physical and fiscal woes the past few seasons, and there are question marks about the health of key players and financial viability under current owner Fred Wilpon.

Wilpon was a victim of the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme and is also being sued by investors who say he knew about it all along. Fans probably wish he would sell the franchise, instead of stubbornly holding on for dear life.

Still, it isn't all darkness and gloom around the Mets. Hey, the Rangers won a pennant in a season when the franchise declared bankruptcy and a contentious sale of the franchise. And if everything breaks well, the Mets could be playing meaningful games in September.

Here's how it might happen. 

Ace in the Hole?

Santana missed the second half of 2010, and all of last season, after undergoing shoulder surgery, and the Mets never filled the void at the top of the rotation. Although he no longer is the pitcher he was with the Twins, or in his first year with the Mets, Santana can still provide stability and double-digit victories at the top of the rotation.

Chances are the team won't rush him, and the best case scenario is for Santana to be pitching at full strength by June 1. If he can bounce back to even 70-75 percent of what he was, the Mets will win games they lost last season. 

Back to the Wright Way

David Wright and Jose Reyes came up through the Mets' farm system together and were expected to be the cornerstones of the franchise for a decade or more. Now Reyes is gone, and Wright must be wondering if he is next. Oddly, he holds the key to answering that question.

CitiField's spacious dimensions—especially in the power alleys—robbed Wright of much of his power the past two years. But now the fences have been shortened, and Wright is expected to return to his days as a .300 hitter with 25-30 homers and 100 RBI.

That figures to be the minimum output the third baseman will have to supply if the Mets are to be a factor in the East. CitiField has played mind games with the "Face of the Franchise," and Wright has to show he has conquered his demons.

Otherwise, look for the Mets to deal him before the trading deadline this summer.  

Another Bay Watch

Entering the third year of a four-year contract, Jason Bay ranks as one of the worst free agent signings in Mets history. The former Mets farmhand is perhaps showing why the team didn't keep him in the first place.

Bay has hit 18 homers and driven in 104 runs combined during his first two years with the Mets. Consider how he hit 30-plus homers and drove in more than 100 runs in each of his last two seasons with the Red Sox, and you can see why the Mets are so disappointed.

He is another slugger who was psyched out by CitiField's dimensions and the team is counting on him regaining his stroke and staying healthy in 2012. If he can it will go a long way to give Mets fans hope, as Bay is a positive influence in the clubhouse and someone who plays hard every day. 

Can Ruben Fill the Hole at Short?

The first thing manager Terry Collins and GM Sandy Alderson need to do in spring training is sit down with Ruben Tejada and reinforce the notion that he is not expected to be another Jose Reyes. All he needs to do for the Mets is bat around .275, steal 25 bases and play a steady shortstop.

Tejada has impressed management during his time with the team the past two seasons, showing poise and uncommon savvy for someone who is only 22, especially when he filled in at short for the oft-injured Reyes last season. But this is different. Jose isn't coming back, and Tejada will shoulder the burden of anchoring the infield.

If he simply plays to his own potential, the Mets will have a solid infielder who could be their shortstop for a number of years. But if fans expect too much and Tejada presses, the Mets don't have any other options at this point.

Cue the Bullpen

After the Mets traded Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers in midseason last year, they had a revolving door of pitchers auditioning, and failing, in the closer's spot. Although Frank Rodriguez is not considered an elite closer, he should provide enough saves to give the Mets a chance to contend.

The Mets, in fact, shored up their bullpen, adding Jon Rauch and Ramon Ramirez in an effort to alleviate pressure on a young rotation. How well the bullpen crew protects leads, and closes the door, will go a long way in determining if the Mets are viable contenders.

We Like Ike

After a solid rookie season, in which he hit 19 homers and drove in 71 runs, Ike Davis was off to a great start in 2011, batting .302 with 7 homers and 25 RBI in only 36 games. Then he was injured in a freak infield collision with David Wright and missed the remainder of the season.

Davis pronounced himself healthy and ready to go this year. If he can pick up where he left off, he will supply a good glove at first and 25 homers or more. Davis and second-year outfielder Lucas Duda (.292, 10 HR, 50 RBI) have the kind of power to hit the ball out of CitiField's old dimensions. They might increase their power production this year, and if David Wright and Jason Bay can return to form, the Mets will have plenty of pop in the middle of their order. 

Bats in the Pelfrey

Enigma should be his middle name. Mike Pelfrey has confounded the Mets with his inability to harness his talent and be a dependable starter. "Doesn't trust his stuff," is a criticism you often hear about Pelfrey, who is an Iron Mike, however, when it comes to eating up innings. He was 7-13 last season with a 4.74 ERA and wasn't up to replacing Johan Santana as the No. 1 starter.

But if Santana can return fairly early in the season, and Pelfrey can return to his 2010 form when he was 15-9, he provides a solid starter who can help the Mets entertain wild-card thoughts. If Pelfrey has another disappointing season, however, it will be his last in a Mets uniform.

The Mets have a lot of ifs, but given their history and year-long celebration of their 50th anniversary, stranger things have happened. They can be simply Amazin.